Are the Mets Interested in Kazmir or Not?

At 10:37 this morning


Then at 11:18

 

Call me crazy, but it has to be difficult to consider an offer that does not even exist. Nice job reporters.

What I think is going to go unnoticed in these tweets is the fact six teams are interested in him after watching him throw. My guess is he had to look pretty decent then for that to happen. Olney said that Kazmir had topped out at 89 mph and one scout even had 91 mph. Considering his peak velocity last year was about 87 mph that is a nice step forward.

I for one am in favor of bringing him in. I don’t see how it can hurt and if he turns out to be successful it can become a real positive story for a team that has been surrounded by negativity lately. After the amount of low

Grading the Omar Regime: The 2006 Draft

There were some complaints about the method I used to grade the 2005 draft so I am going to try and make some adjustments with this version. I am going to do everything I did last time, but in addition to those strategies I am going to take an individual look at the Mets picks in the top 10 rounds.

Although I personally detest when this is done, I will also include some good player the Mets could have taken with their respective pick if they were fortune tellers, so it is not like I am leaving anything out of the conversation. Note: The players had to be taken after the Mets pick in that round.

1st Round (18th overall): Lost pick as compensation for signing Billy Wagner. (Phillies drafted Kyle Drabek with the pick).

Well that certainly stings.

2nd Round (62nd overall): Kevin Mulvey, RHP – Villanova

Mulvey was considered a steal this late in the draft. Baseball America had said about him, “Mulvey doesn’t figure to last past the Phillies at No. 37 overall and could go before that”. He was a college workhorse, with good command three average to slightly above-average pitches, and could reach the majors quickly.

For the 2006 and 2007 Mulvey looked like the real deal. He was already in Triple-A by the end of his first full season and looked like he was only a few months away from contributing at the big league level. The Mets sold high on Mulvey and used him as a piece in the Johan Santana deal that summer.

In 2012 Mulvey seems to be a classic Quadruple-A player. He has not had much of a window to show his worth in the majors, but in his limited action he has been dreadful. Things look like they fell apart for him last year while in the Diamondbacks organization, but he is still just 26 even if at this point his career isn’t expected to amount to much at all.

Grade: If Phil Humber succeeded this one goes down as an incomplete for now.
Mets missed out on: Trevor Cahill, Justin Masterson, and Jon Jay.

3rd Round (94th overall): Joe Smith, RHP – Wright State

It is unusual for a small college reliever who was forced to walk on the team to get drafted this high, but Smith is an unusual pitcher. He adopted his sidearm delivery while in college and took to it immediately, seeing gains on his fastball velocity as well as added movement on his fastball and slider. His new tools allowed him to post a 0.75 ERA in college and the Mets were hoping he could move through the system quickly and help a team that was close to contention.

Smith did just that and won a spot in the bullpen out of spring training in 2007 to make him the second player from the 2006 draft class to reach the majors. He instantly became a fan favorite because of his success and funky delivery, however, after two seasons the Mets decided to trade Smith as part of the J.J. Putz deal in the 2008 off-season. The theory behind that one was to strengthen the bullpen…

Smith has continued his success with the Cleveland Indians and currently has the highest WAR of any player selected in the 3rd round.

Grade: Successful selection by the Mets.
Mets missed out on: No one

4th Round (124th overall): John Holdzkom, RHP – Salt Lake CC

This was the first head-scratcher of the draft. Holdzkom was looked at as a big guy with big time stuff, but he had no command and was considered a head case—he was academically ineligible in high school and dropped out of community college because he got into an argument with his coach. It was an overdraft to say the least.

As expected, Holdzkom showed the big stuff, but hadn’t a clue how to throw a strike. Eventually his poor mechanics and need to throw the ball through a break wall caught up to him and he needed Tommy John surgery in 2009. He came back briefly in 2010, but was released by the Mets in 2011.

To me Holdzkom will be nothing more than that guy who looked like Napoleon Dynamite. If for some reason you would like to read a report on Holdzkom’s potential before his Tommy John surgery, this was a great piece written by Mike Sullivan of Scouting the Sally.

Grade: A complete bust in every way possible. This one could have easily been called at the time of the draft.
Mets missed out on: Chirs Johnson

5th Round (154th overall): Stephen Holmes, RHP – University of Rhode Island

Holmes was as dominant as any college pitcher over his three year career, but only had average stuff that played up because of his command and bull dog mentality. Unfortunately tragedy of a close one struck Holmes just after he signed and he decided to return to school instead of playing professional ball. He attempted to come back with the Mets in 2008, however, in the process he tore his rotator cuff and has yet to pitch a professional inning to this day. I guess this is one of those that we will just never know. Sad.

Grade: Unknown?/No contest
Mets missed out on: David Herndon

6th Round (184th overall): Scott Schafer, RHP – Pasadena Memorial HS

Ah the legend of Scott Schafer. Schafer was considered an overdraft, so he quickly took his money and signed with the team. He had some upside, but was your cliche high school arm with some okay stuff, no polish, and projection.

Much to everyone’s surprise, he never allowed an earned run in his Mets career…because it lasted all of two innings. To put a long story short the kid was an ignoramus. For details of his escapades you can read them here.

Grade: Mark this one down as a major bust.
Mets missed out on: Andrew Bailey (in their own backyard!) and Bud Norris

7th Round (214th overall): Daniel Stegall, OF – Greenwood HS

Stegall is the type of pick Mets fans drool over. He was a two-sport star with a commitment to play quarterback and “The U” of Miami. He had a ton of tools and the Mets got him to sign for relatively cheap price. As tends to happen with those types of players they either turn into stars or never make it past A-ball. Unfortunately Stegall turned out to be one of the guys who never makes it past A-ball because his tools just never translate to the baseball diamond. He finished with a career line of .219/.296/.299 before being released in 2009.

Grade: Classic bust.
Mets missed out on: No one

Round 8 (244th overall): Nathan Hedrick, RHP – Barton Country CC

Hedrick was an imposing presence on the mound at 6’10″ and listed at 215 lbs., although it certainly looked like he weighed more. At the time of the draft he only threw in the upper-80′s and had a “frisbee” slider, but was a nice upside play because of the obvious projection in his frame and the fact that was posting great stats despite pitching to tough competition for the first time (he was home schooled in high school and never faced top guys). In his brief stint with the Mets he showed atrocious command with a 7.9 BB/9 and was released by the Mets in 2008.

Grade: Yet another classic bust.
Mets missed out on: Dellin Betances (This is an example of why I hate these things. Everyone new Betances was a top guy, but only the Yankees could sign him so the Mets didn’t really “miss out” here.) and Allen Craig

Round 9 (274th overall): Jeremy Barfield, OF – Klein HS

Barfield was an exciting pick because of his monster power potential with his unbelievable strength and great frame that he inherited from former All-Star father, Jesse Barfield. It seemed ironic that “scouts liked his makeup” because he was arrested shortly after being drafted for throwing his father down the stairs and hospitalizing him. As a result the Mets did not sign Barfield. He is currently in the A’s farm system and has a career line of .264/.334/.394.

Grade: I’m not sure if he counts as  a bust since he didn’t sign, but he is definitely close. Wash/No contest.
Mets missed out on: Ryan Kalish and Mark Melancon

10th Round (304th overall): Phillips Orta, RHP – Western Nebraska CC

I remember liking this pick a lot, which in hindsight is clearly a lot more than I should have. He had a mid-90′s fastball and nice curveball in his repertoire that gave him more potential than your average 10th round pick. He actually performed fairly well upon signing with the Mets a draft-and-follow, although as he tried to move through the system is command got worse and worse. Eventually the Mets released him in 2010. He finished his career with a 3.66 ERA and 82:132 BB:K ratio.

Grade: Bust.
Mets missed out on: Kris Medlen

Other picks of note:

13th Round (394th overall): Daniel Murphy, 3B – Jacksonville

This was just a tremendous scouting job by the Mets. Murphy just tore up the minor leagues and quickly made it to the show. He is now the Mets projected second baseman for 2012.

16th Round (484th overall): Tobi Stoner, RHP – Davis & Elkins

Davis & Elkins? I guess by default you have to give the Mets credit for finding a talent in Davis & Elkins that was able to make the major leagues. Stoner only has five MLB appearances and may never see another one after elbow surgery seems to have sapped him off his already fringe stuff. At one time though it did look like he could be a “Dillon Gee” for this ballclub.

26th Round (784th overall): Dustin Martin, OF – Sam Houston State University

Best known for being dealt, along with Drew Butera, for Luis Castillo. Has yet to crack a major league roster, but is still floating around with the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate. He could probably hold down a fifth outfielder role in the mold of Jason Pridie if called upon because of injuries.

37th Round (1114th overall): Josh Stinson, RHP – Northwood HS

A high school pitcher with potential if he made adjustments to his mechanics. He made those necessary corrections and he made the majors in a relief role last year. He didn’t put up stellar numbers, but he is on the 40 man roster and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to see more time with the Mets out of the pen.


Because I went in depth on the picks above, I am only going to give brief comments on the graphs, since they are pretty self explanatory, and then sum everything up.

Now to the statistical comparison side of the case…

I think it is kind of interesting that the exact same number of players from the Mets made the majors from the 2006 draft as the 2005 and that the average numbers of players (4.533 in 2005 and 4.6 in 2006) was practically exactly the same. This has nothing to do with grading the Mets draft just a fun tidbit.

The Mets five players ranks 11th best of all major league teams. The players who made it where Kevin Mulvey (2.62), Joe Smith (3.94), Daniel Murphy (13.394), Tobi Stoner (16.484), and Josh Stinson (37.1114).

This graphs demonstrates how this draft was dominated by a few teams and the majority of the draft classes were pretty terrible, I will  touch on this later. Again the Mets are right at the average and their 6.1 WAR is 12th best and is lead by Daniel Murphy (3.5 WAR) and Joe Smith (3.4 WAR).

The Mets aren’t still reaping the (minimal) rewards of this as they are from the 2005 draft. Murphy and Josh Stinson were the only ones to contribute and Stinson didn’t even do all that much to help the team win.

Summary:

Of the Mets picks in the top 10 rounds they have one success, five busts, one incomplete, and two no contests. It doesn’t take a theoretical physicist to figure out those are not good results.

The Mets had a clear type when drafting in the early rounds. They went heavy on pitchers, and more specifically pitchers who were behemoths and/or had a fastball but nothing else. That plan did not turn out very well.

Schafer, Stegall, and Barfield are the perfect examples of the danger of drafting high school players. Stegall based on the obvious fact that you just never know how their skills will develop and Schafer and Barfield go beyond that to the maturity and makeup factors.

The only of the early picks that have had any form of success were the two college guys at the top who were the “safer” picks.

The Mets desperately saved this class with outstanding job of scouting Murphy. Getting Stinson that late was nice, but he was pretty well known at the time of the draft. Murphy on the other hand had no buzz despite great performances at Jacksonville. This is one we owe to Tony Bernazard because I doubt the Mets even know who Daniel Murphy was had Murphy not played on Tony’s son’s team.

Overall, as evidenced by the WAR graph, this was a very weak draft for everyone—not just the Mets. Of the 30 first round picks only 7 have a career WAR above 1.5 for their career. That is not good. Granted some of the high school guys are just getting established and show some potential (Snider, Marrero, Jeffress, Drabek, Parmelee, Cogner), but they are far from a guarantee to switch this from a poor to a good first round.

If I had to grade this draft only by the Mets’s success at finding players, taking into consideration they had no first round pick, I could probably only give it a D+. If I take into account the relativity of how poor this class as a whole looks right now, I would be around a C+/B-. Because of that I think it is only fair to give Omar a grade somewhere in the middle.

Final Grade: C-

Mets Rank No. 26 In ESPN’s Future Rankings

ESPN did it’s first future power rankings and established where each team stands going forward for the next five years (subscription required). They used five categories for ranking the teams: majors, minors, finances, management, and mobility (of contracts) and gave a number grade to each category. They then averaged the five numbers together based on a weighted system: full weight was placed on the majors and minors, finances and management received 2/3 weight, and mobility received 1/3 weight.

When it was all said and done the Mets came in at No. 26, below the Pittsburgh Pirates…

My first problem with this system is system is putting equal weight on the majors and minors. Understandably, when talking about the future a good system is extremely important, but the odds of those guys developing as expected and being contributing major leaguers is extremely low. Due to the fact that players in the bigs are much more of a sure thing, full weight should be given to the majors with the minors getting 3/4 weight and then adjusting the rest of the categories accordingly.

It was the heavily weighted farm system that got the Pirates and Oakland Athletics the nudge over the Mets, despite the A’s dismantling their major league team this off-season and the Pirates not having a winning season in my lifetime. That just sits wrong with me.

The subject of trading David Wright is a discussion for another day, but if Jim Bowden is advocating trading him then I am going to believe we should keep him.

Grading the Omar Regime: The 2004-2005 Off-Season

To see the full effects of the changes made in the off-season by Omar we must first take a quick look at the 2004 New York Mets. In 2004 the Mets GM was Jim Duquette, the manager was Art Howe, and the team finished 4th in the NL East with a 71-91 record.

Opening Day Lineup: Kaz Matsui (SS), Ricky Gutierrez (2B), Cliff Floyd (LF), Mike Piazza (C), Mike Cameron (CF), Jason Phillips (1B), Karim Garcia (RF), Ty Wigginton (3B), and had Tom Glavine on the mound.

Season Finale Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Kaz Matsui (2B), David Wright (3B), Piazza (1B), Cameron (CF), Eric Valent (LF), Victor Diaz (RF), and Todd Zeile (C).

List of Pitchers to Make a Start on the Team: Tom Glavine (33), Steve Trachsel (33), Al Leiter (30), Jae Seo (21), Matt Ginter (14), Kris Benson (11), Tyler Yates (7), Aaron Heilman (5), Victor Zambrano (3), James Baldwin (2), Scott Erickson (2), Dan Wheeler (1).

List of Pitchers to Make a Relief Appearance (min. 5): Mike Stanton (83), Braden Looper (71), Ricky Bottalico (60), John Franco (52), Orber Moreno (33), David Weather (32), Dan Wheeler (31), Pedro Feliciano (22), Heath Bell (17), Mike DeJean (17), Bartolome Fortunato (15), Tyler Yates (14), Jose Parra (13), Vic Darensbourg (5).

Offensive Leaders (min. 150 at-bats): AVG – D. Wright (.293); SLG – D. Wright (.525), OBP – M. Piazza (.362), HR – M. Cameron (30), RBI – M. Cameron (76), SB – M. Cameron (22), R – M. Cameron (76).

Pitching Leaders (min 50 IP): IP – T. Glavine (212.1), ERA – B. Looper (2.70), W – S. Trachsel (12), L – T. Glavine (14), SV –  B. Looper (29), SO – S. Trachsel & A. Leiter (117), CG/SHO – K. Benson & T. Glavine (1)

Wow. If there is one word to sum up this team it would be sorry—despite the fact they had a payroll of $96.7 million. The team was cluttered with aging veterans and marginal role players, while the starting rotation was being anchored by a 39-year-old on his last leg and a 33-year-old No. 5 starter who was known more for his ability to make a game last forever above all else.

If I was to point out any bright spots I would say the bullpen looks like it wasn’t awful and by the end of the year things looked pretty exciting with the emergence of two young kids named Reyes and Wright, who you may have heard of.

Other than those two, it looks like is Omar did not have much to work with when taking over this team. Duquette had shipped away the team’s top prospect for a bad pitcher(the Mets were just six games back of the division lead at the time), the outfield was a mess outside of Cameron, there were questions about where Piazza could play defensively, and the starting rotation needed help in the worst way possible.

I will be grading all of the moves individually on their long term value and then grading Omar on how well he did to help the Mets for the 2005 season alone. Now onto the off-season…


Off-Season Moves:

  • The Mets changed the whole coaching staff (except Rick Peterson) and hired Willie Randolph, Manny Acta, Jerry Manuel, Sandy Alomar, Guy Conti, Rick Down, and Tom Nieto.
  • Minaya declined the $10 million dollar option on Al Leiter.
  • Signed Juan Padilla (league minimum).
  • Re-signed Kris Benson to a three-year, $22.5 million contract.
  • Traded Mike Stanton to the New York Yankees for Felix Heredia.
  • Signed Mike DeJean to a one-year, $1.15 million contract.
  • Signed Ramon Castro to a minor league contract.
  • Signed a 33-year-old Pedro Martinez to a four-year, $53 million contract.
  • Signed Chris Woodward to a two-year, $1.525 million contract.
  • Traded Vance Wilson to the Detroit Tigers for Anderson Hernandez.
  • Signed Marlon Anderson.
  • Signed Miguel Cairo to a one-year, $900,000 contract.
  • Singed Dae-Sung Koo to a one-year, $425,000 contract.
  • Signed a 27-year-old Carlos Beltran to a seven-year and $119 million contract.
  • Signed Roberto Hernandez to a one-year, $600,000 contract.
  • Traded Ian Baldergroen to the Boston Red Sox for Doug Mientkiwicz and cash.
  • Traded Jason Phillips to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Kaz Ishii.

Trades

The Good:

  • Ian Baldergroen for Doug Mientkiwicz: After losing out on the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes the Mets were left with a hole at first base and Mientkiwicz was a respectable option because of his defensive wizadry. Although he wasn’t great with the Mets, and ultimately got replaced by a rookie Mike Jacobs, Mientkiwicz was a cheap stop gap for the Mets and Baldergroen never made it past HiA so it would be hard to consider this a loss.

The Bad:

  • Mike Stanton for Felix Heredia: Stanton wasn’t very effective for the Yankees, but following his release and signing with the Nationals he was a very effective reliever, while Heredia made three appearances and then went on the disabled list for the rest of the year.

The Meh:

  • Vance Wilson for Anderon Hernandez: Neither player made very many appearances for their new team and neither were very effective in those appearances.
  • Jason Phillips for Kaz Ishii: Phillips posted a -0.9 WAR and Ishii posted a -0.2 WAR. So I guess technically the Mets got the lesser of two evils.

Grade: C+

Omar didn’t make any crippling trades, but also only made the Mets insignificantly better. Essentially a push.

Minor Free Agents

The Good:

  • (Declining) Al Leiter: Leiter jumped over to the Marlins on a one-year $8 million dollar deal and turned into a complete bust. He was DFA in the middle of the year and picked up by the Yankees. Leiter wound up finishing the year 7-12 with a 6.13 ERA.
  • Juan Padilla: Had an outstanding year in 2005 while playing for the league minimum, unfortunately he needed Tommy John surgery and never rebounded.
  • Ramon Castro: Omar took a shot on the former top prospect who had some off the field issues, wasn’t expected to even make the team, and then he went on to become the Mets long time backup catcher.
  • Marlon Anderson: Did a terrific job to hit over .300 as a pinch hitter. Anytime you can get that kind of production off the bench you take it.
  • Miguel Cairo: If you go solely by the numbers his season was subpar. However, Cairo does so many things well for a ballclub that cannot be judged on a scoresheet.
  • Dae-Sung Koo: Although he walked too many, he was a respectable lefty reliever and will forever be immortalized for the only hit and run scored in his career.
  • Roberto Hernandez: No one expected anything from Hernandez and he went on to have one of the best years of his career at 40-years-old. Biggest shock/bargain of the season.

The Bad:

  • Mike DeJean: The Mets tossed a million dollars his way and released him by June because of ineffectiveness.

The Meh:

  • Kris Benson: His career with Mets only lasted through 2005, but the Mets were the recipients of Benson’s most effective seasons. If the Mets held onto beyond 2005, there is a great chance I would have in “the bad” section which made me unsure where to place this signing.
  • Chris Woodward: His 2005 was very good, his 2006 not so good. Could say he earned every penny by being an average super utility man.

Grade: A-

2005 was a terrific year for Omar in finding role players. As the saying goes, you are only as strong as your weakest link so the ability to find contributing guys off the bench and in the bullpen cannot be overstated.

Blockbuster Moves

Pedro Martinez: This one is so hard for me too grade objectively. Pedro is my favorite player of all-time and from the minute he agreed to a deal he could do no wrong in my eyes.

Martinez delivered in 2005 and was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He carried that success over into 2006 and it wasn’t until that flukey incident against the Marlins when he was asked to go change his shirt because “his sleeves were too shiny” that he slipped in the dugout and injured his hip, which contributed to a series of injuries and Martinez making just 45 starts over the next two and a half years.

Statistically speaking Martinez only earned $33.3 million of the $53 million based on sabermetrics. He had shoulder injuries before signing the contract and the Mets best competition for his services was a three-year $40.5 million offer from the Red Sox so they did overpay a little for him. For those reasons I cannot give Omar anything above a B for this signing.

As much as fans like to refute this idea, the signing of Pedro did have an affect on the culture of the Mets. When Beltran signed with the Mets there were reports that Pedro coming to the Mets (along with $117 million) influenced Beltran to go to the Mets and it increased the Mets’ presence with international free agent in the Dominican Republic. Anyone who was a Mets fan at this time cannot deny the excitement Martinez brought back to the franchise after a few down years the 2000 Subway Series. Mike Steffanos noted following the 2005 season, “Martinez proved to be worth every penny, putting fannies in the seats and creating a buzz every time he took the hill.” That cannot be stated enough.

He was a bit of a disappointment and his health could have had an effected on the outcome on a few heartbreaking memories from this era, but I just can’t bring myself to call the signing of Pedro a complete bust.

Over the four-year contract Martinez went 32–23 in 79 starts, with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.

Grade: C+

Carlos Beltran: Things got off to a rocky start with Beltran in a Mets uniform. The reports said that he “allegedly” offered himself to the Yankees for a discount and settled for the Mets, which obviously did not sit well with fans. He then added on to the disdain with a mediocre season after being awarded all that money and it left a sour taste the mouth of the fans.

Beltran responded with one of the all-time great Mets seasons in 2006 that helped carry them all the way to the NLCS. Unfortunately Beltran will be remembered by all Mets fans for that flinch and freeze on an Adam Wainright curveball to end the season. It was a legacy defining moment, but outside of that moment Beltran’s Mets career was a success.

By the numbers he was worth $127.4 million so the Mets got their money’s worth out of him, despite Beltran battling with chronic injuries for the better part of two years. Ed Leyro did a marvelous job proving that Beltran was one of the best players in the history 0f the Mets franchise. Definitely worth the read to understand how great of a signing this was.

Beltran batted .280/.369/.500 with 149 homeruns, 550 RBIs, and 100 stolen bases over the seven years with the Mets, while earning five All-Star appearances, three Gold Gloves, and two Silver Sluggers.

Grade: A-

Summary/Overall

The Mets improved by 12 games in 2005 to finish with a record over .500 at 83-79. They finished 3rd in the NL East and were just six games back of the Wild Card. It was a dramatic turn around from 21 games back of the wild card in 2004.

Opening Day Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Kaz Matsui (2B), Carlos Beltran (CF), Mike Piazza (C), Cliff Floyd (LF), Doug Mientkiewicz (1B), David Wright (3B), Eric Valent (RF), and had Pedro Martinez on the mound.

List of Pitchers to Make a Start on the Team: Tom Glavine (33), Pedro Martinez (31), Kris Benson (28), Victor Zambrano (27), Kaz Ishii (16), Jae Seo (14), Aaron Heilman (7), Steve Trachsel (6).

List of Pitchers to Make a Relief Appearance (min. 5): Roberto Hernandez (67), Braden Looper (60), Aaron Heilman (46), Heath Bell (42), Dae-Sung Koo (33), Mike DeJean (28), Juan Padilla (24), Manny Aybar (22), Danny Graves (20), Royce Ring (15), Shingo Takatsu (9), Tim Hamulack (6), Mike Matthews (6).

Offensive Leaders (min. 150 at-bats): AVG - D. Wright (.306); SLG - D. Wright (.523), OBP - D. Wright (.388), HR - C. Floyd (34), RBI - M. Cameron (102), SB - M. Cameron (60), R - D. Wright & J. Reyes (99).

Pitching Leaders (min 50 IP): IP - P. Martinez (217.0), ERA - R. Hernandez (2.58), W -P. Martinez (15), L - T. Glavine (13), SV -  B. Looper (28), SO - P. Martinez (208), CG - P. Martinez (4), SHO – P. Martinez, T. Glavine, & A. Heilman (1).

While Willie Randolph wore out his welcome fast, I don’t think he was necessarily a terrible manager and if there was one mistake I think Omar made with the coaching staff it was keeping Rick Peterson around. I am sorry, but I think he did more harm than good when he was trying to “fix” young pitchers.

Thinking back to my time as a fan during 2005, I was extremely excited by the future of the team. Omar did a terrific job during his first off-season to bring in marquee names to compliment the young, upcoming players already on the roster who were ready breakout. It was perfect timing to try and start something bigger.

The starting pitching was a major issue in 2004 and he went out and brought in a first ballot Hall of Fame pitcher who served as a Cy Young candidate in 2005.

Seeing the moves he made I think he deserves more credit for the Mets’ success in 2005 than I originally thought he would.

Grade: B+

It was a great off-season for the Mets franchise.

Mets Leadoff Hitter, Is It Really A Debate?

Over at Mets Today Joe Janish tries to answer the question of who should be the Mets leadoff hitter now that Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan are gone.

He looks at the players ability to get on base and their ability to maneuver around the base paths, and comes to the conclusion that the Mets might be best to go ths unconventional route and use Jason Bay because of the lack of other options. It is a very difficult question to answer and an even more compelling solution so I wanted to give my own outlook on the situation.

I took a look at the career numbers of every player who hit leadoff during the MLB games from July 1st-3rd, 2011. There was no real rhyme or reason for the dates I picked, but I wound up with the numbers of 41 different players to compare the Mets projected starting eight with.

I was actually shocked with how low the overall OBP the 41 leadoff men had.

.328 is a pretty low number on-base percentage for a leadoff hitter and as the graph shows only one of the Mets projected starters is below that number. The ironic part is that Andres Torres has the most leadoff experience of anyone on the Mets. His career OBP is only .318, but this number was greatly effected by his 2011 season where he batted only .221 with a .312 OBP. In 2009 and 2010 he posted an OBP of .343. I am going to come back to this point later on.

I also wanted to go a little new school at take a look at a sabermetric stat that theoretically is just as important to look at for a leadoff hitter as OBP is.

According to Tom Tango the average hitter should have a .340 wOBA, but the leadoff hitters from the sample averaged just a .319 wOBA. Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole were the only two Mets to fall below that number and both happened to be listed as finalists by Janish for the leadoff spot.

With wOBA as with OBP,  David Wright and Jason Bay are right at the top of the list. Janish’s proposal to use an unconventional leadoff hitter looks extremely plausible with these numbers. Both have been the Mets best and most efficient hitters at getting on base over their career and both have respectable speed. After all, as kids the best hitter always bats first and their power would not be a complete waste because they are only guaranteed to come up with the bases empty once a game.

Alden Gonzalez recently tried to point out all eight teams that made the playoffs last year had unconventional leadoff men, but looking at the list the only Corey Hart and Ian Kinsler (and maybe Derek Jeter) are truly unconventional leadoff hitters in my opinion. With that said, those two actually have a relatively similar offensive skill set to Bay and Wright. I would be lying if I said the idea didn’t intrigue me at all.

It is that only other player I’ve really mentioned in this article that I think makes that intriguing idea obsolete.

Neither Bay or Wright have experience at hitting leadoff. For me that is a big deal. It is not so easy to spontaneously change the approach you have used your whole career and start setting the tone at the beginning of a game by watching more pitches than you are used to instead of jumping on the first good pitch you see. Add in the fact that you have two veteran players who have been shaky (to put it kindly) the last few years and I think this is the type of change that can only do more harm than good.

The only player who really has logged a significant amount of  hitting leadoff in the majors is the guy who the Mets got back for Angel Pagan—Andres Torres.

As I spoke about earlier Torres’s OBP dropped by .030 points last year fueled by a .050 point drop off in his batting average. The cause for the drop off in his average? Well looking at the numbers it seems like his achilles injury could have had a big part to do with it.

For his career his numbers have been equal hitting from either side of the plate. When he injured his left foot (his plant foot) in 2011 his numbers from the right side dropped off dramatically, while from the left side he only had a marginally small drop off in power. The injury looks to have caused him an inability to drive the ball with authority, which is why his line drive rate fell and consequently his BABIP.

Normally I am not a huge believer in BABIP being a tremendously reliable stat to look at, but Torres slightly improved his walk rate in 2011 and didn’t have any significant increase in strikeouts, so other than the injury being a contributing factor to a lack of power I do not see an obvious reason for his poor season.

Without Reyes the Mets have no perfect leadoff man. What they do have is a man who hit leadoff for a team that won the World Series. He is an aging player yes, but he has patience and is easily the fastest man in the Mets starting eight. Janish made a compelling case to go the unconventional route, but he left Torres out of his argument and that is why I don’t think is much of a debate. As long as Torres was able to heal 100 percent over the off-season and can produce in 2012 like he did in 2009 and 2010, then the leadoff position won’t be a major concern for the Mets in 2012 at least.

Prospects to Watch for Beltran Trade

If the Mets are truly interested in getting an “A” prospect in return for Carlos Beltran here are some guys they need to consider from potentially interested teams.

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Mets Want Big Prospect For Beltran, Can’t Blame Them

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I have been trying to push this point a lot in comments on Twitter and what not to those who say the Mets will not get much for Carlos Beltran. The fact of the matter is that All-Stars don’t show up on the trade market every year and a team in contention who needs a bat (I am looking at you San Francisco Giants) will need a bat and they won’t find a better way for trade than Beltran. If they really feel like they have a shot at a World Series, it would be unintelligent of them to pass on Beltran just because he is an impending free agent and they cannot offer him arbitration.

I plan on doing a post that looks at the top prospects who the Mets should ask for from Beltran suitors.