Archive for New York Mets
Grading the Omar Regime: The 2004-2005 Off-Season
Posted by: | CommentsTo see the full effects of the changes made in the off-season by Omar we must first take a quick look at the 2004 New York Mets. In 2004 the Mets GM was Jim Duquette, the manager was Art Howe, and the team finished 4th in the NL East with a 71-91 record.
Opening Day Lineup: Kaz Matsui (SS), Ricky Gutierrez (2B), Cliff Floyd (LF), Mike Piazza (C), Mike Cameron (CF), Jason Phillips (1B), Karim Garcia (RF), Ty Wigginton (3B), and had Tom Glavine on the mound.
Season Finale Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Kaz Matsui (2B), David Wright (3B), Piazza (1B), Cameron (CF), Eric Valent (LF), Victor Diaz (RF), and Todd Zeile (C).
List of Pitchers to Make a Start on the Team: Tom Glavine (33), Steve Trachsel (33), Al Leiter (30), Jae Seo (21), Matt Ginter (14), Kris Benson (11), Tyler Yates (7), Aaron Heilman (5), Victor Zambrano (3), James Baldwin (2), Scott Erickson (2), Dan Wheeler (1).
List of Pitchers to Make a Relief Appearance (min. 5): Mike Stanton (83), Braden Looper (71), Ricky Bottalico (60), John Franco (52), Orber Moreno (33), David Weather (32), Dan Wheeler (31), Pedro Feliciano (22), Heath Bell (17), Mike DeJean (17), Bartolome Fortunato (15), Tyler Yates (14), Jose Parra (13), Vic Darensbourg (5).
Offensive Leaders (min. 150 at-bats): AVG – D. Wright (.293); SLG – D. Wright (.525), OBP – M. Piazza (.362), HR – M. Cameron (30), RBI – M. Cameron (76), SB – M. Cameron (22), R – M. Cameron (76).
Pitching Leaders (min 50 IP): IP – T. Glavine (212.1), ERA – B. Looper (2.70), W – S. Trachsel (12), L – T. Glavine (14), SV – B. Looper (29), SO – S. Trachsel & A. Leiter (117), CG/SHO – K. Benson & T. Glavine (1)
Wow. If there is one word to sum up this team it would be sorry—despite the fact they had a payroll of $96.7 million. The team was cluttered with aging veterans and marginal role players, while the starting rotation was being anchored by a 39-year-old on his last leg and a 33-year-old No. 5 starter who was known more for his ability to make a game last forever above all else.
If I was to point out any bright spots I would say the bullpen looks like it wasn’t awful and by the end of the year things looked pretty exciting with the emergence of two young kids named Reyes and Wright, who you may have heard of.
Other than those two, it looks like is Omar did not have much to work with when taking over this team. Duquette had shipped away the team’s top prospect for a bad pitcher(the Mets were just six games back of the division lead at the time), the outfield was a mess outside of Cameron, there were questions about where Piazza could play defensively, and the starting rotation needed help in the worst way possible.
I will be grading all of the moves individually on their long term value and then grading Omar on how well he did to help the Mets for the 2005 season alone. Now onto the off-season…
Off-Season Moves:
- The Mets changed the whole coaching staff (except Rick Peterson) and hired Willie Randolph, Manny Acta, Jerry Manuel, Sandy Alomar, Guy Conti, Rick Down, and Tom Nieto.
- Minaya declined the $10 million dollar option on Al Leiter.
- Signed Juan Padilla (league minimum).
- Re-signed Kris Benson to a three-year, $22.5 million contract.
- Traded Mike Stanton to the New York Yankees for Felix Heredia.
- Signed Mike DeJean to a one-year, $1.15 million contract.
- Signed Ramon Castro to a minor league contract.
- Signed a 33-year-old Pedro Martinez to a four-year, $53 million contract.
- Signed Chris Woodward to a two-year, $1.525 million contract.
- Traded Vance Wilson to the Detroit Tigers for Anderson Hernandez.
- Signed Marlon Anderson.
- Signed Miguel Cairo to a one-year, $900,000 contract.
- Singed Dae-Sung Koo to a one-year, $425,000 contract.
- Signed a 27-year-old Carlos Beltran to a seven-year and $119 million contract.
- Signed Roberto Hernandez to a one-year, $600,000 contract.
- Traded Ian Baldergroen to the Boston Red Sox for Doug Mientkiwicz and cash.
- Traded Jason Phillips to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Kaz Ishii.
Trades
The Good:
- Ian Baldergroen for Doug Mientkiwicz: After losing out on the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes the Mets were left with a hole at first base and Mientkiwicz was a respectable option because of his defensive wizadry. Although he wasn’t great with the Mets, and ultimately got replaced by a rookie Mike Jacobs, Mientkiwicz was a cheap stop gap for the Mets and Baldergroen never made it past HiA so it would be hard to consider this a loss.
The Bad:
- Mike Stanton for Felix Heredia: Stanton wasn’t very effective for the Yankees, but following his release and signing with the Nationals he was a very effective reliever, while Heredia made three appearances and then went on the disabled list for the rest of the year.
The Meh:
- Vance Wilson for Anderon Hernandez: Neither player made very many appearances for their new team and neither were very effective in those appearances.
- Jason Phillips for Kaz Ishii: Phillips posted a -0.9 WAR and Ishii posted a -0.2 WAR. So I guess technically the Mets got the lesser of two evils.
Grade: C+
Omar didn’t make any crippling trades, but also only made the Mets insignificantly better. Essentially a push.
Minor Free Agents
The Good:
- (Declining) Al Leiter: Leiter jumped over to the Marlins on a one-year $8 million dollar deal and turned into a complete bust. He was DFA in the middle of the year and picked up by the Yankees. Leiter wound up finishing the year 7-12 with a 6.13 ERA.
- Juan Padilla: Had an outstanding year in 2005 while playing for the league minimum, unfortunately he needed Tommy John surgery and never rebounded.
- Ramon Castro: Omar took a shot on the former top prospect who had some off the field issues, wasn’t expected to even make the team, and then he went on to become the Mets long time backup catcher.
- Marlon Anderson: Did a terrific job to hit over .300 as a pinch hitter. Anytime you can get that kind of production off the bench you take it.
- Miguel Cairo: If you go solely by the numbers his season was subpar. However, Cairo does so many things well for a ballclub that cannot be judged on a scoresheet.
- Dae-Sung Koo: Although he walked too many, he was a respectable lefty reliever and will forever be immortalized for the only hit and run scored in his career.
- Roberto Hernandez: No one expected anything from Hernandez and he went on to have one of the best years of his career at 40-years-old. Biggest shock/bargain of the season.
The Bad:
- Mike DeJean: The Mets tossed a million dollars his way and released him by June because of ineffectiveness.
The Meh:
- Kris Benson: His career with Mets only lasted through 2005, but the Mets were the recipients of Benson’s most effective seasons. If the Mets held onto beyond 2005, there is a great chance I would have in “the bad” section which made me unsure where to place this signing.
- Chris Woodward: His 2005 was very good, his 2006 not so good. Could say he earned every penny by being an average super utility man.
Grade: A-
2005 was a terrific year for Omar in finding role players. As the saying goes, you are only as strong as your weakest link so the ability to find contributing guys off the bench and in the bullpen cannot be overstated.
Blockbuster Moves
Pedro Martinez: This one is so hard for me too grade objectively. Pedro is my favorite player of all-time and from the minute he agreed to a deal he could do no wrong in my eyes.
Martinez delivered in 2005 and was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He carried that success over into 2006 and it wasn’t until that flukey incident against the Marlins when he was asked to go change his shirt because “his sleeves were too shiny” that he slipped in the dugout and injured his hip, which contributed to a series of injuries and Martinez making just 45 starts over the next two and a half years.
Statistically speaking Martinez only earned $33.3 million of the $53 million based on sabermetrics. He had shoulder injuries before signing the contract and the Mets best competition for his services was a three-year $40.5 million offer from the Red Sox so they did overpay a little for him. For those reasons I cannot give Omar anything above a B for this signing.
As much as fans like to refute this idea, the signing of Pedro did have an affect on the culture of the Mets. When Beltran signed with the Mets there were reports that Pedro coming to the Mets (along with $117 million) influenced Beltran to go to the Mets and it increased the Mets’ presence with international free agent in the Dominican Republic. Anyone who was a Mets fan at this time cannot deny the excitement Martinez brought back to the franchise after a few down years the 2000 Subway Series. Mike Steffanos noted following the 2005 season, “Martinez proved to be worth every penny, putting fannies in the seats and creating a buzz every time he took the hill.” That cannot be stated enough.
He was a bit of a disappointment and his health could have had an effected on the outcome on a few heartbreaking memories from this era, but I just can’t bring myself to call the signing of Pedro a complete bust.
Over the four-year contract Martinez went 32–23 in 79 starts, with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
Grade: C+
Carlos Beltran: Things got off to a rocky start with Beltran in a Mets uniform. The reports said that he “allegedly” offered himself to the Yankees for a discount and settled for the Mets, which obviously did not sit well with fans. He then added on to the disdain with a mediocre season after being awarded all that money and it left a sour taste the mouth of the fans.
Beltran responded with one of the all-time great Mets seasons in 2006 that helped carry them all the way to the NLCS. Unfortunately Beltran will be remembered by all Mets fans for that flinch and freeze on an Adam Wainright curveball to end the season. It was a legacy defining moment, but outside of that moment Beltran’s Mets career was a success.
By the numbers he was worth $127.4 million so the Mets got their money’s worth out of him, despite Beltran battling with chronic injuries for the better part of two years. Ed Leyro did a marvelous job proving that Beltran was one of the best players in the history 0f the Mets franchise. Definitely worth the read to understand how great of a signing this was.
Beltran batted .280/.369/.500 with 149 homeruns, 550 RBIs, and 100 stolen bases over the seven years with the Mets, while earning five All-Star appearances, three Gold Gloves, and two Silver Sluggers.
Grade: A-
Summary/Overall
The Mets improved by 12 games in 2005 to finish with a record over .500 at 83-79. They finished 3rd in the NL East and were just six games back of the Wild Card. It was a dramatic turn around from 21 games back of the wild card in 2004.
Opening Day Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Kaz Matsui (2B), Carlos Beltran (CF), Mike Piazza (C), Cliff Floyd (LF), Doug Mientkiewicz (1B), David Wright (3B), Eric Valent (RF), and had Pedro Martinez on the mound.
List of Pitchers to Make a Start on the Team: Tom Glavine (33), Pedro Martinez (31), Kris Benson (28), Victor Zambrano (27), Kaz Ishii (16), Jae Seo (14), Aaron Heilman (7), Steve Trachsel (6).
List of Pitchers to Make a Relief Appearance (min. 5): Roberto Hernandez (67), Braden Looper (60), Aaron Heilman (46), Heath Bell (42), Dae-Sung Koo (33), Mike DeJean (28), Juan Padilla (24), Manny Aybar (22), Danny Graves (20), Royce Ring (15), Shingo Takatsu (9), Tim Hamulack (6), Mike Matthews (6).
Offensive Leaders (min. 150 at-bats): AVG - D. Wright (.306); SLG - D. Wright (.523), OBP - D. Wright (.388), HR - C. Floyd (34), RBI - M. Cameron (102), SB - M. Cameron (60), R - D. Wright & J. Reyes (99).
Pitching Leaders (min 50 IP): IP - P. Martinez (217.0), ERA - R. Hernandez (2.58), W -P. Martinez (15), L - T. Glavine (13), SV - B. Looper (28), SO - P. Martinez (208), CG - P. Martinez (4), SHO – P. Martinez, T. Glavine, & A. Heilman (1).
While Willie Randolph wore out his welcome fast, I don’t think he was necessarily a terrible manager and if there was one mistake I think Omar made with the coaching staff it was keeping Rick Peterson around. I am sorry, but I think he did more harm than good when he was trying to “fix” young pitchers.
Thinking back to my time as a fan during 2005, I was extremely excited by the future of the team. Omar did a terrific job during his first off-season to bring in marquee names to compliment the young, upcoming players already on the roster who were ready breakout. It was perfect timing to try and start something bigger.
The starting pitching was a major issue in 2004 and he went out and brought in a first ballot Hall of Fame pitcher who served as a Cy Young candidate in 2005.
Seeing the moves he made I think he deserves more credit for the Mets’ success in 2005 than I originally thought he would.
Grade: B+
It was a great off-season for the Mets franchise.
Mets Leadoff Hitter, Is It Really A Debate?
Posted by: | CommentsOver at Mets Today Joe Janish tries to answer the question of who should be the Mets leadoff hitter now that Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan are gone.
He looks at the players ability to get on base and their ability to maneuver around the base paths, and comes to the conclusion that the Mets might be best to go ths unconventional route and use Jason Bay because of the lack of other options. It is a very difficult question to answer and an even more compelling solution so I wanted to give my own outlook on the situation.
I took a look at the career numbers of every player who hit leadoff during the MLB games from July 1st-3rd, 2011. There was no real rhyme or reason for the dates I picked, but I wound up with the numbers of 41 different players to compare the Mets projected starting eight with.
I was actually shocked with how low the overall OBP the 41 leadoff men had.
.328 is a pretty low number on-base percentage for a leadoff hitter and as the graph shows only one of the Mets projected starters is below that number. The ironic part is that Andres Torres has the most leadoff experience of anyone on the Mets. His career OBP is only .318, but this number was greatly effected by his 2011 season where he batted only .221 with a .312 OBP. In 2009 and 2010 he posted an OBP of .343. I am going to come back to this point later on.
I also wanted to go a little new school at take a look at a sabermetric stat that theoretically is just as important to look at for a leadoff hitter as OBP is.
According to Tom Tango the average hitter should have a .340 wOBA, but the leadoff hitters from the sample averaged just a .319 wOBA. Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole were the only two Mets to fall below that number and both happened to be listed as finalists by Janish for the leadoff spot.
With wOBA as with OBP, David Wright and Jason Bay are right at the top of the list. Janish’s proposal to use an unconventional leadoff hitter looks extremely plausible with these numbers. Both have been the Mets best and most efficient hitters at getting on base over their career and both have respectable speed. After all, as kids the best hitter always bats first and their power would not be a complete waste because they are only guaranteed to come up with the bases empty once a game.
Alden Gonzalez recently tried to point out all eight teams that made the playoffs last year had unconventional leadoff men, but looking at the list the only Corey Hart and Ian Kinsler (and maybe Derek Jeter) are truly unconventional leadoff hitters in my opinion. With that said, those two actually have a relatively similar offensive skill set to Bay and Wright. I would be lying if I said the idea didn’t intrigue me at all.
It is that only other player I’ve really mentioned in this article that I think makes that intriguing idea obsolete.
Neither Bay or Wright have experience at hitting leadoff. For me that is a big deal. It is not so easy to spontaneously change the approach you have used your whole career and start setting the tone at the beginning of a game by watching more pitches than you are used to instead of jumping on the first good pitch you see. Add in the fact that you have two veteran players who have been shaky (to put it kindly) the last few years and I think this is the type of change that can only do more harm than good.
The only player who really has logged a significant amount of hitting leadoff in the majors is the guy who the Mets got back for Angel Pagan—Andres Torres.
As I spoke about earlier Torres’s OBP dropped by .030 points last year fueled by a .050 point drop off in his batting average. The cause for the drop off in his average? Well looking at the numbers it seems like his achilles injury could have had a big part to do with it.
For his career his numbers have been equal hitting from either side of the plate. When he injured his left foot (his plant foot) in 2011 his numbers from the right side dropped off dramatically, while from the left side he only had a marginally small drop off in power. The injury looks to have caused him an inability to drive the ball with authority, which is why his line drive rate fell and consequently his BABIP.
Normally I am not a huge believer in BABIP being a tremendously reliable stat to look at, but Torres slightly improved his walk rate in 2011 and didn’t have any significant increase in strikeouts, so other than the injury being a contributing factor to a lack of power I do not see an obvious reason for his poor season.
Without Reyes the Mets have no perfect leadoff man. What they do have is a man who hit leadoff for a team that won the World Series. He is an aging player yes, but he has patience and is easily the fastest man in the Mets starting eight. Janish made a compelling case to go the unconventional route, but he left Torres out of his argument and that is why I don’t think is much of a debate. As long as Torres was able to heal 100 percent over the off-season and can produce in 2012 like he did in 2009 and 2010, then the leadoff position won’t be a major concern for the Mets in 2012 at least.
Prospects to Watch for Beltran Trade
Posted by: | CommentsIf the Mets are truly interested in getting an “A” prospect in return for Carlos Beltran here are some guys they need to consider from potentially interested teams.
Mets Want Big Prospect For Beltran, Can’t Blame Them
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I have been trying to push this point a lot in comments on Twitter and what not to those who say the Mets will not get much for Carlos Beltran. The fact of the matter is that All-Stars don’t show up on the trade market every year and a team in contention who needs a bat (I am looking at you San Francisco Giants) will need a bat and they won’t find a better way for trade than Beltran. If they really feel like they have a shot at a World Series, it would be unintelligent of them to pass on Beltran just because he is an impending free agent and they cannot offer him arbitration.
I plan on doing a post that looks at the top prospects who the Mets should ask for from Beltran suitors.
Possible PTNBL in K-Rod Deal
Posted by: | CommentsAfter the Mets shocking trade of Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers last night (shocking at the time of the trade and team, not the deal itself), they have until September to pick two players off a list of prospects. The contents of this list are still unkown to the public so it is our job to speculate about what kind of return Sandy Alderson pulled in on his first major trade. Because they will be waiting till September, in order to have more time to scout the players, all 2010 draft picks will be in play, although has been reported they won’t get any of the “top top guys” aka Tyler Thornburg, the only one they have in my opinion. 
Pipe Dream Players
Tyler Thornburg, RHP – Was classified as a “Tim Lincecum wannabe” coming out of college. I have seen that term used a few times regarding 6’0″ and under pitchers in a condescending way and quiet frankly I do not understand why it is such a bad thing to try and emulate one of the most successful pitchers in baseball. Thornburg represented the Brewers in the Futures Game and hit 95 mph with his fastball. He also features a very good overhand curve. If the Mets somehow snagged him this would be a steal, but I don’t see it happening.
Wily Peralta, RHP – Husky pitcher with a 92-94 mph fastball that touches higher, good slider, and change. He has been great in Double-A this year outside of one month and with the Brewers lack of depth I can’t see them trading his arm.
Possible, But Unlikely
Eric Farris, 2B – A second baseman with plus speed (Stole 70 bases in 2009) who plays good defense. The Mets have their options at second base with Justin Turner, Ruben Tejada, and Daniel Murphy, but their never ending search for a franchise second baseman continues.
Kentrail Davis, OF – The Brewers first round supp. pick in the 2009 draft out of Tennessee. Davis tore up the Midwest League last year, but has struggled ever since his domotion to High-A midway through last year. Davis has plus speed and a short swing, but the power is not ideal for a corner outfielder. Even with the struggles this year, the Brewers are unlikely to deal him just yet.
Plausible Prospects That Intrigue Me
Kyle Heckathorn, RHP – A big right-handed pitcher who loves picking up the groundballs. Doesn’t have great strikeout numbers, but his stuff isn’t that bad. He throws his sinker in the low 90′s, toughing 94 mph. In the past he has reached higher with his four-seamer. Also throws a changeup and slider that are not nearly on the same level as his sinker.
Khris Davis, OF – Wasn’t a top prospect at draft time, but has mashed. He has showed tremendous power and a good approach at the plate.
Hunter Morris, 1B – Not the best position to target. Still, he has performed well and a move to the outfield isn’t too far out of the question.
Caleb Gindl, OF – Doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, however, he has great pitch recognition and is extremely solid all-around.
Taylor Green, 3B – It feels like has been around forever and is still stuck in Triple-A. He knows how to hit, but I get a Daniel Murphy type feel from him.
“Those” Guys
Eric Arnett, RHP – The 2011 1st round pick is still stuck in rookie ball due to his erratic command. The stuff is still there and the command has shown improvements this year.
Mark Rogers, RHP – Another former 1st round pick whose stock is way down because of command issues. All about harnessing the stuff. Not sure if I would even want to touch him at this point.
Two Years Later the Mets are Decisive Losers in Wagner Trade
Posted by: | CommentsOn October 7th, 2009 the New York Mets traded Billy Wagner to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for outfielder Chris Carter and first baseman Eddie Lora.
At the time of the trade it was clear the Mets were mostly making a salary dump for Wagner, but things turned out even worse than expected for the Mets. Chris Carter looked like he would turn into a solid bench player and Eddie Lora at least looked like a first baseman with some power potential, but less than two years later both players acquired are no longer part of the organization.
AP Photo/Rob Carr
In 100 games with the Mets in 2010 Carter was okay and hit .263/.317/.389 with four home runs and 24 RBIs. In the off-season the Mets decided to non-tender Carter in order to avoid paying him $200,000 plus his minor league salary and Carter decided to sign a minor league deal with the Rays, where he is thriving this year. Carter was exciting to watch in his limited time with the Mets, but didn’t produce enough to make the trade worth it.
To turn this trade into a complete bust, the Mets released Eddie Lora from the organization earlier this week after he hit .088 in 34 at-bats in rookie ball last year.
Onto what the Red Sox got out of the deal that makes the deal really sting.
Wagner was great down the stretch for the Red Sox in 2009 going 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA and striking out 22 men in 13.2 innings. Wagner wasn’t as sensational in the Angels sweep of the Red Sox in the ALDS, but he wasn’t terrible either, as it was two inherited runners Jonathan Papelbon allowed to score that inflated Wagner’s ERA.
But that is not all.
The Red Sox offered Wagner salary arbitration after the season and when he signed with the Atlanta Braves received the 20th and 39th overall picks in the 2010 MLB First-Year Player Draft. With those picks the Red Sox selected Kolbrin Vitek and Anthony Ranaudo.
Vitek has looked like nothing special early on, but Ranaudo ranks as the Red Sox No. 2 prospect according to SoxProspects.com, is one of the top pitching prospects in all of the minor leagues, and is one of the few prospects with legitimate “ace” starting pitching potential.
Had the Mets held onto Wagner they most likely would not have even offered Wagner arbitration and cited Billy’s request not to offer him arbitration so he is more attractive to a potential suitor as the reason, when it was pretty clear they did not want to have to pay more first round draft picks, already holding the No. 7 overall pick in the draft who was due for big payday. And on the off chance they did offer Wagner the arbitration and received the compensation picks I highly doubt they would have drafted Ranaudo because of his high price tag.
Nonetheless, it was money saving moves like this from Omar and the Wilpons that have prevented the Mets farm system from flourishing and becoming top notch. If the Mets could have paired up Ranaudo and Harvey from the 2010 draft they would have two starters in the minors right now with top of the rotation potential who were breezing through the minors.
It sucks to look back and imagine “what could have been”.
The Duda is Back and In the Lineup
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Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
After last nights win against the Milwaukee Brewers the Mets announced that Nick Evans had been designated for assignment. The Mets now have 10 days to trade, waive, or outright send him to the minors. If sent to the minors Evans can decide to opt out of his contract and become a free agent.
Evans was hitless in 12 at-bats for the Mets with five walks.
To fill out his spot on the roster the Mets have recalled slugging Lucas Duda who has been on an absolute tear in Buffalo.
“Lucas Duda won’t have the International League to kick around anymore. The Mets intend to recall the 1B/LF today to replace Nick Evans, the replacement for the inured Ike Davis. The 25-year-old Duda belted three homers and three doubles this week for Triple-A Buffalo as part of a 10-for-25 (.400) week that included a solid 4-to-5 walk-to-strikeout ratio. He’s been one of the IL’s hottest hitters since May 1, hitting .390, compiling a 1.415 OPS (74 PA) and bashing nine homers in 19 games” – Baseball America.
Duda was 2-for-20 earlier and struggled early on after the demotion, but his absolute tear as of late as made his season numbers in Triple-A look like this, .302/.414/.597, 8 2B, 10 HR, 24 RBIs, and a 23:27 BB:K. By the way his OPS is only a mere 1.011.
Duda will hit sixth and play left field in the game tonight. Jason Bay will be riding the pine. Hmm…
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