Archive for Zach Dotson
2011 Top 50 Prospects: Prospects 31-40
Posted by: | CommentsAll grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels
| 31 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 5-10 | WT: 160 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| SS | 19 | .266 | 0 | 29 |
Tovar’s best tool can not be seen or measured by these numbers as his defense is off the charts. He has received rave reviews from everyone that has seen him play the field making circus plays look routine. He has gold glove potential defense, but his biggest question marks will always be his size (5’10 160 is a generous listing) and bat.
| 32 | ||||
| • Highest Level: AA • Team: Binghamton Mets • B: L | HT: 6-3 | WT: 220 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | SO |
| LHP | 22 | 8-11 | 5.67 | 99 |
This is a situation where if the prospect fails I am putting it on the Mets’ shoulders. Carson was doing okay, but not dominating in St. Lucie so they move him up to AA where he gets bombed. Carson still has the stuff to succeed, but did terrible in the “AA test” so a move to the pen might be in store.
| 33 | ||||
| • Highest Level: Rk • Team: Kingsport Mets • B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 165 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| OF | 21 | .319 | 4 | 24 |
While Rodriguez is a little old for Kingsport he finally began to put his tools together last year. I am always a little weary of the power numbers prospects put up in Kingsport, but I am trying to stay positive of the former second round pick. Next year will decide if he is a real prospect or not.
| 34 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 6-3 | WT: 195 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | SO |
| RHP | 21 | .6-8 | 5.24 | 53 |
I was high on Allen entering 2010, but he was just awful for St. Lucie. He walked more (54) than he struckout (53) and did not get nearly as many groundballs as he had in the past. He gets the benefit of the doubt because he was pitching with a back injury, but I am not too excited about his potential anymore.
| 35 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 6-1 | WT: 215 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| C | 24 | .291 | 4 | 43 |
The older German product started coming around with the bat in 2010. He is already an average to above average defensive catcher and if he can sustain the new offensive production he could develop into a major league back up catcher.
| 36 | ||||
| • Highest Level: AA • Team: Binghamton Mets • B: R | HT: 6-3 | WT: 220 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| 3B | 24 | .306 | 10 | 51 |
Campbell has very quietly turned into a nice bat for the organization. He plays adequate defense at third and has a good approach at the plate that held up in the jump to AA.
| 37 | ||||
| • Highest Level: Rk • Team: GCL Mets • B: R | HT: 6-4 | WT: 186 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | SO |
| RHP | 19 | 4-4 | 3.38 | 34 |
The results were okay on the surface, but not spectacular. He is going to need to up the strikeouts and the stuff suggests he will do it in the future with already a low 90′s fastball and flashes of plus change-up. The projection is there for him to become a legitimate prospect only time will tell.
| 38 | ||||
| • Highest Level: Rk • Team: GCL Mets • B: L | HT: 6-1 | WT: 180 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | SO |
| LHP | 20 | 0-1 | 3.31 | 18 |
One of the few Mets overslots in recent years actually pitched well during his brief time flashing good K rates and keeping the balls on the ground, but was suspended for PED’s. Will need to move quickly when he returns.
| 39 | ||||
| • Highest Level: – • Team: – • B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 195 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| 3B | 16 | – | – | – |
One of the big international free agents in 2010 for the Mets. Sanchez is a big third baseman with plus to plus-plus raw power, but hwo might need to move to first base. He was the 15th best Latin American prospect.
| 40 | ||||
| • Highest Level: – • Team: – • B: R | HT: 5-11 | WT: 180 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| OF | 16 | – | – | – |
The other main attraction from the IFA class. Lupo was the 25th best ranked prospect form Latin America and is also considered to have plus to plus-plus raw power.
Mets Top Prospects: Prospects #21-30
Posted by: | CommentsFor an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page. I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.
21. Zach Dotson| SP | HS | Age – 19 | Drafted – 13th Round 2009 (C)
Big projecteble lefty prep lefty taken in this year’s draft and one of the few over slot picks by the Mets. Already has a good enough fastball just needs to refine his change-up. Very althetic and is my sleeper pick for 2010.
Perfect World Projection – #3 starter
More Likely Outcome – #4/5 starter
NO STATS
22. Dillon Gee | SP | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 21st Round 2007 (C)
Gee is no fireballer, but he knows how to pitch and get things done with superb command. I thought he had a shot to pitch on the Mets last year and then he got injured and that all went down the drawn. If he has a successful campaign early in AAA he has a shot to come up later during the year.
Perfect World Projection – #4 starter
More Likely Outcome – #5 starter/Middle relief
| TEAM | W-L | ERA | G/GS | IP | SO | BB | GB% | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bisons | 1-3 | 4.10 | 9/9 | 48 | 42 | 16 | 41% | 4.07 |
| TOTAL | 1-3 | 4.10 | 9/9 | 48 | 42 | 16 | 41% | 4.07 |
23. Brant Rustich | SP | HiA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2007 (C)
Huge guy standing 6’6 230 lbs with the stuff to go along with it. His big size and big stuff have provided good results when healthy. The problem is he is always hurt. This is going to be a crucial year in his development as a prospect. My advice is move him back to the pen full time.
Perfect World Projection – Top Set-Up man/Closer
More Likely Outcome – Middle relief
TEAM W-L ERA G/GS IP SO BB GB% FIP
St. Lucie Mets 1-1 2.45 19/3 48 46 17 54% 2.44
TOTAL 1-1 2.45 19/3 48 46 17 54% 2.44
24. Zach Lutz | 3B | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 5th Round 2007 (C)
Just a professional hitter. He knows what he is doing with a compact swing, but can’t play much defense. Think of him as a Daniel Murphy type of player (although I think he has a better shot to stick at 3rd than Murph).
Perfect World Projection – Solid Regular
More Likely Outcome – Role player/great pinch hitter
| TEAM | AB | R | 2B | HR | RBI | .AVG | .OBP | .SLG | BABIP | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Lucie Mets | 356 | 46 | 19 | 11 | 62 | .284 | .381 | .441 | .330 | .157 |
| Binghamton Mets | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .207 | .324 | .241 | .273 | .034 |
| TOTAL | 385 | 46 | 20 | 11 | 64 | .278 | .378 | .426 | .325 | .148 |
25. Aderlin Rodriguez | 3B | GCL | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (C)
The Mets big international free agent signing of 2008. He has filled out a bit more than other Latin signees at 210 lbs and already has shown good power. He has been an absolute pitcher in the field, but was also recovering from a broken wrist so we will see if that had anything to do with it next year.
Perfect World Projection – All-Star 3rd baseman
More Likely Outcome – MLB player
TEAM AB R 2B HR RBI .AVG .OBP .SLG .BABIP .ISO
GCL Mets 62 5 3 1 10 .290 .389 .387 .370 .097
TOTAL 62 5 3 1 10 .290 .389 .387 .370 .097
26. Jordany Valdespin | 2B | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C)
All tools right now, Valdespin has a world of talent but got into some of the field trouble that caused the Mets to suspend him several times and have him seem to “disappear”. He has good speed and has shown a decent amount of pop.
Perfect World Projection – MLB 2nd baseman
More Likely Outcome – MLB role player
| TEAM | AB | R | 2B | HR | RBI | .AVG | .OBP | .SLG | .BABIP | .ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSL Mets | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .333 | .421 | .600 | .357 | .267 |
| GCL Mets | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .174 | .208 | .174 | .200 | .000 |
| Brooklyn Cyclones | 68 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 5 | .279 | .329 | .397 | .353 | .118 |
| Savannah Sand Gnats | 153 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .320 | .366 | .477 | .390 | .157 |
| TOTAL | 259 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 27 | .297 | .350 | .436 | .360 | .139 |
27. Tobi Stoner | SP | MLB | Age – 25 | Drafted – 16th round 2006 (C)
Start who gets away with fringe stuff at best. What he is able to do well is incorporate a 4 pitch arsenal that he can throw for strikes. If he can refine his curve or slider a little more he has a shot to stick as a starter.
Perfect World Projection – #5 starter innings eater
More Likely Outcome – Middle relief
TEAM W-L ERA G/GS IP SO BB GB% FIP
Binghamton Mets 2-2 2.68 7/7 47 28 13 40% 4.24
Buffalo Bisons 7-7 3.96 16/16 97.2 64 34 42% 4.15
New York Mets 0-0 4.00 4/0 9 5 3 37% 5.84
TOTAL 9-9 3.59 27/23 153.2 97 50 40% 4.25
28. Robbie Shields | SS | SSA | Age – 22 | Drafted– 2nd round 2009 (C)
Was highly regarded after his sophomore season, but fell down some draft boards after a subpar junior season. Was terrible in Brooklyn, but he still has good tools and I thought he looked better in Brooklyn then his stats will lead you to believe. He would rank higher if not for Tommy John surgery which could make the predicted move off of short come sooner rather than later.
Perfect World Projection – MLB starting shortstop
More Likely Outcome – Bench player
TEAM AB R 2B HR RBI .AVG .OBP .SLG .BABIP .ISO
Brooklyn Cyclones 146 14 4 1 9 .178 .269 .267 .221 .089
TOTAL 146 14 4 1 9 .178 .269 .267 .221 .089
29. Eduardo Aldama | SP | Rk | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C)
Young Latin player with a live arm was fairly successful in Kingsport. He strikes out a lot of batters and maintains a nice GB% giving him a great combo of K’s and GBs.. Serious sleeper for 2010.
Perfect World Projection – #3 starter
More Likely Outcome – Middle relief
TEAM W-L ERA G/GS IP SO BB GB% FIP
Kingsport Mets 5-1 3.79 12/12 61.2 57 23 55% 3.46
Savannah Sand Gnats 0-1 21.00 1/1 3 3 2 55% 7.53
TOTAL 5-2 4.62 13/13 64.2 60 25 55% 3.56
30. Carlos Guzman | RF | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – UFA 2006 (C)
Very underrated prospect. He is a New York boy who went undrafted, but has done nothing but hit since he signed with the Mets. A big kid with great power numbers for the FSL. Hopefully he doesn’t go the Brahiam Moldonado route and take five steps back this season.
Perfect World Projection – MLB outfielder
More Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder/AAAA player
TEAM AB R 2B HR RBI .AVG .OBP .SLG .BABIP .ISO
St. Lucie Mets 472 59 28 15 64 .290 .346 .453 .337 .163
Binghamton Mets 23 2 0 1 3 .130 .200 .261 .133 .131
TOTAL 495 61 28 16 67 .283 .343 .444 .329 .162
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