Back on January 29th, 2008 the Mets completed a blockbuster trade by acquiring two time Cy Young winner Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for four prospects inlcuding Venezuelan right hander Deolis Guerra. At the time Guerra was considered the Mets top pitching prospect. 

He broke onto the scene as a 17-year-old in 2006 posting a  6-7 record with a 2.20 ERA in 81.2 innings (17 starts) while showing strong groundball tendencies. He struggled a bit with his command, but at such a young age it wasn’t much of a concern and the Mets like him enough to even give him a cup of coffee in high-A St. Lucie. Guerra was seen as a young pitcher with a live arm whose best weapon was a changeup, causing people to drool over him.

In 2007 he was not nearly as successful, but he was still able to get the benefit of the doubt for being young for his level. That year he posted a 4.01 ERA in 20 starts as an 18-year-old in high-A with a decent K/9.  Scouts still loved his arn, liked that his command had improved, and that he was getting even more groundballs. Baseball America was impressed enough to invite him to the Future’s Game and ranked him as the second best pitcher appearing in it adding this little blurb on him:

“Just unbelievable stuff with great life and movement late in the zone,” an American League scout said. “His breaking ball is very good right now, but it has a chance to be plus-plus. He pounds the zone, repeats well for a big-bodied guy, and really has a chance to be special.”

It was at this time, while his stock was sky high, that the Mets inlcuded him as one of the main pieces in the deal for Johan.  Guerra has been on a steady decline ever since switching organizations.

(Scott Jontes/MiLB.com)

In 2008 he repeated the Florida State League and was lit up. He gave up 138 hits in 130 innings while walking 71 batters and striking out just 71. The K:BB ratio was terrible and he went from being a groundball pitcher to a flyball guy. Scouts noted that at this time he lost some velocity on his fastball and his stock started to plumet.

Ever since then things have continued to be bad for Guerra. Over the last two seasons he has spent time in high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A posting poor results at at every level.

In 2011 he was assigned back down to Double-A and is having one of his worst seasons early on going, 2-2 with a 9.18 ERA over 16.2 innigs. Over the 16 innings he has given up an astounding 26 hits.

While Guerra is just 22-years-old  he has shown no improvement with his command, has been striking out less batters, and getting hit harder despite repreating levels.  The Twins like him enough to keep him on their 40-man roster, but his lack of ability to adapt and make adjustments to go along with declining stuff makes it unlikely that he will ever have a successful major league career. His age and reputation will likely be the only thing that keeps him getting chances with organizations before he is out of baseball completely.