Archive for Players
Top 50 In Depth: No. 50 – Robbie Shields
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Birthdate: 12/07/1987 (24-years-old)
Height/Weight: 6’1” / 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right / Right
Drafted: 3rd Round (103rd overall) in 2009
College: Florida Southern College
Position: 2B
Top Level in 2011: HiA – St. Lucie Mets
2011 Rank: 30
2011 Season:
Shields spent the majority of his 2011 season at Savannah, but saw some time later in the year for St. Lucie. Unfortunately, injuries got the best of him again, as issues with his back allowed him to play in just 80 games combined between the two levels.
When he was on the field he produced. He showed pretty good pop for a middle infielder (33 extra base hits) and as he continues to build up strength following the TJS that number should only imrpove. He was old for LoA so his plate discipline there does not mean much there, but it held up with the promotion to St. Lucie and even slightly improved, granted it was a very small sample size.
His triple slash line was better than the league average in the Sally (.274/.354/.425 to .260/.332/.392) and he was at the league average in the FSL (.258/.328/.379 to .261/.330/.385) so it would be nice to see the kind of numbers he could put up over a full, healthy season.
He lost some positional value with the switch to second, but he put up good numbers defensively after the switch and should be more than adequate at the position so I do not see that as a big deal.
Summary:
There was a time when Shields was considered just behind Grant Green for the top shortstop in college baseball. That time seems like an eternity ago. A sub-par junior season, Tommy John surgery, and a position change now leave him as a fringe prospect at best.
The fact that the organization took their time pushing Josh Satin through the system makes me think they might try and do the same with Shields, although I do not agree with the decision. He should open 2012 as St. Lucie’s starting second baseman and if he proves healthy and puts up good number through the first month of the season I would not hesitate to promote him to Binghamton.
Final Grade: 5.0C – 4.0C (The first grade shows their perfect world ceiling and the second grade is more realistic expectations)
MLB.com REALLY Likes Rafael Montero
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I was checking out MLB.com’s Mets top 20 prospect watch and was absolutely shocked to see Rafael Montero in the top 20, let alone all the way up at number 10.
This is an extremely aggressive ranking and sort of takes the wind out of the “sleeper alert’ I placed on Montero.
It is really tough for me to envision how Montero is a better prospect than Kirk Nieuwenhuis under any circumstances at this point in their career.
There is plenty to love with Montero, but the Mets are going to need to be ultra aggressive with him because he is already 21-years-old and has just one year of professional baseball under his belt. It was a terrific rise last year and still feel it is comparable to Jenrry Mejia‘s so MLB.com could just be hoping lightning strikes twice in the Mets organization.
Am I Too Low On Wilfredo Tovar?
Posted by: | CommentsI recently put together my top 50 prospects for 2012 and left 20-year-old SS/2B prospect Wilfredo Tovar off the list. He was a strong consideration for the back end of the list, but I was too scared by his low average and lack of power to include him.
Toby Hyde at Mets Minor League Blog is putting together his top 41 prospects and ranked Tovar No. 29 overall stating:
Tovar moves up a few spots from last year because 1. He’s the best defensive shortstop in the system and 2. He improved offensively, and in particular, became much more patient at the plate and 3. He only turned 20 last August.
Then in a video talking about the Mets Frankie Piliere of Scout.com when asked who he liked in the Mets system he stated that, while he is not the biggest name, Tovar is one of his favorites and a name to watch.
I respect Hyde and Piliere’s opinions a lot so their stances have me considering changing my own stance on Tovar.
I might be discounting his defense too much because his defense is likely going to help him find a way onto a big league roster at some point and that kind of ability cannot be overlooked.
His numbers slightly regressed in 2011 at Savannah and even though he is just 19-years-old there really isn’t much reason to assume he will improve offensively. He already has an advanced approach at the plate and he will always be punchless. This is a really tough situation for me because I don’t have faith in his bat coming around, which could turn him into a Wilson Valdez-esque player.
Still is that not more valuable than a 24-year-old in HiA who is learning a new position and is not all that likely to reach the majors?
Grading the Omar Regime: The 2005 Draft
Posted by: | CommentsThe majority of my memories of the Mets time under Omar Minaya are positive ones. It was the first time since I began to follow baseball with a burning passion that the Mets were a truly competitive team and it was a time that saw my favorite player of all-time, Pedro Martinez, don my favorite team’s jersey. A lot of positive memories.
With the state of the Mets today, however, I decided I wanted to take a detailed look into Omar’s tenure with the Mets and see how much credit/blame he deserves. Granted there are many, many other people that are involved in the decision making process, but at the end of the day decisions need the general manager’s stamp of approval. I have always viewed Omar as someone from the “Isiah Thomas School of Managing”—terrific at evaluating talent, but poor at putting together a collective team so it is time to put my perception to the test.
What better way to start of this series than with his first draft as the GM of the team.
*For these graphs I only counted players who signed with the team they were drafted with in 2005. So with the Mets for example, Pedro Beato was not counted and the same with Vance Worley and the Phillies.*
Our first graph shows how many players each team has had reach the big leagues through 2011.
The Mets five players to reach the majors is slightly above the league average and tied for 10th best in the league, putting them in the top third. The players who made it are Mike Pelfrey (1.9), Drew Butera (5.149), Jon Niese (7.209), Bobby Parnell (9.269), and Josh Thole (13.389). Luis Martinez (11.329) and Pedro Beato (17.509) both also have time on major league rosters, but chose not to sign with the Mets in 2005.
Five out of 48 players, or 10.4 percent, sounds like it wasn’t a very successful year but those numbers are actually very good when put into perspective. In 2004 the Mets had 50 picks and only three have made it to the majors, four of the 50 picks in 2003 have made it, two of 48 from 2002, five of 52 picks from 2001 have major league service time and the Mets were working with four picks in the top 76, and four of 51 from 2001 draft made it even though the Mets had four picks in the top 100.
Going solely by the number of contributing draft picks, Omar’s first draft was a big improvement from the previous ones run by Steve Phillips and Jim Duquette.
Our second graphs shows the total WAR accumulated by the players through the 2011 season.
The Mets ranked 17th putting them just in the lower half of the league which isn’t great, but it is respectable. As the next graph will show the stats really weren’t skewed that much by one great players, with the Rockies (Troy Tulowitzki), Royals (Alex Gordon), and Blue Jays (Ricky Romero) as the only teams with a total higher WAR than the Mets and have two players or less make it to the majors.
Graph three is simply taking the average WAR each player who made the big leagues as contributed.
Here is where the numbers are thrown off because of those three teams mentioned above. With those three teams included the average WAR per player in 2.97 (pictured above), without them the average WAR per player drops considerably to 1.85. At 1.26 the Mets average WAR per player is just shy of the average when the Rockies, Royals, and Blue Jays are not included and ranks 16th overall.
Again on the surface these aren’t outstanding results, but when putting things in perspective it is quiet amazing the Mets rank this high in both categories.
With the blockbuster signings of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran (a topic for another series) the Mets forfeited their second and third round picks, with their first round pick being protected, and made their second pick at 119th overall. That is a lot of top talent going off the board in between picks. An argument can be made this actually worked in the Mets favor. One could say it allowed the Mets to draft Mike Pelfrey, who slipped because of his demands, since they were able to put a large chunk of their budget into signing him knowing they didn’t have to pay other high round guys. And while that is a fair argument to make I can’t buy into it as being beneficial knowing with the amount of uncertainty in the MLB draft the more chances you have to strike lightning the better.
This final graph is a very basic one that shows where the true value of the Mets draft lies.
The graph simply shows the amount of players that contributed last year only on the team that drafted them. Now I used the term “contribution” loosely because my criteria was they had to suit up for at least one game. The Mets finished tied for second and all four players were key to the team in 2011, not just roster fillers. Niese and Pelfrey made up 40 percent of the rotation, Thole was the starting catcher, and Parnell made some important contributions out of the bullpen. This is considerably better than Twins who also had four player, but that consisted of a reliever with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter who was only able to pitch in 12 games with an ERA in the 6′s, and a bench player who batted just .203 over 60 games.
This final fact about their draft really puts things over the top for Omar. In 2010 when Jonathan Mayo did a 2005 re-draft, he put Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese in the first round. Now I do not know how every player not included on this list has progressed since Mayo put it out, but if the list was done today I would definitely take Josh Thole over Will Venable, who was awarded the last spot in the first round.
To sum things up and put a letter grade on the 2005 draft, I think Omar deserves an A-. The draft didn’t produce any real stars for the Mets, but Pelfrey was a successful first round pick even if he frustrates fans and Niese is still improving and could turn out to be the Mets best pick of the draft. Getting Parnell was a terrific scouting job for Omar and co. to see the potential in his arm despite being a shortstop for most of his career and developing him accordingly. Easily one of the Mets best drafts in recent history. Score this one a win for Omar.
*Stats from Baseball-Reference*
First Look At Prospect Rafael Montero
Posted by: | CommentsBy random chance I bumped into this video just posted yesterday that claims to be of Mets prospect, Rafael Montero with the GCL Mets. He looks to be about the listed 6’0″ 170 lbs on his player card so there is a good chance this is indeed him.
Mechanics look to be pretty simple and easily repeatable, which is the likely cause for Montero’s command. It looks like a slight “gunslinger” motion ala Ubaldo Jimine, something I do not like very much. Although, it is still not a real issue.
On the season Montero is 2-2, 1.43 ERA in 10 games combined with the DSL Mets and GCL Mets. In 40 innings he has allowed just 30 hits and a minuscule 6 walks, while striking out 49.
Today Montero gave up one unearned run over five innings on five hits and no walks.
Prospects to Watch for Beltran Trade
Posted by: | CommentsIf the Mets are truly interested in getting an “A” prospect in return for Carlos Beltran here are some guys they need to consider from potentially interested teams.
Mets Want Big Prospect For Beltran, Can’t Blame Them
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I have been trying to push this point a lot in comments on Twitter and what not to those who say the Mets will not get much for Carlos Beltran. The fact of the matter is that All-Stars don’t show up on the trade market every year and a team in contention who needs a bat (I am looking at you San Francisco Giants) will need a bat and they won’t find a better way for trade than Beltran. If they really feel like they have a shot at a World Series, it would be unintelligent of them to pass on Beltran just because he is an impending free agent and they cannot offer him arbitration.
I plan on doing a post that looks at the top prospects who the Mets should ask for from Beltran suitors.
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