Archive for Robert Carson

A few days ago fellow Mets prospect Collin McHugh posted this picture of Robert Carson:

We all have our guilty pleasures. I will admit to sporting some Miley Cyrus and Beyonce on my Ipod, but Rob c’mon son that doesn’t mean I am going to go out sporting a Party in the USA t-shirt.

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All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels


31
WILFREDO TOVAR
• Highest Level: HiA
• Team: St. Lucie Mets
• B: R | HT: 5-10 | WT: 160
POS AGE AVG HR RBI
SS 19 .266 0 29

Tovar’s best tool can not be seen or measured by these numbers as his defense is off the charts.  He has received rave reviews from everyone that has seen him play the field making circus plays look routine. He has gold glove potential defense, but his biggest question marks will always be his size (5’10 160 is a generous listing) and bat.


32
ROBERT CARSON
• Highest Level: AA
• Team: Binghamton Mets
• B: L | HT: 6-3 | WT: 220
POS AGE W-L ERA SO
LHP 22 8-11 5.67 99

This is a situation where if the prospect fails I am putting it on the Mets’ shoulders. Carson was doing okay, but not dominating in St. Lucie so they move him up to AA where he gets bombed. Carson still has the stuff to succeed, but did terrible in the “AA test” so a move to the pen might be in store.


33
JAVIER RODRIGUEZ
• Highest Level: Rk
• Team: Kingsport Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 165
POS AGE AVG HR RBI
OF 21 .319 4 24

While Rodriguez is a little old for Kingsport he finally began to put his tools together last year. I am always a little weary of the power numbers prospects put up in Kingsport, but I am trying to stay positive of the former second round pick. Next year will decide if he is a real prospect or not.


34
KYLE ALLEN
• Highest Level: HiA
• Team: St. Lucie Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-3 | WT: 195
POS AGE W-L ERA SO
RHP 21 .6-8 5.24 53

I was high on Allen entering 2010, but he was just awful for St. Lucie. He walked more (54) than he struckout (53) and did not get nearly as many groundballs as he had in the past. He gets the benefit of the doubt because he was pitching with a back injury, but I am not too excited about his potential anymore.


35
KAI GRONAUER
• Highest Level: HiA
• Team: St. Lucie Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-1 | WT: 215
POS AGE AVG HR RBI
C 24 .291 4 43

The older German product started coming around with the bat in 2010. He is already an average to above average defensive catcher and if he can sustain the new offensive production he could develop into a major league back up catcher.


36
ERIC CAMPBELL
• Highest Level: AA
• Team: Binghamton Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-3 | WT: 220
POS AGE AVG HR RBI
3B 24 .306 10 51

Campbell has very quietly turned into a nice bat for the organization. He plays adequate defense at third and has a good approach at the plate that held up in the jump to AA.


37
DOMINGO TAPIA
• Highest Level: Rk
• Team: GCL Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-4 | WT: 186
POS AGE W-L ERA SO
RHP 19 4-4 3.38 34

The results were okay on the surface, but not spectacular. He is going to need to up the strikeouts and the stuff suggests he will do it in the future with already a low 90′s fastball and flashes of plus change-up. The projection is there for him to become a legitimate prospect only time will tell.


38
ZACH DOTSON
• Highest Level: Rk
• Team: GCL Mets
• B: L | HT: 6-1 | WT: 180
POS AGE W-L ERA SO
LHP 20 0-1 3.31 18

One of the few Mets overslots in recent years actually pitched well during his brief time flashing good K rates and keeping the balls on the ground, but was suspended for PED’s. Will need to move quickly when he returns.


39
ELVIS SANCHEZ
• Highest Level: –
• Team: –
• B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 195
POS AGE AVG HR RBI
3B 16

One of the big international free agents in 2010 for the Mets. Sanchez is a big third baseman with plus to plus-plus raw power, but hwo might need to move to first base. He was the 15th best Latin American prospect.


40
VICENTE LUPO
• Highest Level: –
• Team: –
• B: R | HT: 5-11 | WT: 180
POS AGE AVG HR RBI
OF 16

The other main attraction from the IFA class. Lupo was the 25th best ranked prospect form Latin America and is also considered to have plus to plus-plus raw power.

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page.  I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.


11. Jeurys Familia | SP | LoA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)

Good pitchers build standing 6’3 185 lbs with room to add some more muscle.  He throws a fastball at 90-93 mph touching 94 with good movement.  He uses a slurve type breaking ball at 78-80 mph that he needs to tighten up if he wants it to be a true out pitch in the bigs.  His worst pitch by far is his  81-83 mph change up with little movement.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats10-62.6924/23134.01094653%3.45
TOTAL10-62.6924/23134.01094653%3.45


12. Steven Matz | SP | HS | Age – 18 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2009 (C+)

The Mets top pick from the 2009 draft has some serious upside.  The big 6’2 lefty is a New York native who probably would have went higher in the draft had he lived in California or Florida. He has three pitch arsenal that features a 88-90 mph fastball that has topped out at 93.  Also throws a change up, curveball, and newly added slider.

Perfect World Projection – #2 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

NO STATS


13. Ruben Tejada | SS | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 2006 IFA (C+)

Young, udnersized slick fielding shortstop from Panama only a generous 5’11 165 lbs.  He swings for contact, but isn’t quiet the slap hitter of Luis Castilllo, but knows what to do with the glove.  Could move to 2nd, but will have competition no matter where he goes with Jose Reyes in NY and Reese Havens in the minors.

Perfect World Projection – Average shortstop with the bat, but has great defense

More Likely Outcome – Great defensive shortstop with no bat

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Binghamton Mets4885924546.289.343.381.321.092
TOTAL4885924546.289.343.381.321.092


14. Juan Urbina | SP | HS | Age – 16 | Drafted – IFA 2009 (C+)

The son of former major league pitcher Ugeth Urbina.  Hopefully one day he will get the same nickname as his father “Butcher”, but for cutting up Philly hitters not actual people(or at least chasing them with knives).  I always like a young pitcher whose best pitch is a change up and is able to pump out a fastball at 90 mph already.

Perfect World Projection – #2 starter (?)

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

NO STATS


15. Cesar Puello | OF | Rk | Age – 18 | Drafted – 2007 IFA (C+)

Big, strong kid who signed along with Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte with the Mets in 2007.  He is the only one still in rookie ball, but this is mostly do to the injury bug.  Has above average speed to go along with an above average arm he does everything pretty well.  Major sleeper in 2010 could break out big if he can stay healthy.

Perfect World Projection – All-Star caliber outfielder

More Likely Outcome – Everyday MLB outfielder

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Binghamton Mets198246117.298.372.429.380.131
TOTAL198246117.298.372.429.38.131


16. Eric Niesen | SP | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2007 (C+)

Smaller lefty with a filthy fastball.  It has good velocity coming in in the low 90′s and touching the mid 90′s, but it is so effective due to its late life and movement.  Has ridiculous late tailing actual that breaks in on the hands of lefties.  His slider also has potential of being a plus pitch with with good, tight downward tilt.

Perfect World Projection – #4 starter

More Likely Outcome – LOOGY

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets3-43.2811/1157.2491646%3.53
Binghamton Mets4-74.6616/1683.0854139%3.64
TOTAL7-114.1127/27140.21345742%3.58


17. Jefry Marte | 3B | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)

This ranking might be a bit harsh, but so was Marte’s 2009.  He hit an abysmal .233 and his BABIP wasn’t even that low at .291, he simply just did not hit.  Right now this is playing out as one of the cases the Mets rush a prospect to the point of failure.  Still has age and upside, but he is going to have to show some more offense in 2010 to make up for his terrible defense.

Perfect World Projection – Slugging 3rd baseman

More Likely Outcome – Everyday 3rd baseman

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Savannah Sand Gnats4855821641.233.278.338.396.105
TOTAL4855821641.233.278.338.396.105


18. Eric Beaulac | SP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 9th Round 2008 (C)

My personal favorite and an extremely underrated prospect.  New York native and Mets fan doesn’t have the most or more consistent stuff, but gets the job done.  His fastball as been clocked as low as 86 mph and as high as 94 mph, but mostly stays in the 88-90 mph range.  His best pitch is a slider which has a good downward bite at 81 mph and is a true strikeout pitch.  The lack of a change up lead most to believe he is best suited for a bullpen role as does Beaulac himself.

Best Case Outcome – #4 starter

More Likely Outcome – Relief pitcher

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats7-72.9526/19116.01334148%3.45
TOTAL7-72.9526/19116.01334148%3.13


19. Robert Carson | SP | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – 14th Round 2007 (C)

I actually think I might be ranking him a bit low here at 19.  Sure has the stuff and stats to be up there Allen and Familia, but just isn’t quiet as polished.  Fastball sits 88-90 touching 92 and hitters can’t seem to square it up.  Also uses a 84-86 mph slider and 78-80 mph change up.  Even if he has pubicly stated he doesn’t look for the strikeout he needs to strikeout more batters.  Love the ground balls.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4/5 starter

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats8-103.2125/25131.2904557%3.65
TOTAL8-103.2125/25131.2904557%3.65


20. Scott Moviel | SP | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2007 (C)

Looks like a tree trunk on the mound being listed anywhere from 6’9 to 6’11 and 245 lbs.  Actually had a pretty solid year considering he was trying to recover from knee surgery.  Needs to work on his mechanics and command as the stuff is already there.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Liketly Outcome – #5 starter/Set up Man

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets4-53.9213/1364.1462447%3.81
TOTAL4-53.9213/1364.1462447%3.81

Raul Reyes has a nice swing, but must work on his pitch selection.
Ross Seaton is a pretty damn good pitcher. Good 2-seam fastball.
I am loving the cheerleaders in between innings.
Robert Carson complete domination of the Lexington lineup as he throws 2nd 9-inning complete game shutout in the SAL league.

Robert Carson’s pitchcount: 22 Balls – 70 strikes = 92 total pitches.
Carson threw mostly fastballs that he located with perfection that the Legends just simply could not hit. The fastball was mostly 88-90 and he did hit 92 once. He could throw the fastball up, down, in, out no matter what the pitch was just unhittable. He threw some sliders that went as high as 86 mph. He did a good job keeping it down getting grounders with it when he threw it. I saw only a handful of change ups that he didn’t really need to use, but threw a few and located them well. Nothing bad from Carson on the night.

1st inning:

  • Jefry Marte jumped on a first pitch fastball that was high to clobber it into deep left field for a homerun.
  • Robert Carson – GB to 2nd (2 pitches), BB (6 pitches), GB  to 2nd (3 pitches), GB to 2nd (3 pitches) 5 balls – 9 strikes. Touched 90 mph.
  • Poor turn of attempted double play by Imbewer Alvarez.
  • Pelligrini looks like a house!

2nd inning:

  • Eric Campbell worked the count nice for a leadoff walk.
  • Leblanc had a nice inside-out swing of a ball to right field.
  • Robert Carson – K via fastball (3 pitches), GB  to SS (1 pitch), GB to 2nd (1 pitch) 0 balls – 5 strikes (all fastballs)

3rd inning:

  • Marte attempted to bunt for a hit, but was barely thrown out.
  • Sean Ratliff struck out looking on a nasty two-seam fastball
  • K via fastball (4 pitches), GB 3rd base (1 pitch), K looking via fastball (5 pitches),  3 balls-7 strikes. Slider came in at 86 mph.

4th inning:

  • Again Campbell showing great plate discipline
  • Robert Carson – single into right field (2 pitches), GB to SS (2 pitches), K via changeup (5 pitches) 2 balls-7 strikes
  • After 4 pickoff attempts Carson finally picked off his man.
  • Great pick at first base by Campbell.

5th inning:

  • Evan LeBlanc another nice job taking it the opposite field this time high off the wall for a double.
  • Robert Carson – GB to SS error (3 pitches), FO to center (4 pitches), GB to 2nd (4 pitches), pickoff (1 pitch) 2balls -10 strikes
  • Pickoff was all the batters fault he simply took off to early.

6h inning:

  • Gnats get lucky run on a batched ground ball by the Legend’s shortstop.  Very routine play he messed up.
  • Not showing from Leblanc time pulling a fastball into left field for an RBI.
  • Leblanc showing nice speed scoring all the way from first.
  • Robert Carson – FO to left field (1 pitch,  infield hit to SS (2 pitches), FO to center field (8 pitches), GB to 3rd base (2 pitches) 2 balls-11 strikes

7th inning:

  • Marte had an 0-2 count and battled back to get a walk.
  • Ratliff just missed a homerun hitting one HIGH off the wall in right field for a single.
  • Josh Satin thrown out at home on a ball hit relatively shallow in right field.
  • Robert Carson – GB to 3rd base (4 pitches), K looking via slider (7 pitches), FO to left field (3 pitches) 7 balls- 7 strikes

8th inning:

  • Marte put a great swing on a ball off the wall into left for an RBI single.
  • Robert Carson – K swinging via fastball (3 pitches), FO to left field (1 pitch), single on line drive to left field (1 pitch), K swinging via fastball (4 pitches) 1 ball-7 strikes

9th inning:

  • Robert Carson – GB to 2nd (4 pitches), K swinging via fastball (3 pitches), linedrive out to 2nd(4 pitches) 4 balls – 7 strikes
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TRS86 of The Real Dirty Mets Blog says that the Mets should go ALL in for Roy Halladay because no matter what happens the Mets are going to come out as winners.  His argument says that if the Mets get him they add another ace to their rotation and become a force to be reckon with and if they do not get him then at least they raise the price for a team like say the Phillies.

Now that it seems the Phillies have signed Pedro Martinez (sad sad day as Pedro is my favorite pitcher to take to a major league game) would they still pursue Halladay? My gut tells me no as the Phillies are generally a cheap team and would not want to take Halladay’s 10 million and or take Vernon Wells/Alex Rios‘s contract when they have a complete outfield already.  Plus they would have to risk the future trading some crop including Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, or Antonio Bastardo.

Now if the Phillies wanted to they could easily put together a much better package for Halladay then the Mets, but would it be a win for the Mets if they did?  The answer is yes it would.  As a stated earlier the Phillies are rather cheap and will likely have to let Doc walk after 2010 and enter free agency leaving their farm system weaker for a season and a half of Doc so that they can retain Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Cole Hamels.  It woulf suck for the Mets to have to face Doc over that time, but they won’t have to face Drabek, Brown, and Taylor for many more than just a season and a half.

And if they get Doc well than that puts them into the favorite for the NL East as I don’t feel the Phillies gain as much from getting him as their ballpark is built that they have to put together an amazing offensive team with their pitching not as important as it will be to the Mets who have a weak offense and with their canyon of a ballpark would benefit from adding another pitcher who can keep their offense in the game and give them a chance to win.  The Mets prospects are also not as good as the Phillies or they are father away and far more risky.  With the Mets financial ability of definitely being able to take on say Alex Rios and $60 mill if they can obtain the combo of the two for a package in the area of Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese/Brad Holt, Reese Havens,  and Robert Carson (or any lower level player you choose or 2 depending on who they are) it is a package that I would pull the trigger on and get the Ace and young outfielder.  So I tend to agree with the Real Dirty Mets Blog that we should go all in and that either way it is a pretty much win-win.  I am a prospect lover and still agree getting rid of some of our best talent for him would be the smartest move, or at least attempting to get rid of our best talent for him would be a smart move.

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