Archive for Cliff Lee
Why Wilson Ramos and Not Fernando Martinez?
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With all the Cliff Lee rumors swirling around all the baseball “experts” make it sound like the Twins can just have Lee if they wanted by offering a package centered around catching prospect Wilson Ramos. Yet for the Mets they HAVE to include Jenrry Mejia because Fernando Martinez is not a strong enough centerpiece for a deal. Now I fully understand why everyone would want Mejia to be the centerpiece of the deal, but I can not fathom why it is people feel Ramos is strong enough to be the main piece and Martinez is not.
I think if you just take a look at their stats it is pretty obvious that not only is Martinez worthy of being the main part of a deal like Ramos he is also a better prospect than Ramos.
So despite playing at a higher level and putting up stats that are equal or if not better than Ramos at a younger age has some how turned Martinez into a worse prospect than Ramos. Not only that, but one of the biggest knocks on Martinez is that he has spent so much time in the minor leagues without being able to crack into the majors, but Ramos has been down on the farm even longer.It is also not like Ramos has been injury free throughout his minor league career spending time on the DL in 2008 and 2009.
Take a look at prospect guru John Sickels’ rankings of the two prospects over the last couple of years.
2010 – 4) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Power and defense are positives, main question is weak walk rate.
2009 – 3) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B: Good glove, strong bat.
2008 – Not ranked
2010 – 3) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: People are now too negative on him. The guy was the equivalent of a college sophomore last year. If a college sophomore got drafted and hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, people would be drooling over him. He’s made significant progress refining his tools. My main concern now is health and durability, which keeps him from ranking higher.
2009 – 2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with Flores if you prefer the guy closer to the majors.
2008 - 1) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+:.292/.332/.420 for Double-A Binghamton. Production improving, plate discipline still an issue, still very young.
It is also important to keep in mind that Sickels is a Twins fan so there is reason to believe he is sometimes a bit biased towards their prospects, as he should be, and yet Martinez has always been ranked higher and going into the year he actually agreed with me that F-Mart is taking unnecessary criticism.
Wilson Ramos was impressive during his brief stint in the majors early this year and he play a plus defense, but ever since going down to the minors he has been awful. I think Ramos is a great prospect and worthy of being included in a deal for Lee, but so should the “Teenage Hitting Machine”. Not to mention if the Mariners really want a closer Josh Thole is a pretty decent player who while he may not have the power or defense of Ramos hits for a higher average and has way better plate discipline. A deal of Fernando Martinez/Josh Thole/2 more prospects probably Kyle Allen and someone or F-Mart/Reese Havens/and a pitching prospect should be enough to get a deal done for lee. Any more than that and I would be a little upset with what the Mets traded.
A Look at Possible Rotation Trade Candidates
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1. Cliff Lee – Lee is by far the best pitcher in the group and having a fantastic season. He had a late start to his season because of an injury, but he is already 5-3 on a really bad team with a 2.55 ERA. The most staggering thing about Lee’s season so far is his K/BB statistic. Right now it sits 16.75. The next person on the list is Roy Halladay with a 6.13. Lee is on base to shatter the MLB record because frankly he just isn’t walking anyone. He has walked just 4 batters all season, which is good for a .46 BB/9. Lee is just doing everything you can ask of an ace pitcher. Winning games, giving up no runs, no hits, walking no one, striking guys out, and pitching deep into games. Right now he is averaging nearly 8 innings per start and already has 3 complete games in 10 starts.
The problem with Lee pitching so well is that it is going to cost a lot to get him. The Mariners don’t have to Lee because they will get 2 draft picks when he leaves via free agency. The one thing going for the Mets is that the Mariners were asking for bats in return so the Mets can still keep Jenrry Mejia. With Fernando Martinez just coming back from his injury two weeks ago it was perfect timing for the M’s to get a good look at him. The other main prospect being thrown around in talks is Wilson Ramos of the Twins. The Mariners are in need of a catcher, but F-Mart is certain;y the better prospect and the Mariners outfield isn’t too great either so he could surely help them up.
I understand the Mets have been reluctant to trade F-Mart in the past, but if there was ever the perfect opportunity to trade him this would be it. Martinez is highly unlikely to match Lee’s success in the majors and Lee is going to put the Mets over the top. Going into a playoff race with a rotation of Cliff Lee-Mike Pelfrey-Johan Santana is just devastating and will dramatically increase the Mets’s chances of getting to the ship.
2. Fausto Carmona – I really like Carmona and actually traded for him last season in my dynasty league (I am the Mets in the league). He reminds me a lot of Big Pelf. Both of them rely heavily on their sinkers that have similar velocity and get similar horizontal and vertical movement, each of them complements their fastball with a nice slider, and change up. The only difference is Pelf’s change up is now a split-fingered fastball while Carmona uses a more traditional change. It is interesting to note when Carmona had his best season in 2007 was the last time he threw a splitter regularly so it would be interesting if the Mets acquire him if they have him go back to throwing the split.
The problem with Carmona is that he is signed cheaply for a couple years so he is going to cost a pretty penny. I am not sure what the Indians would be looking for in return, but if it Jenrry Mejia I would balk at their asking price. This is a case where I would consider trading Fernando Martinez, but I would never be able to sell myself 100% on the idea.
3. Jeremy Guthrie - Guthrie is a very sticky situation. He is a solid middle rotation who will be under control until 2012, but the O’s are going to be looking for a return on a #2 type of pitcher. I like Guthrie and like Carmona traded for him in my dynasty league. His stuff is likely to play better in the National League and Citi Field where his fly balls aren’t going to carry out as much as they do at Camden. If he can be had for a reasonable price without having to give up any top notch prospects I am all for, but something tells me the O’s are going to want someone like Wilmer Flores for him and I just don’t think it would be smart for the Mets to do something like that.
4. Ben Sheets – I have always been a huge Ben Sheets fan and when the A’s signed him in the off season you know the only thing Billy Beane had in mind was to have Sheets show he was healthy so he could trade him for a couple of prospects. Sheets is having an okay season. He is 2-7 with a 4.95 ERA, but almost all his other numbers are on par with his career numbers. He is actually getting more ground balls than usual, the problem has been his control. He is walking way more batters than usual all the way up to a 3.81 BB/9 compared to his career average of 2.08. Part of the reason for the high ERA is the amount of home runs he has given up. His HR/FB percentage is all the way up to 12% since moving to the AL in Oakland compared to 7.7% over his last 3 years. I think a moved back to the NL could certainly help his numbers and like with Guthrie playing in Citi Field would definitely help his home run rate. I would really like if the Mets got Sheets because when he is on he is one of the best pitchers in the game and would certainly cost less than someone like Lee.
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