Archive for Josh Thole

The majority of my memories of the Mets time under Omar Minaya are positive ones. It was the first time since I began to follow baseball with a burning passion that the Mets were a truly competitive team and it was a time that saw my favorite player of all-time, Pedro Martinez, don my  favorite team’s jersey. A lot of positive memories.

With the state of the Mets today, however, I decided I wanted to take a detailed look into Omar’s tenure with the Mets and see how much credit/blame he deserves. Granted there are many, many other people that are involved in the decision making process, but at the end of the day decisions need the general manager’s stamp of approval. I have always viewed Omar as someone from the “Isiah Thomas School of Managing”—terrific at evaluating talent, but poor at putting together a collective team so it is time to put my perception to the test.

What better way to start of this series than with his first draft as the GM of the team.

*For these graphs I only counted players who signed with the team they were drafted with in 2005. So with the Mets for example, Pedro Beato was not counted and the same with Vance Worley and the Phillies.*

Our first graph shows how many players each team has had reach the big leagues through 2011.

The Mets five players to reach the majors is slightly above the league average and tied for 10th best in the league, putting them in the top third. The players who made it are Mike Pelfrey (1.9), Drew Butera (5.149), Jon Niese (7.209), Bobby Parnell (9.269), and Josh Thole (13.389). Luis Martinez (11.329) and Pedro Beato (17.509) both also have time on major league rosters, but chose not to sign with the Mets in 2005.

Five out of 48 players, or 10.4 percent, sounds like it wasn’t a very successful year but those numbers are actually very good when put into perspective. In 2004 the Mets had 50 picks and only three have made it to the majors, four of the 50 picks in 2003 have made it, two of 48 from 2002, five of 52 picks from 2001 have major league service time and the Mets were working with four picks in the top 76, and four of 51 from 2001 draft made it even though the Mets had four picks in the top 100.

Going solely by the number of contributing draft picks, Omar’s first draft was a big improvement from the previous ones run by Steve Phillips and Jim Duquette.

Our second graphs shows the total WAR accumulated by the players through the 2011 season.

The Mets ranked 17th putting them just in the lower half of the league which isn’t great, but  it is respectable. As the next graph will show the stats really weren’t skewed that much by one great players, with the Rockies (Troy Tulowitzki), Royals (Alex Gordon), and Blue Jays (Ricky Romero) as the only teams with a total higher WAR than the Mets and have two players or less make it to the majors.

Graph three is simply taking the average WAR each player who made the big leagues as contributed.

 Here is where the numbers are thrown off because of those three teams mentioned above. With those three teams included the average WAR per player in 2.97 (pictured above), without them the average WAR per player drops considerably to 1.85. At 1.26 the Mets average WAR per player is just shy of the average when the Rockies, Royals, and Blue Jays are not included and ranks 16th overall.

Again on the surface these aren’t outstanding results, but when putting things in perspective it is quiet amazing the Mets rank this high in both categories.

With the blockbuster signings of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran (a topic for another series) the Mets forfeited their second and third round picks, with their first round pick being protected, and made their second pick at 119th overall. That is a lot of top talent going off the board in between picks. An argument can be made this actually worked in the Mets favor. One could say it allowed the Mets to draft Mike Pelfrey, who slipped because of his demands,  since they were able to put a large chunk of their budget into signing him knowing they didn’t have to pay other high round guys. And while that is a fair argument to make I can’t buy into it as being beneficial knowing with the amount of uncertainty in the MLB draft the more chances you have to strike lightning the better.

This final graph is a very basic one that shows where the true value of the Mets draft lies.

The graph simply shows the amount of players that contributed last year only on the team that drafted them. Now I used the term “contribution” loosely because my criteria was they had to suit up for at least one game. The Mets finished tied for second and all four players were key to the team in 2011, not just roster fillers. Niese and Pelfrey made up 40 percent of the rotation, Thole was the starting catcher, and Parnell made some important contributions out of the bullpen. This is considerably better than Twins who also had four player, but that consisted of a reliever with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter who was only able to pitch in 12 games with an ERA in the 6′s, and a bench player who batted just .203 over 60 games.

This final fact about their draft really puts things over the top for Omar. In 2010 when Jonathan Mayo did a 2005 re-draft, he put Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese in the first round. Now I do not know how every player not included on this list has progressed since Mayo put it out, but if the list was done today I would definitely take Josh Thole over Will Venable, who was awarded the last spot in the first round.

To sum things up and put a letter grade on the 2005 draft, I think Omar deserves an A-. The draft didn’t produce any real stars for the Mets, but Pelfrey was a successful first round pick even if he frustrates fans and Niese is still improving and could turn out to be the Mets best pick of the draft. Getting Parnell was a terrific scouting job for Omar and co. to see the potential in his arm despite being a shortstop for most of his career and developing him accordingly. Easily one of the Mets best drafts in recent history. Score this one a win for Omar.

*Stats from Baseball-Reference*

Josh Thole | Catcher

Season Predictions
AVG%: .295
OBP%: .369
SLG%: .393
HR: 4
RBI: 50
SB: 2

2010 Numbers: .286 | .357 | .366 | 3 HR | 17 RBI | 1 SB (73 G)

162 Game Averages: .286 | .357 | .373 | 5 HR | 47 RBI | 4 SB

Josh Thole is currently on on a tear in spring training and showing much improved power numbers.  Thole began to show added power at the end of last year clobbering 3 during his limited time in the bigs, which is actually a lot for him, and now has 3 in 17 games this spring.  Right now it is hard for me to believe Thole will sustain this streak based off his previous track record, but power is the last tool to come.  Any power he brings this year will be a plus because his on-base skills and average should be enough to make him valuable enough as a catcher.

I’ll be filling in my own answers to some questions fans asked Adam Rubin over at a Sports Nation chat.

Tommy Crimmins (Conneticut)

Adam do you think the Mets should use Josh Thole at the 2 spot in the order because of his great contact or the 6 or 7 because he will drive in more runs

I would have Josh Thole batting 7th/8th for the fact that I want Brad Emaus, who I believe will win the second base job, to hit second because of his ability to take a walk and his strike-zone discipline.  Both players would fit perfectly into the 2 slot with no problem I just feel Emaus has the better all around skill set to take that spot.

Danny (Brooklyn)

Hey Adam,During your last chat, you mentioned that you were uncertain if Ike Davis would reach 20 homers this year. Considering the fact that he hit 19 homers as a rookie, that he’ll likely have a better lineup around him, and that most of his homers aren’t wallscrapers, what makes you doubt his power potential?

Unlike Adam Rubin I have no questions about Ike Davis‘s power.  I have him slotted to hit about 25 home runs in this season and build off his very solid rookie season.  I think an improved season from him and a bounce back from Jason Bay could do a lot for both of their power numbers.  Outside of the great defense I don’t get the John Olerud comparisons.

Luke (Brooklyn)

Who would you put money on to be the Mets starting second baseman coming out of spring training and why?

I’ve already mentioned this above that I think it will be Emaus.  He is the perfect Sandy Alderson player and if he has any say in it this will be the 2011 New York Mets starting second baseman.

Craig Lerner (New York)

Hi Adam, do you envision Willie Harris actually making the team? Does this mean Lucas Duda is out? How do you view Duda as a prospect?

Lucas Duda and Willie Harris serve to different roles on a team so I don’t see how one affects the other players spot.  Duda probably is not going to make the team anyway and he shouldn’t because he isn’t going to be playing every game and Harris could play an Endy Chavez type role as the perfect 4th outfielder on the team.

Williw (Lincoln, NE)

How had is the Mets farm system and what will it take to build it up?

The Mets system is not terrible, but not top notch as it should be with their resources.  They have a lot of decent prospects, but lack the star power.  A couple of breakout performances this year could change that all around.  If Sandy Alderson is able to go overslot in the draft that would be the big jump the Mets need to get their farm system into the upper echelon of systems.

To read Adam Rubin’s answer and see more questions go here.

With all the Cliff Lee rumors swirling around all the baseball “experts” make it sound like the Twins can just have Lee if they wanted by offering a package centered around catching prospect Wilson Ramos.  Yet for the Mets they HAVE to include Jenrry Mejia because Fernando Martinez is not a strong enough centerpiece for a deal.  Now I fully understand why everyone would want Mejia to be the centerpiece of the deal, but I can not fathom why it is people feel Ramos is strong enough to be the main piece and Martinez is not.

I think if you just take a look at their stats it is pretty obvious that not only is Martinez worthy of being the main part of a deal like Ramos he is also a better prospect than Ramos.

So despite playing at a higher level and putting up stats that are equal or if not better than Ramos at a younger age has some how turned Martinez into a worse prospect than Ramos.  Not only that, but one of the biggest knocks on Martinez is that he has spent so much time in the minor leagues without being able to crack into the majors, but Ramos has been down on the farm even longer.It is also not like Ramos has been injury free throughout his minor league career spending time on the DL in 2008 and 2009.

Take a look at prospect guru John Sickels’ rankings of the two prospects over the last couple of years.

2010 – 4) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Power and defense are positives, main question is weak walk rate.
2009 – 3) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B: Good glove, strong bat.
2008 – Not ranked

2010 – 3) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: People are now too negative on him. The guy was the equivalent of a college sophomore last year. If a college sophomore got drafted and hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, people would be drooling over him. He’s made significant progress refining his tools. My main concern now is health and durability, which keeps him from ranking higher.
20092) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with Flores if you prefer the guy closer to the majors.
2008 - 1) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+:.292/.332/.420 for Double-A Binghamton. Production improving, plate discipline still an issue, still very young.

It is also important to keep in mind that Sickels is a Twins fan so there is reason to believe he is sometimes a bit biased towards their prospects, as he should be, and yet Martinez has always been ranked higher and going into the year he actually agreed with me that F-Mart is taking unnecessary criticism.

Wilson Ramos was impressive during his brief stint in the majors early this year and he play a plus defense, but ever since going down to the minors he has been awful.  I think Ramos is a great prospect and worthy of being included in a deal for Lee, but so should the “Teenage Hitting Machine”.  Not to mention if the Mariners really want a closer Josh Thole is a pretty decent player who while he may not have the power or defense of Ramos hits for a higher average and has way better plate discipline.  A deal of Fernando Martinez/Josh Thole/2 more prospects probably Kyle Allen and someone or F-Mart/Reese Havens/and a pitching prospect should be enough to get a deal done for lee.  Any more than that and I would be a little upset with what the Mets traded.

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page.  I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.


1. Fernando Martinez | CF | AA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2005 (B+)

Still the Mets number 1 for me. He is just 21 and put up a great line of .290/.337/.540 in AAA before being called up. If a college draft pick went to AAA and put up that line he would probably be a top 10 prospect and Martinez gets over looked.  He was rushed to the bigs, but watch for him in 2010 if he can have a healthy season.

Best Case Outcome – Middle of the order bat with good defense

More Likely Outcome – Solid everyday player with 1-2 all-star appearances

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
Buffalo Bisons1762416828.290.337.540.319.250
New York Mets9111618.176.242.275.197.099
TOTAL2673522936.251.304.449.274.199

2. Jenrry Mejia | SP | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (B+)

The prize arm in the Mets system Mejia has a great fastball to go along with an average an average change-up and developing curve.  Nice all around numbers on the season.

Best Case Outcome – Ace starter/All-Star Closer

More Likely Outcome – Good #3/Set-up man

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets4-11.979/950.1441668%2.52
Binghamton Mets0-54.4710/1044.1482359%3.49
TOTAL4-63.1419/1994.2913964%2.95

3. Ike Davis | 1B | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B+)

Ike has all the physical tools and showed them off in 2009 with a .298 average and 20 home runs in A+ and AA.  The best part of his season was that he didn’t slow down after the promotion he improved. An aggressive ranking, but I believe in his bat.

Best Case Outcome – Slugging first baseman with great defense

More Likely Outcome – League Average first baseman with great defense.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
St. Lucie Mets2222817728.288.376.486.348.198
Binghamton Mets20730141343.309.386.565.381.256
TOTAL42958312071.298.381.524.365.226

4. Jon Niese | SP | MLB | Age – 23 | Drafted – 7th Round 2005 (B)

Gets over looked a lot because of lack of elite velocity (89.4 avg velo), but his outstanding curve and cutter that is already becoming a plus pitch will set him up for great success.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter in the mold of Andy Pettitte.

More Likely Outcome – Good #4 starter.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
St. Lucie Mets2222817728.288.376.486.348.198
Binghamton Mets20730141343.309.386.565.381.256
TOTAL42958312071.298.381.524.365.226

5. Wilmer Flores | SS | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (B)

This season was a little bit of a disappointment from Flores, especially in the power department, but being such a young age in LoA he gets some slack.

Best Case Outcome – Top-3 offensive left fielder

More Likely Outcome – Top-15 offensive left fielder

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Buffalo Bisons5-63.8216/1694.1822656%3.38
New York Mets1-14.215/525.218946%3.21
TOTAL6-73.9021/21120.01003551%3.28

6. Brad Holt | SP | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B-)

Most people are worried about the showing Holt put up in AA. He was dealing with some injuries, dominated A+, and his K rate was still pretty solid, but it was his control that hurt him.  The control would also correlate with him being injured.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter/set-up man

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets4-13.129/943.1541337%3.15
Binghamton Mets3-66.2111/1158.0452337%4.96
TOTAL7-74.9019/19101.1993937%4.20

7. Reese Havens | 2B | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B-)

He was pretty unlucky last year with a .272 BABIP I fully expect his average to go up.  Doesn’t strike out too much, gets a good amount of walks, has enough speed to up the steals, and provides good power.  He also provides those intangibles you look for in all good ballplayers.  Will be interesting to see how he adjusts to 2nd base.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average second baseman who gets 1 or 2 all-star appearances on career years.

More Likely Outcome – Solid MLB starter.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLGBABIPISO
St. Lucie Mets36053191452.247.361.422.272.175
TOTAL36053191452.247.361.422.272.175

8. Kyle Allen | SP | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 24th Round 2008 (B-)

After a great rookie performance I had him pegged as a personal favorite/sleeper and boy he didn’t disappoint.  He has a great Fastball/Change-up combination and if he can develop a 3rd plus pitch he can become great.

Best Case Outcome – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats9-63.4525/19125.11115159%3.74
TOTAL9-63.4525/19125.11115159%3.74

9. Josh Thole | C | MLB | Age – 23 | Drafted – 13th Round 2005 (C+)

He has to be cut some slack for his defense.  He has turned into a decent fielder for the amount of time he has been behind the plate and seems to make improvements each year. He will never hit for power, but as a catcher with his average and walks he should be fine.

Best Case Outcome – slight above-average MLB catcher

More Likely Outcome – average MLB catcher

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
Binghamton Mets3844829146.328.395.422.349.094
New York Mets532209.321.356.396.340.075
TOTAL4375031155.327.394.419.348.092

10. Kirk Nieuwenhuis | CF | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2008 (C+)

Simply had a great 2009.  He is a big kid and the power he has been showing is for real. Has enough speed to stick at center, but his arm is a little weak and that is the only thing I could see moving him to a corner spot.  So far the jump to AA went amazing and it will be nice to see if he can continue it.  Needs to cut down on K’s.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average center fielder in the mold of Aaron Rowand.

More Likely Outcome – Solid MLB center fielder.

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
St. Lucie Mets48291351671.276.358.469.336.193
Binghamton Mets328312.406.472.656.545.250
TOTAL5149938173.284.366.481.348.196

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