Archive for Fernando Martinez

Baseball America put up a midseason report listing the 10 youngest players in each league. At 22 years and 7 months, Fernando Martinez came in as the 10th youngest player in the International League (Triple-A). He is a few weeks younger than Gary Brown, who has made himself into a top prospect by tearing up the California League (High-A).

…It is hard to still have faith in Fernando, but when things are put into perspective just how young he is you have to have a little more patience with him. His body might not be as young as the mind, but when you focus solely on his on the field body of work it has not been all that been considering his age. Not many players have spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues at 22 and it was not that long ago he was being called “the teenage hitting machine”.

I was never as high on Martinez as placed like Baseball America or people like John Sickels, but he has talent and is starting to get underrated and overlooked by Mets fans. His season hasn’t really been all that bad this year and he has played in a combined 56 games, which is probably a record for him at this point in the season. It is possible he could outgrow the injury bug (minus the arthritis) with age and actually play 100 games in a season.

I am sure he will have a Major League career in some aspect, it is just a matter of how big a role he will play and it is way too early to discount him as a possible starter. He deserves a shot until he reaches the ripe old age of 25…

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No. 10 JEURYS FAMILIA, RHP METS
Team: high Class A St. Lucie (Florida State)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 SO
The Scoop: Familia continued his stellar start to 2011 with seven shutout innings Saturday against Jupiter. He has allowed just two runs and nine hits in 25 2/3 innings this season, a stark contrast to his season last year at St. Lucie when he went 6-9, 5.58. Familia is a large part of the reason St. Lucie is playing so well this year and has a Florida State League-leading 2.84 ERA. Like the rest of the top prospects on that team, Familia probably won’t spend too much longer in St. Lucie. He appears to be in line for a promotion to Double-A Binghamton once the weather warms up in New York state.
2011 Stats

J.J. Copper went on to take a lot of questions about the Mets in the Hot Sheet chat. You can read these questions after the jump.

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All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels


1. Jenrry Mejia | SP | AAA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (B+)

Mejia’s potential was obvious with his numbers in the minors as he was absolutely dominant in his 7 starts.  This was just another case where Omar and Jerry screwed up by rushing a player to quick to the majors.  Flashes of his plus stuff could be seen out of the bullpen, but he was extremely inconsistent which is expected from a player so young.  He will benefit greatly from more time in the minors as Terry Collins has suggested he will get.

Best Case Outcome – Top of the rotation starter
More Likely Outcome – Good #3/Closer


2. Wilmer Flores | SS | HiA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (B+)

Flores has been nothing but spectacular since joining the Mets system.  He has hit at every level the Mets have placed him at and done so with great plate discipline for a young player.  About the only thing you could complain about at this point is his defense.  His power seems to be developing as expected, but I would like to see some more homers this year.

Best Case Outcome – Run producing cleanup hitter
More Likely Outcome – Above average #5/6 hitter

3. Matt Harvey | SP | College | Age – 21 | Drafted – 1st Round 2010 (B)

Harvey has some big time power stuff on the mound with the workhouse body to boot.  If his command can hold up he has the potential to be a big impact starter on the mound.  That is a big “if”.  His power sinker in Citi Field could be a great combination.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter
Most Likely Outcome – Innings eating #3/4 starter

*No stats*

4. Aderlin Rodriguez | 3B | LoA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (B)

Rodriguez slugged his way all the way up this list in 2010. He made the Appy League pitching look silly hitting 13 home runs and 22 doubles for a .556 SLG%. It appears like the slow approach the Mets have decided to take with Rodriguez is paying off. About time they learned their lesson.

Best Case Outcome – All-Star slugging 3rd baseman
Most Likely Outcome – Above average power hitting 3rd baseman

5. Reese Havens | 2B | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B)

This is a bit of an aggressive ranking for Havens, but I have no doubt in my mind had it not been for the injuries he would be ranked at the top of this list.  During his time on the field his stats are just insane.  Those numbers from a 2nd baseman are hard to come by.

Best Case Outcome – All-Star second baseman
Most Likely Outcome – League average second baseman

6. Fernando Martinez | OF | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – IFA 2005 (B-)

I am still a fan of Martinez although the continuing injuries and arthritis in his knee is a bit worrisome.  He still has some potential, but in my opinion is never going to live up to the “Teenage Hitting Machine” nickname.  If there was ever a time for him to have a big season it is now with Carlos Beltran’s contract ending this season and a spot opening up in the outfield.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average outfielder
Most Likely Outcome – League average outfielder

7. Cory Vaughn | OF | SSA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2010 (B-)

Although he slowed down as the season went on Vaughn had a huge debut for the Cyclones. He displayed better plate discipline than reported before the draft. His splits are pretty stark, but he isn’t awful against right hand pitching so I am not too worried about that yet.

Best Case Outcome – Very good all-around outfielder
Most Likely Outcome – Average outfielder with good defense

8. Cesar Puello | OF | SSA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (B-)

The young Puello began to put together his tremendous tools last season in Savannah.  Given free reign on the base paths Puello showed his exceptional speed swiping 45 bags.  The power was down from last year, but the improved discipline and speed made up for it.  Still has a lot of room to breakout this year.

Best Case Outcome – Run creating speedster with great defense
Most Likely Outcome - Below average hitter with great defensive value

9. Jeurys Familia | SP | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)

I am overlooking his ERA somewhat because although it was ugly he had a much better FIP (3.89) and had great strikeout and ground ball numbers. Familia’s key to success will be controlling his 100 mph heat because walks were his killer all season. An inflated BABIP and questionably low LOB% keep me optimistic about his future.

Best Case Outcome – #2/3 starter/closer
Most Likely Outcome - #4/5 starter or middle reliever

10. Kirk Nieuwenhuis | OF | AAA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2008 (C+)

I was not a big fan when I first saw him, but Nieuwenhuis has slowly turned me into a believer. He has solid speed and power, but no outstanding tools. His defense is average and his key will always be if he can begin to handle the high and inside fastball.

Best Case Outcome – Average outfielder with some real good seasons (Aaron Rowand)
Most Likely Outcome - Bench or platoon outfielder

With all the Cliff Lee rumors swirling around all the baseball “experts” make it sound like the Twins can just have Lee if they wanted by offering a package centered around catching prospect Wilson Ramos.  Yet for the Mets they HAVE to include Jenrry Mejia because Fernando Martinez is not a strong enough centerpiece for a deal.  Now I fully understand why everyone would want Mejia to be the centerpiece of the deal, but I can not fathom why it is people feel Ramos is strong enough to be the main piece and Martinez is not.

I think if you just take a look at their stats it is pretty obvious that not only is Martinez worthy of being the main part of a deal like Ramos he is also a better prospect than Ramos.

So despite playing at a higher level and putting up stats that are equal or if not better than Ramos at a younger age has some how turned Martinez into a worse prospect than Ramos.  Not only that, but one of the biggest knocks on Martinez is that he has spent so much time in the minor leagues without being able to crack into the majors, but Ramos has been down on the farm even longer.It is also not like Ramos has been injury free throughout his minor league career spending time on the DL in 2008 and 2009.

Take a look at prospect guru John Sickels’ rankings of the two prospects over the last couple of years.

2010 – 4) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Power and defense are positives, main question is weak walk rate.
2009 – 3) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B: Good glove, strong bat.
2008 – Not ranked

2010 – 3) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: People are now too negative on him. The guy was the equivalent of a college sophomore last year. If a college sophomore got drafted and hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, people would be drooling over him. He’s made significant progress refining his tools. My main concern now is health and durability, which keeps him from ranking higher.
20092) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with Flores if you prefer the guy closer to the majors.
2008 - 1) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+:.292/.332/.420 for Double-A Binghamton. Production improving, plate discipline still an issue, still very young.

It is also important to keep in mind that Sickels is a Twins fan so there is reason to believe he is sometimes a bit biased towards their prospects, as he should be, and yet Martinez has always been ranked higher and going into the year he actually agreed with me that F-Mart is taking unnecessary criticism.

Wilson Ramos was impressive during his brief stint in the majors early this year and he play a plus defense, but ever since going down to the minors he has been awful.  I think Ramos is a great prospect and worthy of being included in a deal for Lee, but so should the “Teenage Hitting Machine”.  Not to mention if the Mariners really want a closer Josh Thole is a pretty decent player who while he may not have the power or defense of Ramos hits for a higher average and has way better plate discipline.  A deal of Fernando Martinez/Josh Thole/2 more prospects probably Kyle Allen and someone or F-Mart/Reese Havens/and a pitching prospect should be enough to get a deal done for lee.  Any more than that and I would be a little upset with what the Mets traded.

1. Cliff Lee – Lee is by far the best pitcher in the group and having a fantastic season.  He had a late start to his season because of an injury, but he is already 5-3 on a really bad team with a 2.55 ERA.  The most staggering thing about Lee’s season so far is his K/BB statistic.  Right now it sits 16.75.  The next person on the list is Roy Halladay with a 6.13.  Lee is on base to shatter the MLB record because frankly he just isn’t walking anyone.  He has walked just 4 batters all season, which is good for a .46 BB/9.  Lee is just doing everything you can ask of an ace pitcher.  Winning games, giving up no runs, no hits, walking no one, striking guys out, and pitching deep into games.  Right now he is averaging nearly 8 innings per start and already has 3 complete games in 10 starts.

The problem with Lee pitching so well is that it is going to cost a lot to get him.  The Mariners don’t have to Lee because they will get 2 draft picks when he leaves via free agency.  The one thing going for the Mets is that the Mariners were asking for bats in return so the Mets can still keep Jenrry Mejia.  With Fernando Martinez just coming back from his injury two weeks ago it was perfect timing for the M’s to get a good look at him.  The other main prospect being thrown around in talks is Wilson Ramos of the Twins.  The Mariners are in need of a catcher, but F-Mart is certain;y the better prospect and the Mariners outfield isn’t too great either so he could surely help them up.

I understand the Mets have been reluctant to trade F-Mart in the past, but if there was ever the perfect opportunity to trade him this would be it.  Martinez is highly unlikely to match Lee’s success in the majors and Lee is going to put the Mets over the top.  Going into a playoff race with a rotation of Cliff Lee-Mike Pelfrey-Johan Santana is just devastating and will dramatically increase the Mets’s chances of getting to the ship.

2. Fausto Carmona – I really like Carmona and actually traded for him last season in my dynasty league (I am the Mets in the league).  He reminds me a lot of Big Pelf.  Both of them rely heavily on their sinkers that have similar velocity and get similar horizontal and vertical movement, each of them complements their fastball with a nice slider, and change up.  The only difference is Pelf’s change up is now a split-fingered fastball while Carmona uses a more traditional change.  It is interesting to note when Carmona had his best season in 2007 was the last time he threw a splitter regularly so it would be interesting if the Mets acquire him if they have him go back to throwing the split.

The problem with Carmona is that he is signed cheaply for a couple years so he is going to cost a pretty penny.  I am not sure what the Indians would be looking for in return, but if it Jenrry Mejia I would balk at their asking price.  This is a case where I would consider trading Fernando Martinez, but I would never be able to sell myself 100% on the idea.

3. Jeremy Guthrie - Guthrie is a very sticky situation.  He is a solid middle rotation who will be under control until 2012, but the O’s are going to be looking for a return on a #2 type of pitcher.  I like Guthrie and like Carmona traded for him in my dynasty league.  His stuff is likely to play better in the National League and Citi Field where his fly balls aren’t going to carry out as much as they do at Camden.  If he can be had for a reasonable price without having to give up any top notch prospects I am all for, but something tells me the O’s are going to want someone like Wilmer Flores for him and I just don’t think it would be smart for the Mets to do something like that.

4. Ben Sheets – I have always been a huge Ben Sheets fan and when the A’s signed him in the off season you know the only thing Billy Beane had in mind was to have Sheets show he was healthy so he could trade him for a couple of prospects.  Sheets is having an okay season.  He is 2-7 with a 4.95 ERA, but almost all his other numbers are on par with his career numbers.  He is actually getting more ground balls than usual, the problem has been his control.  He is walking way more batters than usual all the way up to a 3.81 BB/9 compared to his career average of 2.08.  Part of the reason for the high ERA is the amount of home runs he has given up.  His HR/FB percentage is all the way up to 12% since moving to the AL in Oakland compared to 7.7% over his last 3 years.  I think a moved back to the NL could certainly help his numbers and like with Guthrie playing in Citi Field would definitely help his home run rate.  I would really like if the Mets got Sheets because when he is on he is one of the best pitchers in the game and would certainly cost less than someone like Lee.

Some of the moves the Mets in recent history have made have been just flat out confusing (who signs a 32-year-old 2nd baseman, whose been on the decline, with TERRIBLE knees to a 4 year deal?)  But that is not even what I am talking about.  Their treatment of young players is just horrendous.  Just look at the Health Bell situation.  Couldn’t make up their mind on what to do with a young kid with talent which caused his results to suffer.  He finally gets a STEADY role with the Padres and becomes and All-Star closer.

In present times they are just making themselves look silly.  Just about a week ago we got the humorous story about how great New York Mets’ front office communication is.  This story just hit home for me.  As a Met fan I try to stay positive, support the team, and ignore the public perception of them but they make it near impossible.  How can a GM and manager be so far apart on the outlook of the team and make comments like this just hours apart?  It really makes you question if anybody knows what they are doing.

The main issue that is pissing me off somewhat goes along with that story.  The why they are treating fellow top prospect, Jenrry Mejia, is just atrocious.  There really is no nicer way to put it.  I understand what Jerry Manuel is doing he, but it is just wrong.  He is aware just as everybody else that his job is on the line and he wants the best talent on the roster to help him keep his position.  Sometimes though you can’t be so selfish and look at the players needs above yours.  You can not wage the bright looking career of a young player on whether or not you get to keep your job.

Just two seasons ago Mejia was busy carving up pitchers in the GCL, which is pretty much equivalent to an ultra competitive high school league.  Now the Mets want a kid who is not legally old enough to drink in this country to make a jump to the big leagues?  This isn’t just a normal jump it is one the requires him to switch positions while doing so.  Even if it may not seem like it there is a big difference between starting and relieving there is a huge difference both mentally and physically.  Sure it was nice to see him pitch successfully on back to back days early in spring training, but how do you think someone who has appeared in 33 games in his career, all starts, would handle that in the dog days of September.  I would feel pretty confident in saying his arm wouldn’t have the same “magic” to it after being used early and often in the season similar to Bobby Parnell last year.

Am I also the only one who looks at the bullpen as a last resort for pitchers.  If you have a guy with plus stuff you try him in the rotation and if that doesn’t work you let him dominate out of the pen with his fastball and whatever else he has just like the Yankees did with Mariano Rivera.  I have a bad feeling that converting him to the pen so early in his career is going to have lasting repercussions no one wants to see.

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page.  I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.


1. Fernando Martinez | CF | AA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2005 (B+)

Still the Mets number 1 for me. He is just 21 and put up a great line of .290/.337/.540 in AAA before being called up. If a college draft pick went to AAA and put up that line he would probably be a top 10 prospect and Martinez gets over looked.  He was rushed to the bigs, but watch for him in 2010 if he can have a healthy season.

Best Case Outcome – Middle of the order bat with good defense

More Likely Outcome – Solid everyday player with 1-2 all-star appearances

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
Buffalo Bisons1762416828.290.337.540.319.250
New York Mets9111618.176.242.275.197.099
TOTAL2673522936.251.304.449.274.199

2. Jenrry Mejia | SP | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (B+)

The prize arm in the Mets system Mejia has a great fastball to go along with an average an average change-up and developing curve.  Nice all around numbers on the season.

Best Case Outcome – Ace starter/All-Star Closer

More Likely Outcome – Good #3/Set-up man

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets4-11.979/950.1441668%2.52
Binghamton Mets0-54.4710/1044.1482359%3.49
TOTAL4-63.1419/1994.2913964%2.95

3. Ike Davis | 1B | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B+)

Ike has all the physical tools and showed them off in 2009 with a .298 average and 20 home runs in A+ and AA.  The best part of his season was that he didn’t slow down after the promotion he improved. An aggressive ranking, but I believe in his bat.

Best Case Outcome – Slugging first baseman with great defense

More Likely Outcome – League Average first baseman with great defense.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
St. Lucie Mets2222817728.288.376.486.348.198
Binghamton Mets20730141343.309.386.565.381.256
TOTAL42958312071.298.381.524.365.226

4. Jon Niese | SP | MLB | Age – 23 | Drafted – 7th Round 2005 (B)

Gets over looked a lot because of lack of elite velocity (89.4 avg velo), but his outstanding curve and cutter that is already becoming a plus pitch will set him up for great success.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter in the mold of Andy Pettitte.

More Likely Outcome – Good #4 starter.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
St. Lucie Mets2222817728.288.376.486.348.198
Binghamton Mets20730141343.309.386.565.381.256
TOTAL42958312071.298.381.524.365.226

5. Wilmer Flores | SS | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (B)

This season was a little bit of a disappointment from Flores, especially in the power department, but being such a young age in LoA he gets some slack.

Best Case Outcome – Top-3 offensive left fielder

More Likely Outcome – Top-15 offensive left fielder

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Buffalo Bisons5-63.8216/1694.1822656%3.38
New York Mets1-14.215/525.218946%3.21
TOTAL6-73.9021/21120.01003551%3.28

6. Brad Holt | SP | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B-)

Most people are worried about the showing Holt put up in AA. He was dealing with some injuries, dominated A+, and his K rate was still pretty solid, but it was his control that hurt him.  The control would also correlate with him being injured.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter/set-up man

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets4-13.129/943.1541337%3.15
Binghamton Mets3-66.2111/1158.0452337%4.96
TOTAL7-74.9019/19101.1993937%4.20

7. Reese Havens | 2B | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B-)

He was pretty unlucky last year with a .272 BABIP I fully expect his average to go up.  Doesn’t strike out too much, gets a good amount of walks, has enough speed to up the steals, and provides good power.  He also provides those intangibles you look for in all good ballplayers.  Will be interesting to see how he adjusts to 2nd base.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average second baseman who gets 1 or 2 all-star appearances on career years.

More Likely Outcome – Solid MLB starter.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLGBABIPISO
St. Lucie Mets36053191452.247.361.422.272.175
TOTAL36053191452.247.361.422.272.175

8. Kyle Allen | SP | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 24th Round 2008 (B-)

After a great rookie performance I had him pegged as a personal favorite/sleeper and boy he didn’t disappoint.  He has a great Fastball/Change-up combination and if he can develop a 3rd plus pitch he can become great.

Best Case Outcome – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats9-63.4525/19125.11115159%3.74
TOTAL9-63.4525/19125.11115159%3.74

9. Josh Thole | C | MLB | Age – 23 | Drafted – 13th Round 2005 (C+)

He has to be cut some slack for his defense.  He has turned into a decent fielder for the amount of time he has been behind the plate and seems to make improvements each year. He will never hit for power, but as a catcher with his average and walks he should be fine.

Best Case Outcome – slight above-average MLB catcher

More Likely Outcome – average MLB catcher

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
Binghamton Mets3844829146.328.395.422.349.094
New York Mets532209.321.356.396.340.075
TOTAL4375031155.327.394.419.348.092

10. Kirk Nieuwenhuis | CF | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2008 (C+)

Simply had a great 2009.  He is a big kid and the power he has been showing is for real. Has enough speed to stick at center, but his arm is a little weak and that is the only thing I could see moving him to a corner spot.  So far the jump to AA went amazing and it will be nice to see if he can continue it.  Needs to cut down on K’s.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average center fielder in the mold of Aaron Rowand.

More Likely Outcome – Solid MLB center fielder.

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
St. Lucie Mets48291351671.276.358.469.336.193
Binghamton Mets328312.406.472.656.545.250
TOTAL5149938173.284.366.481.348.196

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