Archive for Top Prospect List
Top 50 Prospects for 2012
Posted by: | CommentsTo understand the grades read this post.
1. Matt Harvey | RHP | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 1st Round 2010 (8.0 B) – I was very bearish on him at the time of the draft and Harvey has managed to quickly turn me into a believer. His stuff has always been undeniable, but his command is much, much better than I anticipated which changed my tune. He gets the edge over Wheeler because of closeness to breaking in and his workhorse body.
2. Zack Wheeler | RHP | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 1st Round 2009 (SFG) (8.5 C) – The switch back to his high school mechanics is looking like a brilliant one right now with the big improvement he showed in command. Just a tick under Harvey, but the two are interchangeable depending on whom you ask.
3. Jeurys Familia | RHP | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (8.0 C) – I have always been one of Familia’s biggest fans. I ranked him 9th last year when most did not put him in the top 10 and I think he has a much better chance at sticking in the rotation than he gets credit for. I actually put a lot of stock into Wally Backman’s praise of him.
4. Brandon Nimmo | OF | Rk | Age – 18| Drafted – 1st Round 2011 (8.0 D) – I was a big proponent of going with Matt Barnes with this pick, but the Mets are top heavy with right-handed pitchers and lack serious upside with hitters, so this pick has grown on me. He is very far away, but the sky is the limit.
5. Jenrry Mejia | RHP | AAA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (7.5 C) – The injury is definitely a serious concern, especially when that has been a fear of most experts. His upside still gets him near the top of this list because based on what he showed at age 20 in the Big Leagues I feel comfortable he can at least be this team’s closer one day. Optimistic? Maybe.
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis | OF | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2008 (7.0 B) – In my opinion his defensive “liabilities” are overrated. He certainly has what it takes to play an adequate center field and I will get into more detail about that later. The only thing holding him back from being a definite regular right now is the strikeouts.
7. Cesar Puello | OF | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (7.5 C) – As excited as I am about the uptick in homeruns (especially in the FSL), I am equally disappointed with the dramatic drop-off in steals and the complete inability to take a walk considering his speed can be a problem on the basepaths. This year will be a very telling year for Puello.
8. Reese Havens | 2B | AA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (7.0 C) – I love Reese, but it is getting to a point where it is time to for him to put up or shut up. He is already 25-years-old and has yet to play 100 games in a professional season. He very well should be the Mets starting 2nd baseman this year (and probably would be if not for injuries) and the fact that he has not been able to stay healthy to secure that job bothers me.
9. Wilmer Flores | SS | HiA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (8.0 D) – Oh Wilmer. Such a tough one to grade/place. It is never a good sign when a player regresses while repeating a level. He doesn’t strike out a lot, but needs to show he can take a walk. Only real positive I guess is he has driven in over 80 runs the last two years. I consider that somewhat of a skill.
10. Michael Fulmer | RHP | GCL | Age – 18 | Drafted – 1st Supp. 2011 (7.5 C) – His ERA was pretty bloated okay, but I was more impressed with his striking out of two batters per inning in brief time. I maybe a little too optimistic about him.
11. Jordany Valdespin | 2B | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (7.0 C) – He has his problems like any prospects, however, if that power surge turns out to be for real then Valdespin becomes the Mets top 2nd base option over Havens.
12. Cory Mazzoni | RHP | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2011 (6.5 B) – Mazzoni was lights out in relief and displayed good command and stuff. I want to see how he performs in the rotation before he goes top 10, but things do look good here.
13. Darin Gorski | LHP | HiA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 4th Round 2009 (6.0 B) – When I went back to check, I was extremely surprised that I did not even have him in the top 50 last year because I did like him. Shows you what kind of season he had to go from unranked to the top lefty in the system.
14. Phillip Evans | SS | SSA | Age – 19 | Drafted – 15th Round 2011 (7.5 C) – I liked him enough that I was going to take him with my last pick in my Mets shadow draft, but instead went with Nathan Melendres because I didn’t think he would sign. Lucky for me the Mets took him and convinced him to sign so now I look like a genius!
15. Cory Vaughn | OF | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 4th Round 2010 (7.0 C) – Because he was so good for Brooklyn in 2010, he gets a slight pass on 2011 due to the reports he played through a heel injury. He still did enough things well and has a high enough potential for me to discredit with an injury plagued season.
16. Juan Lagares | OF | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (6.5 C) – I still have absolutely no clue what I want to make of his stellar 2011 performance, but I am leaning more towards fluke than breakout which prevents me from putting him any higher.
17. Akeel Morris | RHP | Rk | Age – 22 | Drafted – 10th Round 2010 (8.0 D) – This is one of those he is “only ranked 17th”, but if you look at the rating I gave his potential it shows how much I think of him. His talent is right there with anyone on this list he just needs to find his control.
18. Collin McHugh | RHP | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 18th Round 2008 (6.0 B) – He is one of those guys that is tough to root against, so I couldn’t be happier that things finally started going his way last year. Doesn’t have the upside of others, but I think he might have a little bit of Dillon Gee in him.
19. Danny Muno | SS | SSA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 8th Round 2011 (6.0 B) – Was just a joy to watch play in Brooklyn. Plays the game the right way and has the look of a ballplayer out there. That is one of the only words to describe him—ballplayer. Fun fact: One of the only players to say, “What’s up” to me after the game in the hallways all season.
20. Domingo Tapia | RHP | SSA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2009 (8.0 D) – It is wild how few guys he is able to strikeout with his fastball, but he seems to have pretty good command for a young guy who can hit triple digits. Love the groundballs. Sky is the limit for him.
21. Chris Schwinden | RHP | MLB | Age – 25 | Drafted – 22nd Round 2008 (5.5 B) – I’ve liked him quiet a bit since the first time I watched him in Brooklyn and reaching the big leagues as a 22nd round pick already makes him a success
22. Matt Den Dekker | OF | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 5th Round 2010 (6.5 C) – Den Dekker showed a considerable more amount of pop than I thought he was capable of. The negative side is Double-A pitchers were able to exploit a hole in his swing that resulted in a worrisome strikeout rate. His defense is still his calling card.
23. Albert Cordero | C | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (7.0 C) – *SLEEPER ALERT* It is kind of strange that I dropped his in the rankings from last year and still placed the “sleeper” tag on him, but I think that is more a product of the rest of the system. He hit for a better average and more power the season went on. He just needs to start walking to become a complete player.
24. Aderlin Rodriguez | 3B | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (7.5 D) – The power was sensational. Unfortunately his defense and plate discipline are equally as unimpressive. This ranking might be a little harsh, but 78 errors in 210 games in horrific.
25. Darrell Cecilliani | OF | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 4th Round 2009 (6.5 C) – Plain and simple he needs to start showing a little more offense if he wants to project as anything more than a 4th outfielder.
26. Juan Urbina | LHP | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2009 (7.5 D) – I am actually slowing beginning to gain faith in Urbina. He is extremely young, projectable, and scouts love him I just want to see at least some respectable results first.
27. Logan Verrett | RHP | DNP | Age – 21 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2011 (6.5 C) – The reports all sound good and point to him being a solid yet unspectacular starter, I just want to see some data first.
28. Armando Rodriguez | RHP | HiA | Age – 24 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (6.0 C) – His stock had dropped after an injury-laden season, but he still had some pretty decent results. He still kept the hits down and strikeouts at a batter per inning pace, but the true test comes in Double-A this year.
29. Josh Edgin | LHP | HiA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 30th Round 2010 (5.5 B) – I love what he has done since being drafted. His upside is only a setup man and that might still be a stretch, but as Pedro Feliciano has shown, a good LOOGY has a ton of value.
30. Jack Leathersich | LHP | SSA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 5th Round 2011 (6.0 C) – Most people have Leathersich above Edgin, but that is because of what it called the shiny new toy syndrome. His upside is higher than Edgin, but the one who is closer to the majors gets the edge for me.
31. Jefry Marte | 3B | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2011 (7.0 D) – His Arizona Fall League performance was outstanding, but that was just 22 games and he underperformed over 131 games with St. Lucie. Like with Aderlin Rodriguez, I might be ranking him a bit too harshly, but I expected a lot more out of him by this point.
32. Zach Lutz | 3B | AAA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 5th Round 2007 (6.5 D) – His power makes him an interesting option and I hope the Mets at least give him a look in Spring Training, he just needs to stay on the field for more than half a season.
33. Josh Satin | 1B/3B | MLB | Age – 27 | Drafted – 6th Round 2008 (5.0 B) – I was driving the Satin bandwagon as hard as anyone and couldn’t be happier he at least got a cup of coffee. I still see him as a useful utility player.
34. Rafael Montero | RHP | SSA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2011 (7.0 D) – *SLEEPER ALERT* I really like this kid. He came out of nowhere and really impressed on a scouting and statistical basis.
35. Bradley Marquez | SS/CF | DNP | Age – 19 | Drafted – 16th Round 2011 (7.5 D) – I can’t wait to see how he performs. Could turn into one of the Mets top prospects and can also completely flop on his face.
36. Greg Peavey | RHP | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 6th Round 2010 (6.5 C) – A personal favorite of mine, but he definitely disappointed in his first season. He was outstanding for Savannah, but his components really fell of during his first real test in St. Lucie.
37. Tyler Pill | RHP | SSA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 4th Round 2011 (6.0 C) – I think he compares very well to Greg Peavey in makeup and looked pretty good in brief action. Need to see at higher levels.
38. Gilbert Gomez | OF | HiA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (7.0 D) – He definitely has the tools to back up his 22 game performance in St. Lucie, BUT it was just 22 games and the rest of his track record makes it seem like a fluke.
39. Chase Huchingson | LHP | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – Undrafted 2010 (6.5 C) – I like his potential a little better than most and hope he gets a full season to start this year.
40. Taylor Whitenton | RHP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 39th Round 2009 (6.0 C) – He was terrific in 2011, HOWEVER, he was repeating the league and was on the older sign of players in the league. 2012 is an important year for him.
41. Erik Goeddel | RHP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 24th Round 2010 (7.0 D) – Things are going very similar with him to how they were with another Golden Bears’ Mets prospect *cough*Brant Rustich*cough*. He is very successful when healthy, but injuries have been a recurring theme for him going back to college.
42. Travis Taijeron | OF | SSA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 18th Round 2011 (6.5 D) – A super cool name and high power potential. Plate discipline will be his make or break point.
43. Juan Carlos Gamboa | SS | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2010 (5.5 C) – The diminutive shortstop has put up pretty damn good stats over the last two years and showed quiet a considerable amount of pop. His defense seems a little weak and he has a big load in his swing so I want to see how those two things affect his stats over a full season.
44. Camden Maron | C | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 34th Round 2009 (5.5 C) – Is he “only” the next Josh Thole or does he take the next step forward and show us a little extra?
45. Angel Cuan | LHP | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (5.5 C) – He had excellent stats and his command is superb, but I have some fears he can go down the Yusmeiro Petit route.
46. Luis Mateo | RHP | DSL | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2010 (7.0 D) – I really, really, really want to put Mateo higher, but I just can’t put a DSL player too much higher than this. His numbers were sensational even for being old for the league (a 1.15 FIP is ridiculous).
47. Joe Tuschak | OF | GCL | Age – 19 | Drafted – 6th Round 2011 (6.5 D) – His stats weren’t phenomenal, but he has the tools and cold weather players sometimes take a little bit longer to develop.
48. Robert Carson | LHP | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 14th Round 2007 (5.5 C) – His control has not gotten any better and as he has gone up the levels he has been hit harder. Losing all faith in him.
49. Brad Holt | RHP | AA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (5.0 C) – He is here almost solely on pedigree and with the tiniest sliver of hope he is able to turn things around.
50. Robbie Shields | 2B | HiA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2009 (5.0 C) – I am just a fan of his so I decided to give him the last spot. Statistically speaking he really wasn’t that bad. However, he is getting older and will need to make advances fast.
2011 Top 50 Prospects: Prospects #41-50
Posted by: | CommentsAll grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels
| 41 | ||||
| • Highest Level: AAA • Team: Buffalo Bisons • B: R | HT: 6-4 | WT: 210 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | K:BB |
| SP | 23 | 11-5 | 3.90 | 89:58 |
Am I a little low on Stinson in these rankings? Maybe. It is only because I am not that confident in his ability to remain in the rotation. While his ERA and K numbers look much better in AAA than in AA his FIP actually increased in Buffalo (4.94) compared to Binghamton (4.49). If he makes it as a starter he is a number five at best, which is not bad, still he could be a very good reliever.
| 42 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 230 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | .AVG | HR | RBI |
| C | 21 | .290 | 0 | 9 |
I’m still not a huge fan of Pena’s, but he is still young and has potential so he gets a mulligan and remains in the top 50 prospects. Missed almost all of 2010 because of injuries. He spent a lot of time in extended spring training and did perform fairly well during the limited action he did see. If he doesn’t show significant progress this year I’ll have no problem leaving him off the list.
| 43 | ||||
| • Highest Level: AAA • Team: Buffalo Bisons • B: R | HT: 5-11 | WT: 215 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | SV | ERA | K:BB |
| RP | 25 | 17 | 2.17 | 12:84 |
Alvarez is a terrific reliever who should be ready to contribute as soon as this year. Really showed no holes in his game and pitched well at every level now it just remains to be seen if he can duplicate his success.
| 44 | ||||
| • Highest Level: – • Team: – • B: R | HT: 6-1 | WT: 200 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | K:BB |
| SP | 22 | – | – | – |
SLEEPER ALERT. Peavey is the complete package as a pitcher. He is not an overpowering player with filthy stuff, but he is able to use his 90-93 mph fastball effectively and mix in a slider, change-up, and curve ball. His excellent mechanics and maturity as a pitcher and person give me bright hopes for him. Could make big moves in 2011.
| 45 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: L | HT: 5-10 | WT: 180 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | K:BB |
| SP | 23 | 11-5 | 2.19 | 38:124 |
A stat geeks favorite and a scout’s worst nightmare. Fuller has decent stuff, but his less than ideal pitcher’s build and no plus pitches make scouts wonder if he will ever be able to live at the higher levels and be able to withstand the rigors of a full season. Should make a good future LOOGY.
| 46 | ||||
| • Highest Level: SSA • Team: Brooklyn Cyclones • B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 220 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| C | 21 | .234 | 3 | 8 |
Highly regarded before the 2010 season until scouts found major holes in his swing. The Mets took him in the 3rd round based off great numbers during his sophomore season where he was very close to Yasmani Grandal for being the best catcher in the class. Early numbers show the holes may be too big to overcome, but the potential of being a power hitting catcher is still there.
| 47 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 6-11 | WT: 235 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | K:BB |
| SP | 22 | 3-7 | 5.56 | 55:90 |
Only because of his injury issues and being a ridiculously tall pitcher do I cut him some slack as taller pitches tend to take longer to develop because of the inconsistent mechanics. Another one who needs to take a big leap this year or will find himself on the outside looking in.
| 48 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 6-1 | WT: 195 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | K:BB |
| RP | 24 | 2-2 | 4.70 | 23:36 |
The command issues are a shame because he is such a great arm. It seems like he has been around forever despite the fact he is still 24-years-old, but at this stage in his development I am beginning to wonder if he will ever iron out the control issues.
| 49 | ||||
| • Highest Level: Rk • Team: Kingsport Mets • B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 190 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | K:BB |
| SP | 22 | 2-2 | 5.94 | 13:42 |
A personal favorite from the 2010 draft. I think he is much better than the results show as the numbers are a bit skewed by a rought two start streak. Has good enough stuff to make a little bit of noise. You just never know with the small school pitchers and this one sticks out to me.
| 50 | ||||
| • Highest Level: Rk • Team: DSL Mets2 • B: R | HT: 6-3 | WT: 170 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | K:BB |
| SP | 20 | 1-1 | 2.05 | 15:28 |
Going completely off the board for Mr. Irrelevant. I would almost never rank a DSL guy, but Javier has a great combination of strikeouts, ground balls, and perfectibility. He could amount to nothing, but something tells me I needed to get his name out there.
2011 Top 50 Prospects: Prospects 31-40
Posted by: | CommentsAll grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels
| 31 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 5-10 | WT: 160 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| SS | 19 | .266 | 0 | 29 |
Tovar’s best tool can not be seen or measured by these numbers as his defense is off the charts. He has received rave reviews from everyone that has seen him play the field making circus plays look routine. He has gold glove potential defense, but his biggest question marks will always be his size (5’10 160 is a generous listing) and bat.
| 32 | ||||
| • Highest Level: AA • Team: Binghamton Mets • B: L | HT: 6-3 | WT: 220 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | SO |
| LHP | 22 | 8-11 | 5.67 | 99 |
This is a situation where if the prospect fails I am putting it on the Mets’ shoulders. Carson was doing okay, but not dominating in St. Lucie so they move him up to AA where he gets bombed. Carson still has the stuff to succeed, but did terrible in the “AA test” so a move to the pen might be in store.
| 33 | ||||
| • Highest Level: Rk • Team: Kingsport Mets • B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 165 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| OF | 21 | .319 | 4 | 24 |
While Rodriguez is a little old for Kingsport he finally began to put his tools together last year. I am always a little weary of the power numbers prospects put up in Kingsport, but I am trying to stay positive of the former second round pick. Next year will decide if he is a real prospect or not.
| 34 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 6-3 | WT: 195 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | SO |
| RHP | 21 | .6-8 | 5.24 | 53 |
I was high on Allen entering 2010, but he was just awful for St. Lucie. He walked more (54) than he struckout (53) and did not get nearly as many groundballs as he had in the past. He gets the benefit of the doubt because he was pitching with a back injury, but I am not too excited about his potential anymore.
| 35 | ||||
| • Highest Level: HiA • Team: St. Lucie Mets • B: R | HT: 6-1 | WT: 215 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| C | 24 | .291 | 4 | 43 |
The older German product started coming around with the bat in 2010. He is already an average to above average defensive catcher and if he can sustain the new offensive production he could develop into a major league back up catcher.
| 36 | ||||
| • Highest Level: AA • Team: Binghamton Mets • B: R | HT: 6-3 | WT: 220 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| 3B | 24 | .306 | 10 | 51 |
Campbell has very quietly turned into a nice bat for the organization. He plays adequate defense at third and has a good approach at the plate that held up in the jump to AA.
| 37 | ||||
| • Highest Level: Rk • Team: GCL Mets • B: R | HT: 6-4 | WT: 186 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | SO |
| RHP | 19 | 4-4 | 3.38 | 34 |
The results were okay on the surface, but not spectacular. He is going to need to up the strikeouts and the stuff suggests he will do it in the future with already a low 90′s fastball and flashes of plus change-up. The projection is there for him to become a legitimate prospect only time will tell.
| 38 | ||||
| • Highest Level: Rk • Team: GCL Mets • B: L | HT: 6-1 | WT: 180 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | W-L | ERA | SO |
| LHP | 20 | 0-1 | 3.31 | 18 |
One of the few Mets overslots in recent years actually pitched well during his brief time flashing good K rates and keeping the balls on the ground, but was suspended for PED’s. Will need to move quickly when he returns.
| 39 | ||||
| • Highest Level: – • Team: – • B: R | HT: 6-2 | WT: 195 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| 3B | 16 | – | – | – |
One of the big international free agents in 2010 for the Mets. Sanchez is a big third baseman with plus to plus-plus raw power, but hwo might need to move to first base. He was the 15th best Latin American prospect.
| 40 | ||||
| • Highest Level: – • Team: – • B: R | HT: 5-11 | WT: 180 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POS | AGE | AVG | HR | RBI |
| OF | 16 | – | – | – |
The other main attraction from the IFA class. Lupo was the 25th best ranked prospect form Latin America and is also considered to have plus to plus-plus raw power.
2011 Top 50 Prospects: Prospects 21-30
Posted by: | CommentsAll grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels
21. Akeel Morris | SP | GCL | Age – 18 | Drafted – 10th Round 2010 (C+)
Part of me wanted to get him into the top 20, but I guess I’ll save that for next year. Extremely young prospect with a big arm showed he had a little more polish than what cost him to last until the 10th round. Probably the prospect most poised for a “breakout” season.
Best Case Outcome – (Too early) #2 Starter
Most Likely Outcome – Relief arm/Career minor leaguer
22. Brad Holt | SP | HiA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (C+)
His season was just disgustingly awful. No command of his pitches is costing him dearly and how does a player regress when getting demoted to go play in a less talented league and in our better pitcher’s park? Stuff and pedigree is the only thing keeping him up here.
Best Case Outcome – #5 starter
Most Likely Outcome – Relief arm/Career minor leaguer
23. Jefry Marte | 3B | LoA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)
He’s still young, but at some point he is going to have to start hitting again like he did back in ’08 in the GCL. There just hasn’t been much power or average and he doesn’t play great defense to make up for that.
Best Case Outcome – Starting 3rd baseman
Most Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer
24. Steven Matz | SP | DNP | Age – 19 | Drafted 2nd Round 2009 (C+)
Didn’t pitch last year because of Tommy John Surgery. I still like his stuff and potential as I am not as worried about young pitchers having TJS anymore.
Best Case Outcome – #3 starter
Most Likely Outcome – #4 starter/reliever
*No Stats*
25. Brian Harrison | 3B | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 13th Round 2010 (C)
My favorite draft pick from the 2010 class after the initial round guys. If he can stay healthy he has a chance to sky rocket up this list. A great hitter with good power. Remember this name and don’t sleep on him.
Best Case Outcome – Starting 3rd baseman
Most Likely Outcome – Bench player
26. Josh Satin | 2B/1B | AA | Age – 26 | Drafted – 6th Round 2008 (C)
Has done nothing but hit since being drafted his only downfall is his age. I’ve liked him since seeing him in Brooklyn and think he can become a useful MLB player.
Best Case Outcome – Starter on bad team
Most Likely Outcome – Bench player
27. Erik Goeddel | P | GCL | Age – 22 | Drafted – 24th R0und 2010 (C)
Another late round pick who can really move up in the prospect world if he can remain healthy. Big time fastball and slider, but has some arm troubles and had to be shut down last year after just 1 inning because of soreness.
Best Case Outcome – #3 starter/closer
Most Likely Outcome – Set up man
28. Jordany Valdespin | 2B | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C)
Stuck behind some players on the depth chart, but the Mets liked him enough to add him to the 40 man roster and keep him safe from the Rule V draft and avoid another Jesus Flores incident. Still a bit of an enigma, but he has talent with this being a crucial season for him.
Best Case Outcome – Bench player
Most Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer
29. Ryan Fraser | CL | SSA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 16th Round 2010 (C)
Big armed reliever whose didn’t fare that well in college. Things changed with the switch to wood bats and he dominated the NYPL with his fastball. Looked real good in person. Like his stuff a lot.
Best Case Outcome – Set up man
Most Likely Outcome – middle reliever
30. Robbie Shields | SS | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2009 (C)
Hit very well coming off TJS. Will need to push through the system pretty quickly at his age, but he has the potential to do so. His minor problem is the chances of him sticking at short dropped dramatically with his TJS. Position will be important for his bat.
Best Case Outcome – Bench player
Most Likely Outcome – Career minor leaguer
2011 Top 50 Prospects: Prospects 11-20
Posted by: | CommentsAll grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels
11. Lucas Duda | OF | AAA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 7th Round 2007 (C+)
Duda burst onto the scene in 2010 with some huge power numbers. This are the numbers that made him a top prospect out of high school, but he had never put it together in college or in the minors till this point. His bat looks like it will play anywhere, but it is just a matter of where it will wind up.
Best Case Outcome – All bat slugger
Most Likely Outcome – Platoon hitter
12. Armando Rodriguez | SP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)
Possibly the most overlooked prospect in the whole system. If you look at his numbers there is almost nothing you can complain about. The only thing holding him back from higher rankings anywhere is an average fastball and fringe average breaking ball.
Best Case Outcome – #3/4 starter
More Likely Outcome – Middle reliever
13. Zach Lutz | 3B | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 5th Round 2007 (C+)
Similar to Reese Havens health has been the only thing holding him back. He can absolutely mash when he is on the field, but various different injuries have prevented that from happening. Not a terrible fielder still his bat will always carry him.
Best Case Outcome – Everyday Hitter
Most Likely Outcome – Role Player/Bench Bat
14. Juan Urbina | SP | GCL | Age – 17 | Drafted – IFA 2009 (C+)
I am not as big on Urbina as some other people. He does have some intriguing upside with a decent fastball and good change up, but I need to see some more positive results before I go any higher. I love the control for a young pitcher.
Best Case Outcome – #2/3 starter
Most Likely Outcome – Too early to tell. Anything from #3/4 starter to career minor leaguer
15. Sean Ratliff | OF | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 4th Round 2008 (C+)
Ratliff had a really big, breakout season in 2010. His numbers only got better after being moved out of the tough environment in St. Lucie and up to AA. His BABIP was high, but it has been high throughout his whole career. If he could ever get his strikeouts under control he can become a force.
Best Case Outcome – Starting Outfielder
Most Likely Outcome – Platoon Fielder
16. Darrell Ceciliani | OF | SSA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 4th Round 2009 (C+)
A great fielder and speedster, had a great season swinging the lumber in Brooklyn. The 12 triples just show you what kind of speed he poses, but he is still a little raw on the basepaths. Not much to complain about so far.
Best Case Outcome – Good leadoff hitter and fielder
Most Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder
17. Mark Cohoon | SP | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 12th Round 2008 (C+)
Cohoon completely changed my opinion on him as I was a huge hater. Dominance is an understatement for his efforts in the Sally and after a few terrible starts in AA he really settled down and was great again. If only he had a big time fastball he would be a huge prospect, but until he makes it in the pros he will always have some doubters.
Best Case Outcome – #3/4 Starter
Most Likely Outcome – #5 Starter/Loogy
18. Albert Cordeo | C | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)
Good athletic defensive catcher who has shown some pop. Has some high upside if the bat continues to develop along. I like him a lot. Huge sleeper potential in 2011.
Best Case Outcome - Starting Catcher
Most Likely Outcome – Bench player
19. Dillon Gee | SP | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 21st Round 2007 (C+)
Pitched much better in AAA than his ERA says. Great peripherals and an inflated BABIP were his killers. On the flip side he didn’t pitch nearly as well in NY as his ERA. Should compete for the 5th starter spot in camp.
Best Case Outcome - #4/5 starter
Most Likely Outcome - #5 starter/middle relief
20. Matt Den Dekker | OF | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 5th Round 2010 (C+)
Had a great start to his career after signing. Stark splits as he kills righties and didn’t do to well against lefties. His defensive alone should help him find a way onto a big league roster at some point.
Best Case Outcome – Fringe starter/platoon partner
Most Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder
2011 Top 50 Prospects: Prospects 1-10
Posted by: | CommentsAll grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2011 Archive Page.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
-John Sickels
1. Jenrry Mejia | SP | AAA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (B+)
Mejia’s potential was obvious with his numbers in the minors as he was absolutely dominant in his 7 starts. This was just another case where Omar and Jerry screwed up by rushing a player to quick to the majors. Flashes of his plus stuff could be seen out of the bullpen, but he was extremely inconsistent which is expected from a player so young. He will benefit greatly from more time in the minors as Terry Collins has suggested he will get.
Best Case Outcome – Top of the rotation starter
More Likely Outcome – Good #3/Closer
2. Wilmer Flores | SS | HiA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (B+)
Flores has been nothing but spectacular since joining the Mets system. He has hit at every level the Mets have placed him at and done so with great plate discipline for a young player. About the only thing you could complain about at this point is his defense. His power seems to be developing as expected, but I would like to see some more homers this year.
Best Case Outcome – Run producing cleanup hitter
More Likely Outcome – Above average #5/6 hitter
3. Matt Harvey | SP | College | Age – 21 | Drafted – 1st Round 2010 (B)
Harvey has some big time power stuff on the mound with the workhouse body to boot. If his command can hold up he has the potential to be a big impact starter on the mound. That is a big “if”. His power sinker in Citi Field could be a great combination.
Best Case Outcome – #2 starter
Most Likely Outcome – Innings eating #3/4 starter
*No stats*
4. Aderlin Rodriguez | 3B | LoA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (B)
Rodriguez slugged his way all the way up this list in 2010. He made the Appy League pitching look silly hitting 13 home runs and 22 doubles for a .556 SLG%. It appears like the slow approach the Mets have decided to take with Rodriguez is paying off. About time they learned their lesson.
Best Case Outcome – All-Star slugging 3rd baseman
Most Likely Outcome – Above average power hitting 3rd baseman
5. Reese Havens | 2B | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (B)
This is a bit of an aggressive ranking for Havens, but I have no doubt in my mind had it not been for the injuries he would be ranked at the top of this list. During his time on the field his stats are just insane. Those numbers from a 2nd baseman are hard to come by.
Best Case Outcome – All-Star second baseman
Most Likely Outcome – League average second baseman
6. Fernando Martinez | OF | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – IFA 2005 (B-)
I am still a fan of Martinez although the continuing injuries and arthritis in his knee is a bit worrisome. He still has some potential, but in my opinion is never going to live up to the “Teenage Hitting Machine” nickname. If there was ever a time for him to have a big season it is now with Carlos Beltran’s contract ending this season and a spot opening up in the outfield.
Best Case Outcome – Above-average outfielder
Most Likely Outcome – League average outfielder
7. Cory Vaughn | OF | SSA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2010 (B-)
Although he slowed down as the season went on Vaughn had a huge debut for the Cyclones. He displayed better plate discipline than reported before the draft. His splits are pretty stark, but he isn’t awful against right hand pitching so I am not too worried about that yet.
Best Case Outcome – Very good all-around outfielder
Most Likely Outcome – Average outfielder with good defense
8. Cesar Puello | OF | SSA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (B-)
The young Puello began to put together his tremendous tools last season in Savannah. Given free reign on the base paths Puello showed his exceptional speed swiping 45 bags. The power was down from last year, but the improved discipline and speed made up for it. Still has a lot of room to breakout this year.
Best Case Outcome – Run creating speedster with great defense
Most Likely Outcome - Below average hitter with great defensive value
9. Jeurys Familia | SP | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)
I am overlooking his ERA somewhat because although it was ugly he had a much better FIP (3.89) and had great strikeout and ground ball numbers. Familia’s key to success will be controlling his 100 mph heat because walks were his killer all season. An inflated BABIP and questionably low LOB% keep me optimistic about his future.
Best Case Outcome – #2/3 starter/closer
Most Likely Outcome - #4/5 starter or middle reliever
10. Kirk Nieuwenhuis | OF | AAA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2008 (C+)
I was not a big fan when I first saw him, but Nieuwenhuis has slowly turned me into a believer. He has solid speed and power, but no outstanding tools. His defense is average and his key will always be if he can begin to handle the high and inside fastball.
Best Case Outcome – Average outfielder with some real good seasons (Aaron Rowand)
Most Likely Outcome - Bench or platoon outfielder
Working on Top 50 Prospects
Posted by: | CommentsI am currently working towards releasing my annual top 50 prospect list for the New York Mets. I am still a little unsure of how I plan on putting it out there, but I am leaning towards doing them in increments of 10 prospects at a time. This year I decided to go a little riskier with my list so there might be some rankings that you question, but that is the beauty of prospect rankings.
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