Archive for Chris Schwinden


Chris Schwinden was drafted first by the Detroit Tigers in 2004 out of high school in the 43th round. He was a draft and follow for the Tigers as he went on to the College of the Sequoias. Schwinden went 5-4 with 1.78 ERA (32 runs/19 earned runs) in 14 appearances (13 starts) with the Sequoias during his freshman season and posted a 15:75 BB:K ratio in 96 innings with 79 hits allowed, but wound up not signing with the Tigers and continued his college career. For his senior season Schwinden transferred the Fresno Pacific University and excelled.

In his only season at Fresno Pacific Schwinden performed like the team’s ace and went 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA (28 runs/25 earned runs) in 13 starts. He threw three complete games and had a total of 90.2 innings in which he allowed just 63 hits and 22 walks, while setting a school record at the time with 96 strikeouts. The Mets took notice and he was drafted for a second time of his career in 2008 when he went in the 22nd round. Being a small school senior sign, he got an extremely small bonus that was barely enough to cover the cost of a wedding ring.

Schwinden was sent to Short-Season A Brooklyn Cyclones for the remainder of the 2008 season and started in the pen, but pitched his way into the rotation and wound up becoming one of the best pitchers on the staff. Among starters his 2.01 ERA was the second lowest just below Brad Holt and his 10.9 K/9 was again second best just behind Holt. He displayed outstanding command and led the team with a 1.7 BB/9 and a 5.83 K/BB.

He opened 2009 in Savannah and was in and out of the rotation until June when he earned a full-time role as a starter. He had a pretty solid season in the Sally, displaying outstanding command once again, but he did not wow anybody. He made 17 starts and posted a 3.28 ERA over 115.1 innings, although he got hit pretty hard. Batters posted a .297 batting average off him with 126 hits and his 88 strikeouts were very mediocre. He got a cup of coffee in St. Lucie at the end of the season and had one good start and one bad start.

Schwinden remained in St. Lucie briefly to open up 2010 before being promoted to Binghamton. While five of his seven appearances in St. Lucie were out of the bullpen he was pitching three to five innings  in relief and wound up going 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA. His time in Binghamton was not as pleasant to him. Over 17 appearances (14 starts) he got hit harder than ever before to the tune of a 4-7 record with a 5.56 ERA. His control held up and his K/9 even increased, but he averaged under five innings per start and hitters were even better against him with a .306 batting average against. His BABIP was extremely high at .365 and his FIP was much lower than his ERA at 3.64, yet he remained nothing more than an organizational filler.

He was set to repeat Binghamton in 2011 and made two appearances out of the bullpen, but when Dillon Gee was promoted to fill in for Chris Young Schwinden got a chance to make a spot start for Buffalo. Schwinden was magnificent in that game and struckout nine in five innings, while allowing just a run. Ever since then Schwinden stayed up in Buffalo, remained in the rotation, and has thrived.  In late May Schwinden had a 10-day layoff in between starts because the Mets needed him as insurance for R.A. Dickey, and the layoff appeared to affect him for a few starts, but he now looks to be back in form. He is having one of his best seasons at the moment with a 2.87 ERA in 15 starts spanning 87.2 innings and has pretty nice peripherals with a 30:75 BB:K. The walks are up and his BABIP is much lower than his career average, but his FIP is a solid 3.54.

There is every chance that this season is an apparition and his numbers will regress when his stats balance out, but I am not so sure that some of this success isn’t for real. Schwinden has been pitching away from contact more this year than I remember from his days in Buffalo and while his walk rates are up he is still commanding his pitches well.

He works mainly off a 88-91 mph fastball, topping out at 93 mph, that he is able to paint almost always on the black on either side of the plate. The fastball is a little straight for my liking, although he does get some nice arm side run when he elevates it in the zone to get some swings and misses. I have read a bunch of reports that state his changeup is his best secondary offering, but in my opinion the hammer curve is that pitch and his favorite to throw. It comes in mid-to-high 70′s and while at times the pitch can get a bit loopy when he leaves it high in the zone, when it is at its best he keeps it down in the zone and gets a late, hard 12-6 break. His changeup doesn’t get enough separation from his fastball and he leaves it up in the zone far too much to be a plus pitch, but it is still a serviceable third offering. While his slider doesn’t have a lot of break, it has tight movement at 85-87 mph and at times almost functions as a cutter. Although he doesn’t throw the pitch very often, he usually commands it well and keeps it down in the zone. He likes to throw it mostly to the left side of the plate and could benefit from starting it at right-handed hitter’s knees or trying to backdoor lefties.

While Schwinden isn’t the most overpowering pitcher on the planet, I do not like when people refer to him as not having enough “stuff” to get Major League hitters out. He is much like Gee, in that the overall command of his fastball and good off-speed pitch should be enough to keep hitters honest at the next level. In Gee’s case the pitch is a changeup, but for Schwinden it will be good old Uncle Charlie and being a guy who gets a lot of flyballs he could benefit greatly from pitching in Citi Field. He is still just a C prospect, but I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to have a Gee type of impact at some point this season or next.

Jun
02

MMP Awards for May

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MLB

Hitter of the Month: Jose Reyes

.364/.421/.555 | 9 2B | 6 3B | 18 R | 10 RBI | 11/13 SB | 11:8  BB:K

One of two things is sure with how well Reyes is playing right now. (1) The Mets are going to get a very good package of prospects for him, or at least one much better than the Homer Bailey/Zack Cozart package Buster Olney felt they would get before the seasons, or (2) The amount of money the Mets will have to give Jose is going through the roof. Hopefully it is the later of the two.

Pitcher of the Month: Dillon Gee

3-0 | 3.48 ERA | 33.2 IP | 25  H | 13 R | 13 ER | 13 bb | 27 so

Gee has been a Godsend for this Mets team much like R.A. Dickey was last year. His performances were just terrific this month. He showed he has what it takes to be a major league pitcher in the game against the Cubs when he got rocked early on, but made the necessary adjustments and settled everything down to pick up the seven inning “complete game” victory.

Triple-A

Hitter of the Month: Kirk Nieuwenhuis

.302/.394/.488 | 6 2B | 2 3B | 2 HR | 14 R | 8 RBI | 3/4 SB | 13:29 BB:K

Captain Kirk missed the last week of the month after making one of the best catches you’ll see in the minors this year and was still was by far the best hitter on the Bisons. He could actually have some competition for the month of June with Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez.

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Four members of the Mets minor league system have been chosen to participate in the 2010 Florida State League All-Star Game.  Outfielder Sean Ratliff, 2nd baseman Josh Satin, closer Manny Alvarez, and starting pitcher Chris Schwinden were all chosen to be members of the team.  Alvarez and Schwinden, however, were recently pormoted to Double-A Binghamotn and will not be able to participate in the even.

Ratliff, 23, will be playing on his 2nd All-Star team in as many years after making the SAL All-Star team as a member of the Sand Gnats last year.  So far this season Ratliff is hitting .280 with 20 extra base hits (5 homers, 3 triples, 12 doubles), stolen 8 bases, and drove 25 runs.  Through 49 games Satin, 25, is hitting .322 with 5 home runs and 29 RBI’s.  He has also already struck out 46 times.

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page. I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.


41. Armando Rodriguez | SP | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007

This is a severe injustice ranking Rodriguez so low. He is probably going to sky rocket up the list this year working his way into possibly the teens.

Perfect World Projection – MLB Starter

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Kingsport Mets3-13.089/945.2362040%2.96
Savannah Sand Gnats2-12.163/316.224929%1.94
TOTAL5-22.7512/1262.1702937%2.77

42. Alonzo Harris | 2B | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 39th Round 2007 (C-)

We already knew he had above average speed, but last year he showed a lot more pop then expected.  His game is very raw, but he has loads of potential.

Perfect World Projection – Good offensive MLB 2nd baseman

More Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Kingsport Mets2534941039.273.321.477.317.174
Savannah Sand Gnats253003.200.259.200.294.000
TOTAL2785241042.266.316.424.310.158

43. Chase Greene | CF | GCL | Age – 20 | Drafted – 16th Round 2009 (C-)

Great athlete who was bought out of a college commitment.  Reminds me a bit of Red Sox’s prospect Ryan Kalish.  Hopefully he can have a similar development.

Perfect World Projection – Average MLB center fielder

More Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
GCL Mets638705.286.361.397.333.111
TOTAL638705.286.361.397.333.111

44. Lucas Duda | 1B | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 7th Round 2007 (C-)

Has a line drive swing that has enabled him to maintain a high BABIP for his career and knows how to draw a walk, but hasn’t shown enough power to be a first baseman despite great size.

Perfect World Projection – MLB 1st baseman (Sean Casey type)

More Likely Outcome – Bench player

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Binghamton Mets3954929953.281.380.428.340.147
TOTAL3954929953.281.380.428.340.147

45. Yohan Almonte | SP | Rk | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C-)

Another young armed probably ranked a tad too low with great sleeper potential.  His peripherals were great last year and was even a bit unlucky with a high BABIP and low FIP compared to his ERA.  I will be interested to see where he goes in 2010.

Perfect World Projection – MLB starter

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
GCL Mets1-01.375/519.220256%1.47
Kingsport Mets3-14.408/84337866%3.08
TOTAL4-13.4713/1362.2571061%2.48

46. Julio Concepcion | OF | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C-)

Big toolsy outfield with a lot of speed and developing power.  If he can add muscle onto his lanky frame he can develop into a legitimate prospect.

Perfect World Projection – MLB outfielder

More Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
GCL Mets160214012.306.354.356.377.050
TOTAL160214012.306.354.356.377.050

47. Josh Stinson | RP | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 37th Round 2007 (C-)

Stinson was lights out as a reliever last your, but I’m just not into ranking someone who will max out as a reliever too high.

Perfect World Projection – Set up man

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats2-23.6125/142.1491046%2.18
St. Lucie Mets3-11.9825/036.1351962%2.84
TOTAL5-32.8850/178.2842956%2.33

48. Roy Merritt | RP | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 29th Round 2007 (C-)

I liked Merritt when I watched him, but his average at best fastball leaves a lot to be desired.

Perfect World Projection – LOOGY

More Likely Outcome – LOOGY

TEAMW-L-SVERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Binghamton Mets4-5-143.4556/062.2562544%4.41
TOTAL4-5-143.4556/062.2562544%4.41

49. Stefan Welch | 3B | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C-)

I have a special spot for the lanky Aussie.  Is decent at everything, but hasn’t really shown any plus tools as of yet.

Perfect World Projection – Bench player

More Likely Outcome – AAAA Player

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Savannah Sand Gnats9273210.239.271.359.282.120
St. Lucie Mets2163810537.278.350.412.313.134
TOTAL3084512747.266.329.396.304.130

50. Chris Schwinden | SP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 22nd Round 2008 (C-)

Another personal favorite I saved for the last spot.  Fringe fastball, but decent off speed offerings and good command have gotten him by so far.  I don’t see him facing any problems in St. Lucie, but Binghamton will be the real challenge.

Perfect World Projection – Innings eater

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats9-63.2821/17115.1881545%2.87
St. Lucie Mets1-03.972/211.14335%3.82
TOTAL10-63.3523/19126.2921843%2.93

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