I am currently working towards releasing my annual top 50 prospect list for the New York Mets.  I am still a little unsure of how I plan on putting it out there, but I am leaning towards doing them in increments of 10 prospects at a time. This year I decided to go a little riskier with my list so there might be some rankings that you question, but that is the beauty of prospect rankings.

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page. I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.

41. Armando Rodriguez | SP | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007

This is a severe injustice ranking Rodriguez so low. He is probably going to sky rocket up the list this year working his way into possibly the teens.

Perfect World Projection – MLB Starter

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

42. Alonzo Harris | 2B | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 39th Round 2007 (C-)

We already knew he had above average speed, but last year he showed a lot more pop then expected.  His game is very raw, but he has loads of potential.

Perfect World Projection – Good offensive MLB 2nd baseman

More Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer

43. Chase Greene | CF | GCL | Age – 20 | Drafted – 16th Round 2009 (C-)

Great athlete who was bought out of a college commitment.  Reminds me a bit of Red Sox’s prospect Ryan Kalish.  Hopefully he can have a similar development.

Perfect World Projection – Average MLB center fielder

More Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder

44. Lucas Duda | 1B | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 7th Round 2007 (C-)

Has a line drive swing that has enabled him to maintain a high BABIP for his career and knows how to draw a walk, but hasn’t shown enough power to be a first baseman despite great size.

Perfect World Projection – MLB 1st baseman (Sean Casey type)

More Likely Outcome – Bench player

45. Yohan Almonte | SP | Rk | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C-)

Another young armed probably ranked a tad too low with great sleeper potential.  His peripherals were great last year and was even a bit unlucky with a high BABIP and low FIP compared to his ERA.  I will be interested to see where he goes in 2010.

Perfect World Projection – MLB starter

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

46. Julio Concepcion | OF | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C-)

Big toolsy outfield with a lot of speed and developing power.  If he can add muscle onto his lanky frame he can develop into a legitimate prospect.

Perfect World Projection – MLB outfielder

More Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer

47. Josh Stinson | RP | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 37th Round 2007 (C-)

Stinson was lights out as a reliever last your, but I’m just not into ranking someone who will max out as a reliever too high.

Perfect World Projection – Set up man

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

48. Roy Merritt | RP | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 29th Round 2007 (C-)

I liked Merritt when I watched him, but his average at best fastball leaves a lot to be desired.

Perfect World Projection – LOOGY

More Likely Outcome – LOOGY

49. Stefan Welch | 3B | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C-)

I have a special spot for the lanky Aussie.  Is decent at everything, but hasn’t really shown any plus tools as of yet.

Perfect World Projection – Bench player

More Likely Outcome – AAAA Player

50. Chris Schwinden | SP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 22nd Round 2008 (C-)

Another personal favorite I saved for the last spot.  Fringe fastball, but decent off speed offerings and good command have gotten him by so far.  I don’t see him facing any problems in St. Lucie, but Binghamton will be the real challenge.

Perfect World Projection – Innings eater

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page. I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.

31. Francisco Pena | C | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C)

Continues to remind me of Bengie Molina except he is not as good or as talented.  So pretty much a very very big body behind the plate.  I am not a big fan of Pena, but he is still young so I guess there is still some hope, but not enough for me.  Strikes out too much, doesn’t walk enough, and doesn’t make enough contact.

Perfect World Projection – MLB Catcher

More Likely Outcome – Career Minor Leaguer

32. Shawn Bowman | 3B | AA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 12th Round 2002 (C)

Former top prospect who has been destroyed by back injuries.  When healthy he has shown good power and defense.  His defense alone could net him a spot on a big league roster one day.

Perfect World Projection – Average MLB 3rd Baseman

More Likely Outcome – Bench player used for defense

33. Darrell  Ceciliani | CF | Rk | Age – 19 | Drafted – 4th Round 2009 (C)

Was compared to a poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury on draft day and showed way in his brief stint in the minors with 14 stolen bases.  Was unlucky, especially for someone with his speed, so I certainly expect his average to go up.  Also showed pretty good defense with 4 outfield assists.

Perfect World Projection – Starting center field leadoff hitter who creates havoc with his speed

More Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder

34. Richard Lucas | 3B | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 4th Round 2007 (C)

Big kid with pretty good power started to put it together a little bit last year.  Biggest issue is the strikeout which he count down on a lot last year, but still needs refinement.

Perfect World Projection – Starting 3rd baseman

More Likely Outcome – Organization guy

35. Sean Ratliff | OF | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 4th Round 2008 (C)

He doesn’t have a pretty swing, but I still liked his stroke even with the slight uppercut.  He looks good defensively in right or left field and has a really strong arm which is probably his best asset.  Strikes out way too much and needs to walk more or else he’ll flame out soon.

Perfect World Projection – Borderline starting outfielder

More Likely Outcome – AAAA Slugger

36. Eddie Kunz | RP | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 1st Round Supp. 2007 (C)

Kunz has fallen out of favor with me and I don’t see too much to like.  His fastball has lost sink, his slider has flattened out, and he is still in awful shape.  He is here on pedigree alone.

Perfect World Projection – Middle relief pitcher

More Likely Outcome – AAA Closer

37. Nick Santomauro | RF | Rk | Age – 21 | Drafted – 10th Round 2009 (C)

I feel like I am ranking him too low here.  He is a person favorite and sleeper for 2010.  He is super athletic and looked better than his stats say.  He has great power and does a good job walking if he can cut down on the strikeouts he will be golden.

Perfect World Projection – MLB outfielder

More Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder

38. Nelfi Zapata | C | Rk | Age – 19 | Drafted – 19th Round 2009 (C)

Got off to a hot start and then cooled off a lot.  Has great power that can be seen from his videos in his power showcases.  Looks like a good catching prospect moving forward.

Perfect World Projection – MLB catcher

More Likely Outcome – Power bat off the bench

39. Scott Shaw | SP | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 13th Round 2008 (C)

Gets a bit overlooked because of his lack of plus stuff, but is a solid pitching prospect.  He is able to command a complete arsenal of pitches that he can throw for strikes.  Crucial year for Shaw in 2010.

Perfect World Projection – #5 Starter

More Likely Outcome – Relief pitcher or AAA pitcher

40. James Fuller | SP | Rk | Age – 22 | Drafted – 21st Round 2008 (C)

Undersized lefty who has a good somewhat power arsenal and racks up the K’s and GB’s.  If he is moved back to the pen he can move quickly through the organization and make an impact out of the pen.  Real bulldog on the mound.

Perfect World Projection – LOOGY

More Likely Outcome – LOOGY

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page. I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.

21. Zach Dotson| SP | HS | Age – 19 | Drafted – 13th Round 2009 (C)

Big projecteble lefty prep lefty taken in this year’s draft and one of the few over slot picks by the Mets.  Already has a good enough fastball just needs to refine his change-up.  Very althetic and is my sleeper pick for 2010.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4/5 starter

NO STATS

22. Dillon Gee  | SP | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 21st Round 2007 (C)

Gee is no fireballer, but he knows how to pitch and get things done with superb command. I thought he had a shot to pitch on the Mets last year and then he got injured and that all went down the drawn.  If he has a successful campaign early in AAA he has a shot to come up later during the year.

Perfect World Projection – #4 starter

More Likely Outcome – #5 starter/Middle relief

23. Brant Rustich | SP | HiA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2007 (C)

Huge guy standing 6’6 230 lbs with the stuff to go along with it. His big size and big stuff have provided good results when healthy.  The problem is he is always hurt.  This is going to be a crucial year in his development as a prospect. My advice is move him back to the pen full time.

Perfect World Projection – Top Set-Up man/Closer

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

24. Zach Lutz | 3B | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 5th Round 2007 (C)

Just a professional hitter.  He knows what he is doing with a compact swing, but can’t play much defense. Think of him as a Daniel Murphy type of player (although I think he has a better shot to stick at 3rd than Murph).

Perfect World Projection – Solid Regular

More Likely Outcome – Role player/great pinch hitter

25. Aderlin Rodriguez | 3B | GCL | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (C)

The Mets big international free agent signing of 2008.  He has filled out a bit more than other Latin signees at 210 lbs and already has shown good power.  He has been an absolute pitcher in the field, but was also recovering from a broken wrist so we will see if that had anything to do with it next year.

Perfect World Projection – All-Star 3rd baseman

More Likely Outcome – MLB player

26. Jordany Valdespin | 2B | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C)

All tools right now,  Valdespin has a world of talent but got into some of the field trouble that caused the Mets to suspend him several times and have him seem to “disappear”.  He has good speed and has shown a decent amount of pop.

Perfect World Projection – MLB 2nd baseman

More Likely Outcome – MLB role player

27. Tobi Stoner | SP | MLB | Age – 25 | Drafted – 16th round 2006 (C)

Start who gets away with fringe stuff at best.  What he is able to do well is incorporate a 4 pitch arsenal that he can throw for strikes.  If he can refine his curve or slider a little more he has a shot to stick as a starter.

Perfect World Projection – #5 starter innings eater

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

28. Robbie Shields | SS | SSA | Age – 22 | Drafted– 2nd round 2009 (C)

Was highly regarded after his sophomore season, but fell down some draft boards after a subpar junior season.  Was terrible in Brooklyn, but he still has good tools and I thought he looked better in Brooklyn then his stats will lead you to believe.  He would rank higher if not for Tommy John surgery which could make the predicted move off of short come sooner rather than later.

Perfect World Projection – MLB starting shortstop

More Likely Outcome – Bench player

29. Eduardo Aldama | SP | Rk | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C)

Young Latin player with a live arm was fairly successful in Kingsport.  He strikes out a lot of batters and maintains a nice GB% giving him a great combo of K’s and GBs..  Serious sleeper for 2010.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

30. Carlos Guzman | RF | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – UFA 2006 (C)

Very underrated prospect.  He is a New York boy who went undrafted, but has done nothing but hit since he signed with the Mets.  A big kid with great power numbers for the FSL.  Hopefully he doesn’t go the Brahiam Moldonado route and take five steps back this season.

Perfect World Projection – MLB outfielder

More Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder/AAAA player

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page.  I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.

1. Fernando Martinez | CF | AA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2005 (B+)

Still the Mets number 1 for me. He is just 21 and put up a great line of .290/.337/.540 in AAA before being called up. If a college draft pick went to AAA and put up that line he would probably be a top 10 prospect and Martinez gets over looked.  He was rushed to the bigs, but watch for him in 2010 if he can have a healthy season.

Best Case Outcome – Middle of the order bat with good defense

More Likely Outcome – Solid everyday player with 1-2 all-star appearances

2. Jenrry Mejia | SP | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (B+)

The prize arm in the Mets system Mejia has a great fastball to go along with an average an average change-up and developing curve.  Nice all around numbers on the season.

Best Case Outcome – Ace starter/All-Star Closer

More Likely Outcome – Good #3/Set-up man

3. Ike Davis | 1B | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B+)

Ike has all the physical tools and showed them off in 2009 with a .298 average and 20 home runs in A+ and AA.  The best part of his season was that he didn’t slow down after the promotion he improved. An aggressive ranking, but I believe in his bat.

Best Case Outcome – Slugging first baseman with great defense

More Likely Outcome – League Average first baseman with great defense.

4. Jon Niese | SP | MLB | Age – 23 | Drafted – 7th Round 2005 (B)

Gets over looked a lot because of lack of elite velocity (89.4 avg velo), but his outstanding curve and cutter that is already becoming a plus pitch will set him up for great success.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter in the mold of Andy Pettitte.

More Likely Outcome – Good #4 starter.

5. Wilmer Flores | SS | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (B)

This season was a little bit of a disappointment from Flores, especially in the power department, but being such a young age in LoA he gets some slack.

Best Case Outcome – Top-3 offensive left fielder

More Likely Outcome – Top-15 offensive left fielder

6. Brad Holt | SP | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B-)

Most people are worried about the showing Holt put up in AA. He was dealing with some injuries, dominated A+, and his K rate was still pretty solid, but it was his control that hurt him.  The control would also correlate with him being injured.

Best Case Outcome – #2 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter/set-up man

7. Reese Havens | 2B | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B-)

He was pretty unlucky last year with a .272 BABIP I fully expect his average to go up.  Doesn’t strike out too much, gets a good amount of walks, has enough speed to up the steals, and provides good power.  He also provides those intangibles you look for in all good ballplayers.  Will be interesting to see how he adjusts to 2nd base.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average second baseman who gets 1 or 2 all-star appearances on career years.

More Likely Outcome – Solid MLB starter.

8. Kyle Allen | SP | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 24th Round 2008 (B-)

After a great rookie performance I had him pegged as a personal favorite/sleeper and boy he didn’t disappoint.  He has a great Fastball/Change-up combination and if he can develop a 3rd plus pitch he can become great.

Best Case Outcome – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

9. Josh Thole | C | MLB | Age – 23 | Drafted – 13th Round 2005 (C+)

He has to be cut some slack for his defense.  He has turned into a decent fielder for the amount of time he has been behind the plate and seems to make improvements each year. He will never hit for power, but as a catcher with his average and walks he should be fine.

Best Case Outcome – slight above-average MLB catcher

More Likely Outcome – average MLB catcher

10. Kirk Nieuwenhuis | CF | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2008 (C+)

Simply had a great 2009.  He is a big kid and the power he has been showing is for real. Has enough speed to stick at center, but his arm is a little weak and that is the only thing I could see moving him to a corner spot.  So far the jump to AA went amazing and it will be nice to see if he can continue it.  Needs to cut down on K’s.

Best Case Outcome – Above-average center fielder in the mold of Aaron Rowand.

More Likely Outcome – Solid MLB center fielder.

I updated the Top 20 prospect list today which you can check out by clicking here. Here are some changes to the list.

Moved up:

• Brad Holt moved up to 3 (from 4)
• Jenrry Mejia moved up to 5 (from 8)
• Ike Davis moved up to 6 (from 10)
• Ruben Tejada moved to 10 (from 18)
• Brant Rustich moved up to 16 (from 17)

Moved Down:

• Jon Niese moved down to 4 (From 3)
• Reese Havens moved down to 7 (from 5)
• Jefry Marte moved down to 8 (from 6)
• Cesar Puello moved down to 17 (from 14)
• Eddie Kunz moved down to 18 (from 13)
• Eric Beaulac moved down to 20 (from 19)

Added to list:

• Josh Thole(8), Jeurys Familia(12), Jordany Valdespin(13), Robert Carson(14), and Sean Ratliff(19)

Removed from list:

• Nick Evans (decided to remove him because he is no longer rookie eligible) and Kyle Allen