Archive for Major League
Grading the Omar Regime: The 2005 Draft
Posted by: | CommentsThe majority of my memories of the Mets time under Omar Minaya are positive ones. It was the first time since I began to follow baseball with a burning passion that the Mets were a truly competitive team and it was a time that saw my favorite player of all-time, Pedro Martinez, don my favorite team’s jersey. A lot of positive memories.
With the state of the Mets today, however, I decided I wanted to take a detailed look into Omar’s tenure with the Mets and see how much credit/blame he deserves. Granted there are many, many other people that are involved in the decision making process, but at the end of the day decisions need the general manager’s stamp of approval. I have always viewed Omar as someone from the “Isiah Thomas School of Managing”—terrific at evaluating talent, but poor at putting together a collective team so it is time to put my perception to the test.
What better way to start of this series than with his first draft as the GM of the team.
*For these graphs I only counted players who signed with the team they were drafted with in 2005. So with the Mets for example, Pedro Beato was not counted and the same with Vance Worley and the Phillies.*
Our first graph shows how many players each team has had reach the big leagues through 2011.
The Mets five players to reach the majors is slightly above the league average and tied for 10th best in the league, putting them in the top third. The players who made it are Mike Pelfrey (1.9), Drew Butera (5.149), Jon Niese (7.209), Bobby Parnell (9.269), and Josh Thole (13.389). Luis Martinez (11.329) and Pedro Beato (17.509) both also have time on major league rosters, but chose not to sign with the Mets in 2005.
Five out of 48 players, or 10.4 percent, sounds like it wasn’t a very successful year but those numbers are actually very good when put into perspective. In 2004 the Mets had 50 picks and only three have made it to the majors, four of the 50 picks in 2003 have made it, two of 48 from 2002, five of 52 picks from 2001 have major league service time and the Mets were working with four picks in the top 76, and four of 51 from 2001 draft made it even though the Mets had four picks in the top 100.
Going solely by the number of contributing draft picks, Omar’s first draft was a big improvement from the previous ones run by Steve Phillips and Jim Duquette.
Our second graphs shows the total WAR accumulated by the players through the 2011 season.
The Mets ranked 17th putting them just in the lower half of the league which isn’t great, but it is respectable. As the next graph will show the stats really weren’t skewed that much by one great players, with the Rockies (Troy Tulowitzki), Royals (Alex Gordon), and Blue Jays (Ricky Romero) as the only teams with a total higher WAR than the Mets and have two players or less make it to the majors.
Graph three is simply taking the average WAR each player who made the big leagues as contributed.
Here is where the numbers are thrown off because of those three teams mentioned above. With those three teams included the average WAR per player in 2.97 (pictured above), without them the average WAR per player drops considerably to 1.85. At 1.26 the Mets average WAR per player is just shy of the average when the Rockies, Royals, and Blue Jays are not included and ranks 16th overall.
Again on the surface these aren’t outstanding results, but when putting things in perspective it is quiet amazing the Mets rank this high in both categories.
With the blockbuster signings of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran (a topic for another series) the Mets forfeited their second and third round picks, with their first round pick being protected, and made their second pick at 119th overall. That is a lot of top talent going off the board in between picks. An argument can be made this actually worked in the Mets favor. One could say it allowed the Mets to draft Mike Pelfrey, who slipped because of his demands, since they were able to put a large chunk of their budget into signing him knowing they didn’t have to pay other high round guys. And while that is a fair argument to make I can’t buy into it as being beneficial knowing with the amount of uncertainty in the MLB draft the more chances you have to strike lightning the better.
This final graph is a very basic one that shows where the true value of the Mets draft lies.
The graph simply shows the amount of players that contributed last year only on the team that drafted them. Now I used the term “contribution” loosely because my criteria was they had to suit up for at least one game. The Mets finished tied for second and all four players were key to the team in 2011, not just roster fillers. Niese and Pelfrey made up 40 percent of the rotation, Thole was the starting catcher, and Parnell made some important contributions out of the bullpen. This is considerably better than Twins who also had four player, but that consisted of a reliever with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter who was only able to pitch in 12 games with an ERA in the 6′s, and a bench player who batted just .203 over 60 games.
This final fact about their draft really puts things over the top for Omar. In 2010 when Jonathan Mayo did a 2005 re-draft, he put Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese in the first round. Now I do not know how every player not included on this list has progressed since Mayo put it out, but if the list was done today I would definitely take Josh Thole over Will Venable, who was awarded the last spot in the first round.
To sum things up and put a letter grade on the 2005 draft, I think Omar deserves an A-. The draft didn’t produce any real stars for the Mets, but Pelfrey was a successful first round pick even if he frustrates fans and Niese is still improving and could turn out to be the Mets best pick of the draft. Getting Parnell was a terrific scouting job for Omar and co. to see the potential in his arm despite being a shortstop for most of his career and developing him accordingly. Easily one of the Mets best drafts in recent history. Score this one a win for Omar.
*Stats from Baseball-Reference*
Prospects to Watch for Beltran Trade
Posted by: | CommentsIf the Mets are truly interested in getting an “A” prospect in return for Carlos Beltran here are some guys they need to consider from potentially interested teams.
Mets Want Big Prospect For Beltran, Can’t Blame Them
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I have been trying to push this point a lot in comments on Twitter and what not to those who say the Mets will not get much for Carlos Beltran. The fact of the matter is that All-Stars don’t show up on the trade market every year and a team in contention who needs a bat (I am looking at you San Francisco Giants) will need a bat and they won’t find a better way for trade than Beltran. If they really feel like they have a shot at a World Series, it would be unintelligent of them to pass on Beltran just because he is an impending free agent and they cannot offer him arbitration.
I plan on doing a post that looks at the top prospects who the Mets should ask for from Beltran suitors.
I Need More Reyes
Posted by: | Comments…I will be truly saddened if this man is not a Met next year. So many classic moments and memories with Jose. I still crack up everytime I watch this commericial…
Another Reliever With Control Problems
Posted by: | CommentsThe Mets have optioned reliever Mike O’Connor to Triple-A Buffalo and according to Adam Rubin are expected to announce that reliever Manny Acosta has been added to the roster.
O’Connor went 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 6.2 innings on five hits and three walks while striking out eight.
(Andrew Burton/Getty Images North America)
O’Connor looked good early on, but really labored in the last couple of outings. His command was off and he gave up some big hits, including a devastating one to Chase Utley in the Phillies series. The Mets are now left with just Tim Byrdak is a left-handed pitcher out of the pen.
In 20 games for Buffalo this season Acosta has gone 1-0 with four saves and a 1.77 ERA. On the positive side he has given up just 13 hits and struckout 27 men. On the negative side he has allowed 17 walks in just 20.1 innings.
It is a little frustrating to have yet another reliever who has struggled with is command come onto the team. Ryota Igarashi came up and posed an absurd 8.5 BB/9, Pat Misch and D.J. Carraso each posed a 5.1 BB/9, and Bobby Parnell‘s BB/9 is sitting pretty at 7.0 and it looks like he can’t throw a strike right now. Heck even Francisco Rodriguez has walked 4.3 per 9. The only pitchers that have been consistently good with their command all year are Pedro Beato and Taylor Buchholz, who is now sitting on the DL.
Acosta was much better in the month of May than April with his command so hopefully most of that was attributed to early season rust.
I like Acosta and he has earned the promotion, I just liked the idea of having two lefties in the pen and I get very irritated with relievers who don’t come in and throw strikes.
MMP Awards for May
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MLB
Hitter of the Month: Jose Reyes
.364/.421/.555 | 9 2B | 6 3B | 18 R | 10 RBI | 11/13 SB | 11:8 BB:K
One of two things is sure with how well Reyes is playing right now. (1) The Mets are going to get a very good package of prospects for him, or at least one much better than the Homer Bailey/Zack Cozart package Buster Olney felt they would get before the seasons, or (2) The amount of money the Mets will have to give Jose is going through the roof. Hopefully it is the later of the two.
Pitcher of the Month: Dillon Gee
3-0 | 3.48 ERA | 33.2 IP | 25 H | 13 R | 13 ER | 13 bb | 27 so
Gee has been a Godsend for this Mets team much like R.A. Dickey was last year. His performances were just terrific this month. He showed he has what it takes to be a major league pitcher in the game against the Cubs when he got rocked early on, but made the necessary adjustments and settled everything down to pick up the seven inning “complete game” victory.
Triple-A
Hitter of the Month: Kirk Nieuwenhuis
.302/.394/.488 | 6 2B | 2 3B | 2 HR | 14 R | 8 RBI | 3/4 SB | 13:29 BB:K
Captain Kirk missed the last week of the month after making one of the best catches you’ll see in the minors this year and was still was by far the best hitter on the Bisons. He could actually have some competition for the month of June with Lucas Duda and Fernando Martinez.
Time to Give Dale Thayer a Shot
Posted by: | CommentsThe Mets bullpen started off the year as Achilles’ heel causing some big loses on terrific starts by Jon Niese and Chris Young, but turned things around on the back of closer Francisco Rodriguez who is having a monstrous year.
Coinciding with the injury to Pedro Beato things went back to being bad, mainly as a result of having to rely on Ryota Igarashi so much. With Beato back and Igarashi gone things are getting back on track now with the Mets sitting comfortably with the 11th best bullpen ERA in baseball.
With the poor starting rotation they have this year, however, there cannot be even one weak link in the pen. Management has done a good job weeding out the bad seeds by DFAing Blaine Boyer, sending Igarashi back down to Triple-A, and getting fortunate that Bobby Parnell found his way off the roster due to injury.
There is one more change they can make to push the bullpen to the next level.
Pat Misch was terrible for Buffalo early in the year, but needed to be called up because of the need of a long man/spot starter with all the injuries affectin
g both the rotation and pen as well as the Mets having to deal with double headers. Not surprisingly he hasn’t fared much better since being called up posting a 7.50 ERA and showing a lack of command, which he needs to succeed.
Michael O’Connor has been given a chance and has emerged as a viable option out of the pen, having yet to give up a run in seven appearances.
O’Connor is death on lefties thanks to his nontraditional delivery and is showing the ability to get out righties as well. O’Connor along with Tim Byrdak gives the Mets two good left-handed options out of the pen making Misch expendable.
Enter the mustache wonder Dale Thayer. Thayer is a 30-year-old career minor leaguer who has been terrific at every level he has pitched at in the minors and unfairly been given just a couple tastes of coffee at the big league level.
He is no junkerballer either, with good stuff including a fastball that sits 91-94 mph and true plus pitch in a slider.
Thayer has continued his minor league success this year posting terrific numbers in Buffalo going 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in 20 games, pitching 26.1 innings, striking out 25 men, and showing amazing command by walking just six batters.
The only thing Thayer has going against him is he is not a member of the 40-man roster. The Mets have two things they can do to accommodate room for Thayer on the roster. (1) They can DFA Igarashi who is sure to go unclaimed and send Misch down to the minors with the odds of him opting out being very slim or (2) just DFA Misch, which would essentially cut ties with him from the organization.
With the way he has been pitching Thayer has earned a spot in the bullpen and with the precedent Sandy Alderson has already set having a short leash on players that don’t produce, Misch is making it an easy decision to give the journeyman reliever his first legitimate shot at being a major league reliever.
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