Archive for Steven Matz
2011 Top 50 Prospects: Prospects 21-30
Posted by: | CommentsAll grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels
21. Akeel Morris | SP | GCL | Age – 18 | Drafted – 10th Round 2010 (C+)
Part of me wanted to get him into the top 20, but I guess I’ll save that for next year. Extremely young prospect with a big arm showed he had a little more polish than what cost him to last until the 10th round. Probably the prospect most poised for a “breakout” season.
Best Case Outcome – (Too early) #2 Starter
Most Likely Outcome – Relief arm/Career minor leaguer
22. Brad Holt | SP | HiA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (C+)
His season was just disgustingly awful. No command of his pitches is costing him dearly and how does a player regress when getting demoted to go play in a less talented league and in our better pitcher’s park? Stuff and pedigree is the only thing keeping him up here.
Best Case Outcome – #5 starter
Most Likely Outcome – Relief arm/Career minor leaguer
23. Jefry Marte | 3B | LoA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)
He’s still young, but at some point he is going to have to start hitting again like he did back in ’08 in the GCL. There just hasn’t been much power or average and he doesn’t play great defense to make up for that.
Best Case Outcome – Starting 3rd baseman
Most Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer
24. Steven Matz | SP | DNP | Age – 19 | Drafted 2nd Round 2009 (C+)
Didn’t pitch last year because of Tommy John Surgery. I still like his stuff and potential as I am not as worried about young pitchers having TJS anymore.
Best Case Outcome – #3 starter
Most Likely Outcome – #4 starter/reliever
*No Stats*
25. Brian Harrison | 3B | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 13th Round 2010 (C)
My favorite draft pick from the 2010 class after the initial round guys. If he can stay healthy he has a chance to sky rocket up this list. A great hitter with good power. Remember this name and don’t sleep on him.
Best Case Outcome – Starting 3rd baseman
Most Likely Outcome – Bench player
26. Josh Satin | 2B/1B | AA | Age – 26 | Drafted – 6th Round 2008 (C)
Has done nothing but hit since being drafted his only downfall is his age. I’ve liked him since seeing him in Brooklyn and think he can become a useful MLB player.
Best Case Outcome – Starter on bad team
Most Likely Outcome – Bench player
27. Erik Goeddel | P | GCL | Age – 22 | Drafted – 24th R0und 2010 (C)
Another late round pick who can really move up in the prospect world if he can remain healthy. Big time fastball and slider, but has some arm troubles and had to be shut down last year after just 1 inning because of soreness.
Best Case Outcome – #3 starter/closer
Most Likely Outcome – Set up man
28. Jordany Valdespin | 2B | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C)
Stuck behind some players on the depth chart, but the Mets liked him enough to add him to the 40 man roster and keep him safe from the Rule V draft and avoid another Jesus Flores incident. Still a bit of an enigma, but he has talent with this being a crucial season for him.
Best Case Outcome – Bench player
Most Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer
29. Ryan Fraser | CL | SSA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 16th Round 2010 (C)
Big armed reliever whose didn’t fare that well in college. Things changed with the switch to wood bats and he dominated the NYPL with his fastball. Looked real good in person. Like his stuff a lot.
Best Case Outcome – Set up man
Most Likely Outcome – middle reliever
30. Robbie Shields | SS | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2009 (C)
Hit very well coming off TJS. Will need to push through the system pretty quickly at his age, but he has the potential to do so. His minor problem is the chances of him sticking at short dropped dramatically with his TJS. Position will be important for his bat.
Best Case Outcome – Bench player
Most Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer
Mets Top 50 Prospects: Prospects 11-20
Posted by: | CommentsFor an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page. I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.
11. Jeurys Familia | SP | LoA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)
Good pitchers build standing 6’3 185 lbs with room to add some more muscle. He throws a fastball at 90-93 mph touching 94 with good movement. He uses a slurve type breaking ball at 78-80 mph that he needs to tighten up if he wants it to be a true out pitch in the bigs. His worst pitch by far is his 81-83 mph change up with little movement.
Perfect World Projection – #3 starter
More Likely Outcome – #4 starter
TEAM W-L ERA G/GS IP SO BB GB% FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats 10-6 2.69 24/23 134.0 109 46 53% 3.45
TOTAL 10-6 2.69 24/23 134.0 109 46 53% 3.45
12. Steven Matz | SP | HS | Age – 18 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2009 (C+)
The Mets top pick from the 2009 draft has some serious upside. The big 6’2 lefty is a New York native who probably would have went higher in the draft had he lived in California or Florida. He has three pitch arsenal that features a 88-90 mph fastball that has topped out at 93. Also throws a change up, curveball, and newly added slider.
Perfect World Projection – #2 starter
More Likely Outcome – #4 starter
NO STATS
13. Ruben Tejada | SS | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 2006 IFA (C+)
Young, udnersized slick fielding shortstop from Panama only a generous 5’11 165 lbs. He swings for contact, but isn’t quiet the slap hitter of Luis Castilllo, but knows what to do with the glove. Could move to 2nd, but will have competition no matter where he goes with Jose Reyes in NY and Reese Havens in the minors.
Perfect World Projection – Average shortstop with the bat, but has great defense
More Likely Outcome – Great defensive shortstop with no bat
TEAM AB R 2B HR RBI .AVG .OBP .SLG .BABIP .ISO
Binghamton Mets 488 59 24 5 46 .289 .343 .381 .321 .092
TOTAL 488 59 24 5 46 .289 .343 .381 .321 .092
14. Juan Urbina | SP | HS | Age – 16 | Drafted – IFA 2009 (C+)
The son of former major league pitcher Ugeth Urbina. Hopefully one day he will get the same nickname as his father “Butcher”, but for cutting up Philly hitters not actual people(or at least chasing them with knives). I always like a young pitcher whose best pitch is a change up and is able to pump out a fastball at 90 mph already.
Perfect World Projection – #2 starter (?)
More Likely Outcome – #4 starter
NO STATS
15. Cesar Puello | OF | Rk | Age – 18 | Drafted – 2007 IFA (C+)
Big, strong kid who signed along with Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte with the Mets in 2007. He is the only one still in rookie ball, but this is mostly do to the injury bug. Has above average speed to go along with an above average arm he does everything pretty well. Major sleeper in 2010 could break out big if he can stay healthy.
Perfect World Projection – All-Star caliber outfielder
More Likely Outcome – Everyday MLB outfielder
TEAM AB R 2B HR RBI .AVG .OBP .SLG .BABIP .ISO
Binghamton Mets 198 24 6 1 17 .298 .372 .429 .380 .131
TOTAL 198 24 6 1 17 .298 .372 .429 .38 .131
16. Eric Niesen | SP | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2007 (C+)
Smaller lefty with a filthy fastball. It has good velocity coming in in the low 90′s and touching the mid 90′s, but it is so effective due to its late life and movement. Has ridiculous late tailing actual that breaks in on the hands of lefties. His slider also has potential of being a plus pitch with with good, tight downward tilt.
Perfect World Projection – #4 starter
More Likely Outcome – LOOGY
TEAM W-L ERA G/GS IP SO BB GB% FIP
St. Lucie Mets 3-4 3.28 11/11 57.2 49 16 46% 3.53
Binghamton Mets 4-7 4.66 16/16 83.0 85 41 39% 3.64
TOTAL 7-11 4.11 27/27 140.2 134 57 42% 3.58
17. Jefry Marte | 3B | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)
This ranking might be a bit harsh, but so was Marte’s 2009. He hit an abysmal .233 and his BABIP wasn’t even that low at .291, he simply just did not hit. Right now this is playing out as one of the cases the Mets rush a prospect to the point of failure. Still has age and upside, but he is going to have to show some more offense in 2010 to make up for his terrible defense.
Perfect World Projection – Slugging 3rd baseman
More Likely Outcome – Everyday 3rd baseman
TEAM AB R 2B HR RBI .AVG .OBP .SLG .BABIP .ISO
Savannah Sand Gnats 485 58 21 6 41 .233 .278 .338 .396 .105
TOTAL 485 58 21 6 41 .233 .278 .338 .396 .105
18. Eric Beaulac | SP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 9th Round 2008 (C)
My personal favorite and an extremely underrated prospect. New York native and Mets fan doesn’t have the most or more consistent stuff, but gets the job done. His fastball as been clocked as low as 86 mph and as high as 94 mph, but mostly stays in the 88-90 mph range. His best pitch is a slider which has a good downward bite at 81 mph and is a true strikeout pitch. The lack of a change up lead most to believe he is best suited for a bullpen role as does Beaulac himself.
Best Case Outcome – #4 starter
More Likely Outcome – Relief pitcher
TEAM W-L ERA G/GS IP SO BB GB% FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats 7-7 2.95 26/19 116.0 133 41 48% 3.45
TOTAL 7-7 2.95 26/19 116.0 133 41 48% 3.13
19. Robert Carson | SP | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – 14th Round 2007 (C)
I actually think I might be ranking him a bit low here at 19. Sure has the stuff and stats to be up there Allen and Familia, but just isn’t quiet as polished. Fastball sits 88-90 touching 92 and hitters can’t seem to square it up. Also uses a 84-86 mph slider and 78-80 mph change up. Even if he has pubicly stated he doesn’t look for the strikeout he needs to strikeout more batters. Love the ground balls.
Perfect World Projection – #3 starter
More Likely Outcome – #4/5 starter
TEAM W-L ERA G/GS IP SO BB GB% FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats 8-10 3.21 25/25 131.2 90 45 57% 3.65
TOTAL 8-10 3.21 25/25 131.2 90 45 57% 3.65
20. Scott Moviel | SP | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2007 (C)
Looks like a tree trunk on the mound being listed anywhere from 6’9 to 6’11 and 245 lbs. Actually had a pretty solid year considering he was trying to recover from knee surgery. Needs to work on his mechanics and command as the stuff is already there.
Perfect World Projection – #3 starter
More Liketly Outcome – #5 starter/Set up Man
TEAM W-L ERA G/GS IP SO BB GB% FIP
St. Lucie Mets 4-5 3.92 13/13 64.1 46 24 47% 3.81
TOTAL 4-5 3.92 13/13 64.1 46 24 47% 3.81
Callis and Fitt On Mets Draft
Posted by: | CommentsJim Callis and Aaron Fitt of Baseball America did a draft chat about two weeks ago and answered two questions regarding the New York Metropolitans. The first question came from the “Mets first pick Steven Matz” ;)
Steven Matz (Flushing, NY): Was I worth the 72nd pick by the Mets or should they have gone for a better talent with signability issues?
Aaron Fitt: I’ve got no problem with the Matz pick; he does have a lot of upside, and the consensus in the Northeast was that he was a late second- to third-round talent. Matz has run his fastball up to 94 from the left side and shown a good breaking ball at times, and there’s tons of projection with him.
…For starters I obviously know it wasn’t really Steven Matz just getting that out of the way. I agree with Fitt and think this was kind of a dumb question. Matz was an overslot to begin with. He is going to for somewhere in the million (1.3 millionish is my guess), which is end of the first or 1st round supp money and he is a young upside, projectible lefty. Who else would you have liked with signability issues? Austin Maddox who fell into the 30′s or Max Stassi who fell to the 4th? I really like taking the hometown boy with upside he was definitey “worth it”…
Mookie (Queens, NY): Can the Mets and other teams afford to lose their first round pick every year and still hope to have a decent farm system?
Jim Callis: Sure, provided your willing to spend on first-round talents who fall in the draft. The Mets haven’t shown much willingness to do that, though.
…That’s always been my biggest beef with the Mets always taking the slot pick and never going over slot. I think they did a little better job at that this year drafting a bit more high school players and already signing Chase Greene, Nelfi Zapata, and Jeff Glenn. The didn’t, however, jump on Stassi or Maddox who both fell much further then exected because of $$$….
Mets Select Steven Matz
Posted by: | CommentsThanks to John Franco… “With the 72nd pick the New York Mets select LHP Steven Matz Ward Melville HS, NY”
The consensus top prep pitching prospect in the Northeast, Matz offers plenty of projection as well as good present stuff. For most of the spring, he sat in the 89-91 mph range, but he routinely ran his fastball up to 93-94, and the pitch has some glove-side life. Scouts particularly like the way he attacks hitters inside with his heater. He also shows a solid-average changeup with good deception that sometimes rates as plus. He began throwing a slider midway through the season, but most scouts prefer his 73-75 mph three-quarters curveball, which flashes average to plus but more often rates as a below-average offering at this stage. Matz has a big, projectable frame at 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, but there are some questions about his durability because he had trouble staying healthy for a full season until this year. He also needs to work on his delivery, as he tends to cut himself off and has a head jerk. There is some risk with Matz, but he has enough upside that some team is likely to take him in the top three rounds and buy him out of a commitment to Coastal Carolina.
…Thats from BA^^. Good pick, tall projectible lefty. I like the size and delivery, hometown connections. Seems like a real good first pick with not having a pick all the way until number 72. He has a pretty effortless delivery which could lead to a little more life on his fastball if he adds on some muscle moving him from average to above average velocity as a lefty…
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