Archive for Mike Pelfrey
Grading the Omar Regime: The 2005 Draft
Posted by: | CommentsThe majority of my memories of the Mets time under Omar Minaya are positive ones. It was the first time since I began to follow baseball with a burning passion that the Mets were a truly competitive team and it was a time that saw my favorite player of all-time, Pedro Martinez, don my favorite team’s jersey. A lot of positive memories.
With the state of the Mets today, however, I decided I wanted to take a detailed look into Omar’s tenure with the Mets and see how much credit/blame he deserves. Granted there are many, many other people that are involved in the decision making process, but at the end of the day decisions need the general manager’s stamp of approval. I have always viewed Omar as someone from the “Isiah Thomas School of Managing”—terrific at evaluating talent, but poor at putting together a collective team so it is time to put my perception to the test.
What better way to start of this series than with his first draft as the GM of the team.
*For these graphs I only counted players who signed with the team they were drafted with in 2005. So with the Mets for example, Pedro Beato was not counted and the same with Vance Worley and the Phillies.*
Our first graph shows how many players each team has had reach the big leagues through 2011.
The Mets five players to reach the majors is slightly above the league average and tied for 10th best in the league, putting them in the top third. The players who made it are Mike Pelfrey (1.9), Drew Butera (5.149), Jon Niese (7.209), Bobby Parnell (9.269), and Josh Thole (13.389). Luis Martinez (11.329) and Pedro Beato (17.509) both also have time on major league rosters, but chose not to sign with the Mets in 2005.
Five out of 48 players, or 10.4 percent, sounds like it wasn’t a very successful year but those numbers are actually very good when put into perspective. In 2004 the Mets had 50 picks and only three have made it to the majors, four of the 50 picks in 2003 have made it, two of 48 from 2002, five of 52 picks from 2001 have major league service time and the Mets were working with four picks in the top 76, and four of 51 from 2001 draft made it even though the Mets had four picks in the top 100.
Going solely by the number of contributing draft picks, Omar’s first draft was a big improvement from the previous ones run by Steve Phillips and Jim Duquette.
Our second graphs shows the total WAR accumulated by the players through the 2011 season.
The Mets ranked 17th putting them just in the lower half of the league which isn’t great, but it is respectable. As the next graph will show the stats really weren’t skewed that much by one great players, with the Rockies (Troy Tulowitzki), Royals (Alex Gordon), and Blue Jays (Ricky Romero) as the only teams with a total higher WAR than the Mets and have two players or less make it to the majors.
Graph three is simply taking the average WAR each player who made the big leagues as contributed.
Here is where the numbers are thrown off because of those three teams mentioned above. With those three teams included the average WAR per player in 2.97 (pictured above), without them the average WAR per player drops considerably to 1.85. At 1.26 the Mets average WAR per player is just shy of the average when the Rockies, Royals, and Blue Jays are not included and ranks 16th overall.
Again on the surface these aren’t outstanding results, but when putting things in perspective it is quiet amazing the Mets rank this high in both categories.
With the blockbuster signings of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran (a topic for another series) the Mets forfeited their second and third round picks, with their first round pick being protected, and made their second pick at 119th overall. That is a lot of top talent going off the board in between picks. An argument can be made this actually worked in the Mets favor. One could say it allowed the Mets to draft Mike Pelfrey, who slipped because of his demands, since they were able to put a large chunk of their budget into signing him knowing they didn’t have to pay other high round guys. And while that is a fair argument to make I can’t buy into it as being beneficial knowing with the amount of uncertainty in the MLB draft the more chances you have to strike lightning the better.
This final graph is a very basic one that shows where the true value of the Mets draft lies.
The graph simply shows the amount of players that contributed last year only on the team that drafted them. Now I used the term “contribution” loosely because my criteria was they had to suit up for at least one game. The Mets finished tied for second and all four players were key to the team in 2011, not just roster fillers. Niese and Pelfrey made up 40 percent of the rotation, Thole was the starting catcher, and Parnell made some important contributions out of the bullpen. This is considerably better than Twins who also had four player, but that consisted of a reliever with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter who was only able to pitch in 12 games with an ERA in the 6′s, and a bench player who batted just .203 over 60 games.
This final fact about their draft really puts things over the top for Omar. In 2010 when Jonathan Mayo did a 2005 re-draft, he put Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese in the first round. Now I do not know how every player not included on this list has progressed since Mayo put it out, but if the list was done today I would definitely take Josh Thole over Will Venable, who was awarded the last spot in the first round.
To sum things up and put a letter grade on the 2005 draft, I think Omar deserves an A-. The draft didn’t produce any real stars for the Mets, but Pelfrey was a successful first round pick even if he frustrates fans and Niese is still improving and could turn out to be the Mets best pick of the draft. Getting Parnell was a terrific scouting job for Omar and co. to see the potential in his arm despite being a shortstop for most of his career and developing him accordingly. Easily one of the Mets best drafts in recent history. Score this one a win for Omar.
*Stats from Baseball-Reference*
Link Dump: February 23rd, 2010
Posted by: | CommentsMinor League Ball – Career Profile: Mike Pelfrey
Mike Pelfrey has been something of a disappointment to a lot of Mets fans, not developing into the Number One starter of their dreams. He’s a good pitcher though, and is an interesting case study for prospect analysis. Mike Pelfrey was an extremely successful starting pitcher at Wichita State for three years. A local kid from Wichita, he had a great freshman year in 2003 (10-2, 2.49, 98/15 K/BB in 105 innings), then followed that up with even better sophomore (11-2, 2.19, 125/24 K/BB) and junior (12-3, 1.93, 143/30 K/BB in 140 innings) seasons, establishing himself as one of the premier talents in the 2005 draft class.
MLB.com – German Catching Prospect Kai Gronauer is Finding His Way With the Mets
The Solingen Alligators play their home games on a modest diamond in western Germany, soccer country, directly adjacent to — of course — a soccer field. Most of Kai Gronauer’s childhood friends preferred that sport; Gronauer himself limited his athletic pursuits to soccer and tennis until the age of 10. But one friend in particular suggested he try baseball, and the young man took to it.
Metsblog – I Don’t Know What to Make of Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Kirk Nieuwenhuis is a big kid. There is no getting around it.
Frankly, he looks like an actor playing baseball.
In talking to people around the team, I can’t get a read on how they view him. There are people who like his potential, others who are not quite sure yet.
Baseball America – Top 100 Prospects for 2011
44. Jenrry Mejia, rhp, Mets
59. Wilmer Flores, ss, Mets
77. Cesar Puello, of, Mets
They REALLY love Cesar Puello.
ESPN NY – A History of Mets and Rule 5 Draft
With Brad Emaus perhaps the frontrunner to emerge as second baseman, and with Terry Collins speaking positively about fellow Rule 5 pick Pedro Beato as a candidate for the bullpen, Major League Baseball provided ESPNNewYork.com with a list of the Mets’ Rule 5 picks in the major league phase over the last two decades, as well as their fates.
2011 Season Predictions: Mike Pelfrey, SP
Posted by: | Comments
Mike Pelfrey | Starting Pitcher
Season Predictions
W-L: 15-7
ERA: 3.41
GS: 33
IP: 224
SO: 137
BB: 71
2010 Numbers: 15-9 | 3.66 ERA | 33 GS | 204 IP | 113 SO | 68 BB
162 Game Averages: 13-2 | 4.31 ERA | 34 GS | 203 IP | 115 SO | 74 BB
I see Mike Pelfrey taking a minor step forward in 2011 as more responsibility is going to be placed on him starting the season off as the Mets’ “Ace”. While Mike may not ever turn out to be the true ace the Mets thought they were drafting back in 2005 he has slowly transformed into a very serviceable pitcher making strides towards becoming a strong #2 starter last year. With a full year under his belt now throwing the splitter Big Pelf should have learned how best to use his splitter. At times last year he got to splitter happy and it cost him with walks and runs. As a more matured pitcher if he can locate that pitch better and use it at the appropriate times he will get an increased strikeout rate, lower walk rate, and help keep the runs off the board. The wins I have staying the same mainly because I don’t feel the offense will do enough to give him more wins even with a slightly better performance.
What Has Been the Reason for Mike Pelfrey’s Turn Around?
Posted by: | CommentsMike Pelfrey is off to a blazing start to the 2010 Major League Baseball season. He is 3-0 with a save and a 0.86 ERA in 4 games (3 starts) so far and has yet to give up a home run. Every game Pelfrey has pitched in this season the Mets have earned a victory. This is pretty shocking since Pelfrey is coming off a year in 2009 where he was 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA. So what has been the cause for the sudden success for the big guy you may ask yourself.
Pelfrey was a good candidate to bounce back for a couple of reasons. He was one of the most unlucky pitchers in 2009 with a 0.64 difference between his ERA and FIP. More specifically he was the 5th unluckiest pitcher in the MLB. He was also victimized by his defense last year thanks with the Mets running Gary Sheffield, Luis Castillo, and Dan Murphy out there everyday, who were all below average fielders leading to his gaudy .321 BABIP (14th highest in MLB). Being luckier this season isn’t all that has caused his turn around. He has made a couple subtle changes that have resulted in early season success.
For starters he is doing the most important thing a pitcher can do by throwing more strikes and missing more bats. As the cliché in baseball goes “The most important pitch in baseball is strike one.” This season Big Pelf is throwing a first pitch strike 65.8% of the time, good for 9th in the league, opposed to just 58.1% last year. If you look at some of the pitchers ahead of him you will see pitchers whom are all great: Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Josh Beckett, Jorge de la Rosa, etc. Sometimes there are clichés like this for a reason. They just work! Once you establish strike one you can do whatever you want
with the sequence of pitches. He has also increased his K/9 by 1.64 and his swinging strike% by 0.5 (a lot more significant than it looks like). This shows that he is commanding his pitches much better making it difficult for hitters to square up on the ball.
Another major change that has made a big impact is his new split-fingered fastball. The new pitch has done two things for Big Pelf: (1)Given him another plus off-speed pitch for his repertoire. (2)By giving him another effective off-speed pitch it has made his fastball a lot more effective. Last year his fastball was hit hard and one of the worst pitches in baseball and now it has a 4.4 wFB, 7th in MLB. His split-fingered fastball is 2nd with a 2.1 wSF and 1st with a 14.24 wSF/C (the /C just denotes the stat per 100 pitches). All of spring training the talk was about how good this pitch was and it looks as if the talk was well warranted. The addition has made Big Pelf look like a completely different, more confident, pitcher than last season.
On the flip side we don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves because Pelfrey is bound for some regression. No one, and I don’t care if it is Cy Young, is going to be able to maintain such a low ERA for a full season. He has a great FIP, 2.78, and a great xFIP, 3.87, but has been extremely fortunate with a .231 BABIP. I still see no reason why if he continues to pitch the way he is and his BABIP balances out that he can’t finish the season with a low 3 ERA.
With all this talk about his gaudy ERA and win success the most important thing Pelf has done for the Mets this season, in my opinion, is turn into the workhorse of the rotation. In a rotation where it seems you are lucky to get 6 innings out of your starter, Pelfrey has reached the 6th inning in all of his starts, reached the 7th inning twice, and was even able to come in during the 20 inning game and secure the victory. Has Mike Pelfrey finally reached the hype he had when the Mets drafted him 9th overall in 2005? Mets fans can only hope.
Link Dump: April 25th, 2009
Posted by: | CommentsBaseball Handyman – Scouting the Sally – Jeurys Familia, SP, NYM
Jeurys Familia (4 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K) -Quickly becoming a serious sleeper in the Mets organization, Jeurys Familia is off to a great start posting a 2-0 Record with a 0.63 ERA and .128 BAA in his first three 2009 starts. Hailing from the Dominican Republic, the 19-year old righty was impressive in his four innings of work throwing a 90 MPH fastball and rudimentary breaking pitch; Typical of young Dominican hurlers.
Mets Fever- Figgy Back in Organization
According to Adam Rubin of the Daily News, Nelson Figueroa has re-signed a minor league deal with the Mets. After being mistreated by management, Figueroa had opted for free agency once he cleared waivers. As the Mets rotation was falling apart Figgy was testing the free agent market, with Manuel threatening rotational changes it looks like the Mets give him the best opportunity of returning to the majors.
Macks Mets -Minor Stuff – April 25, 2009
The Herd: An off day and a return home to Coca-Cola Field did nothing for the Buffalo Bisons but raise manager Ken Oberkfell’s blood pressure. The Herd’s April disaster continued with a lifeless 4-0 loss to the Syracuse Chiefs on Friday night before an announced crowd of 7,173. Buffalo managed just three hits— one was a double by pitcher Brandon Knight
Daily News -Ball, fate in hands of Mike Pelfrey
Mike Pelfrey didn’t have to be told that Saturdays’ start against Washington is an important one for him for multiple reasons. Pelfrey, who was forced to skip his previous outing last weekend with forearm tendinitis, also was made aware of manager Jerry Manuel‘s comments that all members of the Mets‘ starting rotation besides Johan Santana are in jeopardy of losing their spots unless they improve immediately.
Pelfrey/O’Day Out, Figueroa In
Posted by: | CommentsWith the news that Mike Pelfrey is going to miss his next start due to
shoulder tendinitis the Mets have called up journeyman starting pitcher Nelson Figueroa to take his place in the rotation. Figueroa is being promoted from AAA Buffalo and in order to make room for him the Mets had to place reliever Darren O’Day on waivers.
O’Day was a Rule V pick from Anaheim so he will have to be offered back to the Angels for $25,000 where the Mets will ultimately lose him back to his original team.
In his short tenure with the Mets O’Day appeared in 4 games giving up 2 unearned runs and striking out 2 in 3 innings of work.













