Archive for Josh Stinson

All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels


41
JOSH STINSON
• Highest Level: AAA
• Team: Buffalo Bisons
• B: R | HT: 6-4 | WT: 210
POS AGE W-L ERA K:BB
SP 23 11-5 3.90 89:58

Am I a little low on Stinson in these rankings? Maybe. It is only because I am not that confident in his ability to remain in the rotation. While his ERA and K numbers look much better in AAA than in AA his FIP actually increased in Buffalo (4.94) compared to Binghamton (4.49). If he makes it as a starter he is a number five at best, which is not bad, still he could be a very good reliever.


42
FRANCISCO PENA
• Highest Level: HiA
• Team: St. Lucie Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 230
POS AGE .AVG HR RBI
C 21 .290 0 9

I’m still not a huge fan of Pena’s, but he is still young and has potential so he gets a mulligan and remains in the top 50 prospects. Missed almost all of 2010 because of injuries. He spent a lot of time in extended spring training and did perform fairly well during the limited action he did see. If he doesn’t show significant progress this year I’ll have no problem leaving him off the list.



43
MANNY ALVAREZ
• Highest Level: AAA
• Team: Buffalo Bisons
• B: R | HT: 5-11 | WT: 215
POS AGE SV ERA K:BB
RP 25 17 2.17 12:84

Alvarez is a terrific reliever who should be ready to contribute as soon as this year. Really showed no holes in his game and pitched well at every level now it just remains to be seen if he can duplicate his success.



44
GREG PEAVEY
• Highest Level: –
• Team: –
• B: R | HT: 6-1 | WT: 200
POS AGE W-L ERA K:BB
SP 22

SLEEPER ALERT. Peavey is the complete package as a pitcher. He is not an overpowering player with filthy stuff, but he is able to use his 90-93 mph fastball effectively and mix in a slider, change-up, and curve ball. His excellent mechanics and maturity as a pitcher and person give me bright hopes for him. Could make big moves in 2011.


45
JAMES FULLER
• Highest Level: HiA
• Team: St. Lucie Mets
• B: L | HT: 5-10 | WT: 180
POS AGE W-L ERA K:BB
SP 23 11-5 2.19 38:124

A stat geeks favorite and a scout’s worst nightmare. Fuller has decent stuff, but his less than ideal pitcher’s build and no plus pitches make scouts wonder if he will ever be able to live at the higher levels and be able to withstand the rigors of a full season. Should make a good future LOOGY.


46
BLAKE FORSYTHE
• Highest Level: SSA
• Team: Brooklyn Cyclones
• B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 220
POS AGE AVG HR RBI
C 21 .234 3 8

Highly regarded before the 2010 season until scouts found major holes in his swing. The Mets took him in the 3rd round based off great numbers during his sophomore season where he was very close to Yasmani Grandal for being the best catcher in the class. Early numbers show the holes may be too big to overcome, but the potential of being a power hitting catcher is still there.


47
SCOTT MOVIEL
• Highest Level: HiA
• Team: St. Lucie Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-11 | WT: 235
POS AGE W-L ERA K:BB
SP 22 3-7 5.56 55:90

Only because of his injury issues and being a ridiculously tall pitcher do I cut him some slack as taller pitches tend to take longer to develop because of the inconsistent mechanics. Another one who needs to take a big leap this year or will find himself on the outside looking in.


48
NICK CARR
• Highest Level: HiA
• Team: St. Lucie Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-1 | WT: 195
POS AGE W-L ERA K:BB
RP 24 2-2 4.70 23:36

The command issues are a shame because he is such a great arm. It seems like he has been around forever despite the fact he is still 24-years-old, but at this stage in his development I am beginning to wonder if he will ever iron out the control issues.


49
BRETT MITCHELL
• Highest Level: Rk
• Team: Kingsport Mets
• B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 190
POS AGE W-L ERA K:BB
SP 22 2-2 5.94 13:42

A personal favorite from the 2010 draft. I think he is much better than the results show as the numbers are a bit skewed by a rought two start streak. Has good enough stuff to make a little bit of noise. You just never know with the small school pitchers and this one sticks out to me.


50
YANCARLOS JAVIER
• Highest Level: Rk
• Team: DSL Mets2
• B: R | HT: 6-3 | WT: 170
POS AGE W-L ERA K:BB
SP 20 1-1 2.05 15:28

Going completely off the board for Mr. Irrelevant. I would almost never rank a DSL guy, but Javier has a great combination of strikeouts, ground balls, and perfectibility. He could amount to nothing, but something tells me I needed to get his name out there.


For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page. I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.


41. Armando Rodriguez | SP | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007

This is a severe injustice ranking Rodriguez so low. He is probably going to sky rocket up the list this year working his way into possibly the teens.

Perfect World Projection – MLB Starter

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Kingsport Mets3-13.089/945.2362040%2.96
Savannah Sand Gnats2-12.163/316.224929%1.94
TOTAL5-22.7512/1262.1702937%2.77

42. Alonzo Harris | 2B | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 39th Round 2007 (C-)

We already knew he had above average speed, but last year he showed a lot more pop then expected.  His game is very raw, but he has loads of potential.

Perfect World Projection – Good offensive MLB 2nd baseman

More Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Kingsport Mets2534941039.273.321.477.317.174
Savannah Sand Gnats253003.200.259.200.294.000
TOTAL2785241042.266.316.424.310.158

43. Chase Greene | CF | GCL | Age – 20 | Drafted – 16th Round 2009 (C-)

Great athlete who was bought out of a college commitment.  Reminds me a bit of Red Sox’s prospect Ryan Kalish.  Hopefully he can have a similar development.

Perfect World Projection – Average MLB center fielder

More Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
GCL Mets638705.286.361.397.333.111
TOTAL638705.286.361.397.333.111

44. Lucas Duda | 1B | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 7th Round 2007 (C-)

Has a line drive swing that has enabled him to maintain a high BABIP for his career and knows how to draw a walk, but hasn’t shown enough power to be a first baseman despite great size.

Perfect World Projection – MLB 1st baseman (Sean Casey type)

More Likely Outcome – Bench player

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Binghamton Mets3954929953.281.380.428.340.147
TOTAL3954929953.281.380.428.340.147

45. Yohan Almonte | SP | Rk | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C-)

Another young armed probably ranked a tad too low with great sleeper potential.  His peripherals were great last year and was even a bit unlucky with a high BABIP and low FIP compared to his ERA.  I will be interested to see where he goes in 2010.

Perfect World Projection – MLB starter

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
GCL Mets1-01.375/519.220256%1.47
Kingsport Mets3-14.408/84337866%3.08
TOTAL4-13.4713/1362.2571061%2.48

46. Julio Concepcion | OF | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C-)

Big toolsy outfield with a lot of speed and developing power.  If he can add muscle onto his lanky frame he can develop into a legitimate prospect.

Perfect World Projection – MLB outfielder

More Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
GCL Mets160214012.306.354.356.377.050
TOTAL160214012.306.354.356.377.050

47. Josh Stinson | RP | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 37th Round 2007 (C-)

Stinson was lights out as a reliever last your, but I’m just not into ranking someone who will max out as a reliever too high.

Perfect World Projection – Set up man

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats2-23.6125/142.1491046%2.18
St. Lucie Mets3-11.9825/036.1351962%2.84
TOTAL5-32.8850/178.2842956%2.33

48. Roy Merritt | RP | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 29th Round 2007 (C-)

I liked Merritt when I watched him, but his average at best fastball leaves a lot to be desired.

Perfect World Projection – LOOGY

More Likely Outcome – LOOGY

TEAMW-L-SVERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Binghamton Mets4-5-143.4556/062.2562544%4.41
TOTAL4-5-143.4556/062.2562544%4.41

49. Stefan Welch | 3B | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C-)

I have a special spot for the lanky Aussie.  Is decent at everything, but hasn’t really shown any plus tools as of yet.

Perfect World Projection – Bench player

More Likely Outcome – AAAA Player

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Savannah Sand Gnats9273210.239.271.359.282.120
St. Lucie Mets2163810537.278.350.412.313.134
TOTAL3084512747.266.329.396.304.130

50. Chris Schwinden | SP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 22nd Round 2008 (C-)

Another personal favorite I saved for the last spot.  Fringe fastball, but decent off speed offerings and good command have gotten him by so far.  I don’t see him facing any problems in St. Lucie, but Binghamton will be the real challenge.

Perfect World Projection – Innings eater

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats9-63.2821/17115.1881545%2.87
St. Lucie Mets1-03.972/211.14335%3.82
TOTAL10-63.3523/19126.2921843%2.93

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