Archive for Ike Davis

A fanpost over at Minor League Ball about one fan’s reactions to the past Red Sox draft got me thinking about how I have felt about the Mets picks over the years and how good my feelings about them have been.

2007

Eddie Kunz – Thought this pick was just dumb. I hate drafting relievers in the first round unless they are supposed to be the next Mariano.
Not only was Kunz not the next Mo, he just sucks. If Allan Dykstra becomes anything at all it will ease the pain.

Nathan Vineyard – Big, projectable left-hander who could already hit the low 90’s. There were not going to be any complaints from me.
Had some good K number and showed some potential, but retired at 19 so we will never know if I was right or not about him.

2008

Ike Davis – I wasn’t a huge supporter of this pick. I was still holding out hope Freddie Coupons would open up the wallet for once and pick Gerrit Cole.
I was dead wrong about this one.

Reese Havens – I LOVED this pick. It was my favorite of the draft for the Mets.
He hasn’t stayed healthy, but when he has played he has been amazing. I don’t doubt he would be the Mets starting second baseman if it wasn’t for the injuries.

Brad Holt – Thought this was a HUGE overdraft. Had a good fastball, but nothing else.
Early on he made me look stupid, but lately I’m thinking I was right for not liking it.

Brett Wallace and Ike Davis

2009

Steven Matz – I liked this pick a lot. Anytime you can grab the local kid, especially with how rare they are in NY I am all for it.
Too early to make a judgment because of the injury.

2010

Matt Harvey – Wanted Chris Sale or Yasmani Grandal so I wasn’t thrilled with the pick, but I thought it was okay and was pretty happy because of his upside.
You won’t hear my complaining about the pick at all now even though I still like those two a lot.

While almost all of these could still get an “incomplete” grade I think my record right now would be 4-1-2. The three right being Harvey, Havens (Assuming he gets healthy liking this pick will be good), Holt’s command looks like it is too big of an issue for him to make and impact, and Kunz sucks. Ike Davis was clearly a big miss by me. Just never saw this potential in his bat. No one could have seen Vineyard retiring like that and Matz hasn’t pitched so he gets an incomplete.

I am pretty happy with my initial gut feelings of the draft picks so far as long as Havens comes back healthy.

Ike Davis | First Base

Season Predictions
AVG%: .276
OBP%: .361
SLG%: .487
HR: 26
RBI: 83
SB: 5

2010 Numbers: .264 | .351 | .440 | 19 HR | 71 RBI | 3 SB

162 Game Averages: .264 | .351 | .440 | 21 HR | 78 RBI | 3 SB

Davis had a fantastic rookie debut handling himself nicely with the bat and shining in the field.  Based off the sabermetrics Davis was head and shoulders the best defensive first baseman in the National League and just behind Daric Barton for the best in the MLB.  I easily see Davis improving off his numbers as I am not a big believer in the sophomore slump theory.  In terms of WAR Davis finished 12th in the MLB for first baseman and I think a top-10 finish in 2011 will happen.  If Davis gets his strikeouts under control he can become a real force with his natural power and defense.  I am setting the over/under for flipping over the railing at 4 times this season.  This one is a keeper for sure.

I’ll be filling in my own answers to some questions fans asked Adam Rubin over at a Sports Nation chat.

Tommy Crimmins (Conneticut)

Adam do you think the Mets should use Josh Thole at the 2 spot in the order because of his great contact or the 6 or 7 because he will drive in more runs

I would have Josh Thole batting 7th/8th for the fact that I want Brad Emaus, who I believe will win the second base job, to hit second because of his ability to take a walk and his strike-zone discipline.  Both players would fit perfectly into the 2 slot with no problem I just feel Emaus has the better all around skill set to take that spot.

Danny (Brooklyn)

Hey Adam,During your last chat, you mentioned that you were uncertain if Ike Davis would reach 20 homers this year. Considering the fact that he hit 19 homers as a rookie, that he’ll likely have a better lineup around him, and that most of his homers aren’t wallscrapers, what makes you doubt his power potential?

Unlike Adam Rubin I have no questions about Ike Davis‘s power.  I have him slotted to hit about 25 home runs in this season and build off his very solid rookie season.  I think an improved season from him and a bounce back from Jason Bay could do a lot for both of their power numbers.  Outside of the great defense I don’t get the John Olerud comparisons.

Luke (Brooklyn)

Who would you put money on to be the Mets starting second baseman coming out of spring training and why?

I’ve already mentioned this above that I think it will be Emaus.  He is the perfect Sandy Alderson player and if he has any say in it this will be the 2011 New York Mets starting second baseman.

Craig Lerner (New York)

Hi Adam, do you envision Willie Harris actually making the team? Does this mean Lucas Duda is out? How do you view Duda as a prospect?

Lucas Duda and Willie Harris serve to different roles on a team so I don’t see how one affects the other players spot.  Duda probably is not going to make the team anyway and he shouldn’t because he isn’t going to be playing every game and Harris could play an Endy Chavez type role as the perfect 4th outfielder on the team.

Williw (Lincoln, NE)

How had is the Mets farm system and what will it take to build it up?

The Mets system is not terrible, but not top notch as it should be with their resources.  They have a lot of decent prospects, but lack the star power.  A couple of breakout performances this year could change that all around.  If Sandy Alderson is able to go overslot in the draft that would be the big jump the Mets need to get their farm system into the upper echelon of systems.

To read Adam Rubin’s answer and see more questions go here.

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page.  I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.


1. Fernando Martinez | CF | AA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2005 (B+)

Still the Mets number 1 for me. He is just 21 and put up a great line of .290/.337/.540 in AAA before being called up. If a college draft pick went to AAA and put up that line he would probably be a top 10 prospect and Martinez gets over looked.  He was rushed to the bigs, but watch for him in 2010 if he can have a healthy season.

Best Case Outcome – Middle of the order bat with good defense

More Likely Outcome – Solid everyday player with 1-2 all-star appearances

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
Buffalo Bisons1762416828.290.337.540.319.250
New York Mets9111618.176.242.275.197.099
TOTAL2673522936.251.304.449.274.199

2. Jenrry Mejia | SP | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (B+)

The prize arm in the Mets system Mejia has a great fastball to go along with an average an average change-up and developing curve.  Nice all around numbers on the season.

Best Case Outcome – Ace starter/All-Star Closer

More Likely Outcome – Good #3/Set-up man

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets4-11.979/950.1441668%2.52
Binghamton Mets0-54.4710/1044.1482359%3.49
TOTAL4-63.1419/1994.2913964%2.95

3. Ike Davis | 1B | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B+)

Ike has all the physical tools and showed them off in 2009 with a .298 average and 20 home runs in A+ and AA.  The best part of his season was that he didn’t slow down after the promotion he improved. An aggressive ranking, but I believe in his bat.

Best Case Outcome – Slugging first baseman with great defense

More Likely Outcome – League Average first baseman with great defense.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
St. Lucie Mets2222817728.288.376.486.348.198
Binghamton Mets20730141343.309.386.565.381.256
TOTAL42958312071.298.381.524.365.226

4. Jon Niese | SP | MLB | Age – 23 | Drafted – 7th Round 2005 (B)

Gets over looked a lot because of lack of elite velocity (89.4 avg velo), but his outstanding curve and cutter that is already becoming a plus pitch will set him up for great success.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter in the mold of Andy Pettitte.

More Likely Outcome – Good #4 starter.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
St. Lucie Mets2222817728.288.376.486.348.198
Binghamton Mets20730141343.309.386.565.381.256
TOTAL42958312071.298.381.524.365.226

5. Wilmer Flores | SS | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (B)

This season was a little bit of a disappointment from Flores, especially in the power department, but being such a young age in LoA he gets some slack.

Best Case Outcome – Top-3 offensive left fielder

More Likely Outcome – Top-15 offensive left fielder

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Buffalo Bisons5-63.8216/1694.1822656%3.38
New York Mets1-14.215/525.218946%3.21
TOTAL6-73.9021/21120.01003551%3.28

6. Brad Holt | SP | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B-)

Most people are worried about the showing Holt put up in AA. He was dealing with some injuries, dominated A+, and his K rate was still pretty solid, but it was his control that hurt him.  The control would also correlate with him being injured.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter/set-up man

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets4-13.129/943.1541337%3.15
Binghamton Mets3-66.2111/1158.0452337%4.96
TOTAL7-74.9019/19101.1993937%4.20

7. Reese Havens | 2B | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B-)

He was pretty unlucky last year with a .272 BABIP I fully expect his average to go up.  Doesn’t strike out too much, gets a good amount of walks, has enough speed to up the steals, and provides good power.  He also provides those intangibles you look for in all good ballplayers.  Will be interesting to see how he adjusts to 2nd base.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average second baseman who gets 1 or 2 all-star appearances on career years.

More Likely Outcome – Solid MLB starter.

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLGBABIPISO
St. Lucie Mets36053191452.247.361.422.272.175
TOTAL36053191452.247.361.422.272.175

8. Kyle Allen | SP | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 24th Round 2008 (B-)

After a great rookie performance I had him pegged as a personal favorite/sleeper and boy he didn’t disappoint.  He has a great Fastball/Change-up combination and if he can develop a 3rd plus pitch he can become great.

Best Case Outcome – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats9-63.4525/19125.11115159%3.74
TOTAL9-63.4525/19125.11115159%3.74

9. Josh Thole | C | MLB | Age – 23 | Drafted – 13th Round 2005 (C+)

He has to be cut some slack for his defense.  He has turned into a decent fielder for the amount of time he has been behind the plate and seems to make improvements each year. He will never hit for power, but as a catcher with his average and walks he should be fine.

Best Case Outcome – slight above-average MLB catcher

More Likely Outcome – average MLB catcher

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
Binghamton Mets3844829146.328.395.422.349.094
New York Mets532209.321.356.396.340.075
TOTAL4375031155.327.394.419.348.092

10. Kirk Nieuwenhuis | CF | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2008 (C+)

Simply had a great 2009.  He is a big kid and the power he has been showing is for real. Has enough speed to stick at center, but his arm is a little weak and that is the only thing I could see moving him to a corner spot.  So far the jump to AA went amazing and it will be nice to see if he can continue it.  Needs to cut down on K’s.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average center fielder in the mold of Aaron Rowand.

More Likely Outcome – Solid MLB center fielder.

TEAMABR2BHRRBIAVGOBPSLGBABIPISO
St. Lucie Mets48291351671.276.358.469.336.193
Binghamton Mets328312.406.472.656.545.250
TOTAL5149938173.284.366.481.348.196

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