Why Wilson Ramos and Not Fernando Martinez?

June 29, 2010 By Leave a Comment

With all the Cliff Lee rumors swirling around all the baseball “experts” make it sound like the Twins can just have Lee if they wanted by offering a package centered around catching prospect Wilson Ramos.  Yet for the Mets they HAVE to include Jenrry Mejia because Fernando Martinez is not a strong enough centerpiece for a deal.  Now I fully understand why everyone would want Mejia to be the centerpiece of the deal, but I can not fathom why it is people feel Ramos is strong enough to be the main piece and Martinez is not.

I think if you just take a look at their stats it is pretty obvious that not only is Martinez worthy of being the main part of a deal like Ramos he is also a better prospect than Ramos.

So despite playing at a higher level and putting up stats that are equal or if not better than Ramos at a younger age has some how turned Martinez into a worse prospect than Ramos.  Not only that, but one of the biggest knocks on Martinez is that he has spent so much time in the minor leagues without being able to crack into the majors, but Ramos has been down on the farm even longer.It is also not like Ramos has been injury free throughout his minor league career spending time on the DL in 2008 and 2009.

Take a look at prospect guru John Sickels’ rankings of the two prospects over the last couple of years.

2010 – 4) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Power and defense are positives, main question is weak walk rate.
2009 – 3) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B: Good glove, strong bat.
2008 – Not ranked

2010 – 3) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: People are now too negative on him. The guy was the equivalent of a college sophomore last year. If a college sophomore got drafted and hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, people would be drooling over him. He’s made significant progress refining his tools. My main concern now is health and durability, which keeps him from ranking higher.
2009 – 2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with Flores if you prefer the guy closer to the majors.
2008 - 1) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+:.292/.332/.420 for Double-A Binghamton. Production improving, plate discipline still an issue, still very young.

It is also important to keep in mind that Sickels is a Twins fan so there is reason to believe he is sometimes a bit biased towards their prospects, as he should be, and yet Martinez has always been ranked higher and going into the year he actually agreed with me that F-Mart is taking unnecessary criticism.

Wilson Ramos was impressive during his brief stint in the majors early this year and he play a plus defense, but ever since going down to the minors he has been awful.  I think Ramos is a great prospect and worthy of being included in a deal for Lee, but so should the “Teenage Hitting Machine”.  Not to mention if the Mariners really want a closer Josh Thole is a pretty decent player who while he may not have the power or defense of Ramos hits for a higher average and has way better plate discipline.  A deal of Fernando Martinez/Josh Thole/2 more prospects probably Kyle Allen and someone or F-Mart/Reese Havens/and a pitching prospect should be enough to get a deal done for lee.  Any more than that and I would be a little upset with what the Mets traded.

Filed Under: Opinion Tagged With: ,

A Look at Possible Rotation Trade Candidates

June 22, 2010 By Leave a Comment

1. Cliff Lee – Lee is by far the best pitcher in the group and having a fantastic season.  He had a late start to his season because of an injury, but he is already 5-3 on a really bad team with a 2.55 ERA.  The most staggering thing about Lee’s season so far is his K/BB statistic.  Right now it sits 16.75.  The next person on the list is Roy Halladay with a 6.13.  Lee is on base to shatter the MLB record because frankly he just isn’t walking anyone.  He has walked just 4 batters all season, which is good for a .46 BB/9.  Lee is just doing everything you can ask of an ace pitcher.  Winning games, giving up no runs, no hits, walking no one, striking guys out, and pitching deep into games.  Right now he is averaging nearly 8 innings per start and already has 3 complete games in 10 starts.

The problem with Lee pitching so well is that it is going to cost a lot to get him.  The Mariners don’t have to Lee because they will get 2 draft picks when he leaves via free agency.  The one thing going for the Mets is that the Mariners were asking for bats in return so the Mets can still keep Jenrry Mejia.  With Fernando Martinez just coming back from his injury two weeks ago it was perfect timing for the M’s to get a good look at him.  The other main prospect being thrown around in talks is Wilson Ramos of the Twins.  The Mariners are in need of a catcher, but F-Mart is certain;y the better prospect and the Mariners outfield isn’t too great either so he could surely help them up.

I understand the Mets have been reluctant to trade F-Mart in the past, but if there was ever the perfect opportunity to trade him this would be it.  Martinez is highly unlikely to match Lee’s success in the majors and Lee is going to put the Mets over the top.  Going into a playoff race with a rotation of Cliff Lee-Mike Pelfrey-Johan Santana is just devastating and will dramatically increase the Mets’s chances of getting to the ship.

2. Fausto Carmona – I really like Carmona and actually traded for him last season in my dynasty league (I am the Mets in the league).  He reminds me a lot of Big Pelf.  Both of them rely heavily on their sinkers that have similar velocity and get similar horizontal and vertical movement, each of them complements their fastball with a nice slider, and change up.  The only difference is Pelf’s change up is now a split-fingered fastball while Carmona uses a more traditional change.  It is interesting to note when Carmona had his best season in 2007 was the last time he threw a splitter regularly so it would be interesting if the Mets acquire him if they have him go back to throwing the split.

The problem with Carmona is that he is signed cheaply for a couple years so he is going to cost a pretty penny.  I am not sure what the Indians would be looking for in return, but if it Jenrry Mejia I would balk at their asking price.  This is a case where I would consider trading Fernando Martinez, but I would never be able to sell myself 100% on the idea.

3. Jeremy Guthrie - Guthrie is a very sticky situation.  He is a solid middle rotation who will be under control until 2012, but the O’s are going to be looking for a return on a #2 type of pitcher.  I like Guthrie and like Carmona traded for him in my dynasty league.  His stuff is likely to play better in the National League and Citi Field where his fly balls aren’t going to carry out as much as they do at Camden.  If he can be had for a reasonable price without having to give up any top notch prospects I am all for, but something tells me the O’s are going to want someone like Wilmer Flores for him and I just don’t think it would be smart for the Mets to do something like that.

4. Ben Sheets – I have always been a huge Ben Sheets fan and when the A’s signed him in the off season you know the only thing Billy Beane had in mind was to have Sheets show he was healthy so he could trade him for a couple of prospects.  Sheets is having an okay season.  He is 2-7 with a 4.95 ERA, but almost all his other numbers are on par with his career numbers.  He is actually getting more ground balls than usual, the problem has been his control.  He is walking way more batters than usual all the way up to a 3.81 BB/9 compared to his career average of 2.08.  Part of the reason for the high ERA is the amount of home runs he has given up.  His HR/FB percentage is all the way up to 12% since moving to the AL in Oakland compared to 7.7% over his last 3 years.  I think a moved back to the NL could certainly help his numbers and like with Guthrie playing in Citi Field would definitely help his home run rate.  I would really like if the Mets got Sheets because when he is on he is one of the best pitchers in the game and would certainly cost less than someone like Lee.

Filed Under: New York Mets, Opinion, Rumors

Did We Make a Good Deal?: August 30th, 2000 Mets Acquire Jorge Velandia

May 24, 2010 By Leave a Comment

The Deal:

The Why:  At this time the Mets were in a deadlock for first place in the NL East with the Atlanta Braves and first in the wild card standings looking for a little extra help.  While the A’s themselves were also in the playoff hunt they had no need for the 25-year-old utility infielder who was batting .125 in 18 games that season.  Nelson Cruz was having a breakout season in the DSL hitting .351 with 15 homeruns and 17 steals as a 20-year-old.

Who did it help the most?:  No one. Jorge Velandia had 0 hits and scored 1 run on 2 BB’s during the rest of the regular season for the Mets.  He did not make the playoff roster and did nothing to help the Mets who would win up losing to the New York Yankees in the World Series that year.  Nelson Cruz had some great seasons for the A’s minor league system before being traded to the Brewers for Keith Ginter.  Had the A’s held on to Cruz it would have helped them much more, but since Velandia did absolutely nothing for the Mets it’s even.

Did we make a good deal?:  Bad deal. Nelson Cruz has gone on to become a slugging All-Star outfielder for the Texas Rangers and Velandia is now sitting on his couch watching ball games at home.  There was nothing wrong with trading Cruz at that time because he was old for the DSL and no one could have predicted such a late breakout from him.  The thing that irks me about this deal is that it was pointless as there was no need for the Mets to acquire Velandia for anything more than cash considerations.

Filed Under: Did We Make a Good Deal?

What Has Been the Reason for Mike Pelfrey’s Turn Around?

April 24, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Mike Pelfrey is off to a blazing start to the 2010 Major League Baseball season.  He is 3-0 with a save and a 0.86 ERA in 4 games (3 starts) so far and has yet to give up a home run.  Every game Pelfrey has pitched in this season the Mets have earned a victory.  This is pretty shocking since Pelfrey is coming off a year in 2009 where he was 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA.  So what has been the cause for the sudden success for the big guy you may ask yourself.

Pelfrey was a good candidate to bounce back for a couple of reasons.  He was one of the most unlucky pitchers in 2009 with a 0.64 difference between his ERA and FIP.  More specifically he was the 5th unluckiest pitcher in the MLB.  He was also victimized by his defense last year thanks with the Mets running Gary Sheffield, Luis Castillo, and Dan Murphy out there everyday, who were all below average fielders leading to his gaudy .321 BABIP (14th highest in MLB).  Being luckier this season isn’t all that has caused his turn around.  He has made a couple subtle changes that have resulted in early season success.

For starters he is doing the most important thing a pitcher can do by throwing more strikes and missing more bats.  As the cliché in baseball goes “The most important pitch in baseball is strike one.” This season Big Pelf is throwing a first pitch strike 65.8% of the time, good for 9th in the league, opposed to just 58.1% last year.  If you look at some of the pitchers ahead of him you will see pitchers whom are all great: Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Josh Beckett, Jorge de la Rosa, etc.  Sometimes there are clichés like this for a reason. They just work!  Once you establish strike one you can do whatever you want with the sequence of pitches.  He has also increased his K/9 by 1.64 and his swinging strike% by 0.5 (a lot more significant than it looks like).  This shows that he is commanding his pitches much better making it difficult for hitters to square up on the ball.

Another major change that has made a big impact is his new split-fingered fastball.  The new pitch has done two things for Big Pelf: (1)Given him another plus off-speed pitch for his repertoire. (2)By giving him another effective off-speed pitch it has made his fastball a lot more effective.  Last year his fastball was hit hard and one of the worst pitches in baseball and now it has a 4.4 wFB, 7th in MLB.  His split-fingered fastball is 2nd with a 2.1 wSF and 1st with a 14.24 wSF/C (the /C just denotes the stat per 100 pitches).  All of spring training the talk was about how good this pitch was and it looks as if the talk was well warranted.  The addition has made Big Pelf look like a completely different, more confident, pitcher than last season.

On the flip side we don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves because Pelfrey is bound for some regression. No one, and I don’t care if it is Cy Young, is going to be able to maintain such a low ERA for a full season.   He has a great FIP, 2.78, and a great xFIP, 3.87, but has been extremely fortunate with a .231 BABIP.  I still see no reason why if he continues to pitch the way he is and his BABIP balances out that he can’t finish the season with a low 3 ERA.

With all this talk about his gaudy ERA and win success the most important thing Pelf has done for the Mets this season, in my opinion, is turn into the workhorse of the rotation.  In a rotation where it seems you are lucky to get 6 innings out of your starter, Pelfrey has reached the 6th inning in all of his starts, reached the 7th inning twice, and was even able to come in during the 20 inning game and secure the victory.  Has Mike Pelfrey finally reached the hype he had when the Mets drafted him 9th overall in 2005? Mets fans can only hope.

Filed Under: Opinion

Did We Make a Good Deal?: July 31st, 2002 Mets Acquire John Thomson

July 21, 2009 By Leave a Comment

The Deal:

Mets get RHP John Thomson, Colorado
OF Mark Little, Colorado
Rockies get OF Jay Payton, New York (NL)
RHP Mark Corey, New York (NL)
OF Robert Stratton, Norfolk (AAA)

The Why:  Well even though the Mets final record of 75-86 is not pretty at the time the made the deal for Thomson they were 4 games over .500 at 55-51 and inline to make a run at the wild card, with the Braves running with the East.  The Colorado Rockies on the other hand were a young, struggling team who was willing to take a chance on Jay Payton to fulfill his hype coming out of college that the Mets had given up on.  At the time of the deal Baseball America considerd John Thomson “the best player who changed teams” at the 2002 deadline.

Who did it help the most?: Well let’s see Thomson wound up going 2-6 with a 4.31 ERA with the Mets and the Mets going 2-7 overall in Thomson starts with the Mets absolutely collapsin and falling out of playoff contention before he left via free agency in the off-season.  Jay Payton on the other hand batted.335 for the rest of the year and doubled his homeruns in half the games finishing the year with 16. Mark Little lasted 3 AB’s with the Mets before being traded for P.J. Bevis who never made it past AAA Norfolk. Mark Corey was terrible  for Colorado and Robert Stratton never made the majors and was forever a minor league slugger, but the deal still helped Colorado the most with the 2002 and amazing 2003 Payton put together.

Did we make a good deal?: Bad deal. Although Payton couldn’t sustain the success he had with the Rockies in ’02 and ’03 he still managed to hit 119 homeruns and drive in 521 runs while Thomson put up terrible numbers with the Mets and put up poor numbers for his career outside of one solid year for the Braves in 2004.

Filed Under: Did We Make a Good Deal?

Did We Make a Good Deal?: July 27th, 2001 Mets Trade Turk Wendell

July 16, 2009 By Leave a Comment

The Deal:

Phillies get RHP Turk Wendell, Mets
LHP Dennis Cook, Mets
Mets get LHP Bruce Chen, Scranton (AAA)
LHP Adam Walker, Reading (AA)

The Why: At the time of the deal the Mets were 9 games under .500, well behind the Phillies and Braves despite finishing only 6 games out, and were looking to shed some salary and Bruce Chenn had been a top prospect and putting up good numbers for the Phills in his first full season. The Phillies were battling it out with the Braves and needed some bullpen help so they aquired an above-average set-up man.

Who did it help the most?:  The simple answer is no one.  Turk Wendell went on to post an 0-2 record with a 7.47 ERA for the Phillies down the stretch in 2001, missed all of 2002 with an elbow injury, but did have a solid year in 2003 before leaving for the Rockies in free agency and Dennis Cook went 0-0 5.59 in 2001 then leaving for the Angels.  Burce Chen only wound up playing 60.1 going 3-2 with a 4.62 ERA as a New York Met before making his 4th stop in the NL East going to the Expos, while Adam Walker never cracked a big league roster and toured the Mets minor league system.

Did we make a good deal?: Mute deal. Neither team lost anything special and no one gained anything special.  I liked Turk Wendell, but he wasn’t going to help a terrible Met team and Chen was worth the gamble.  The deal made sense for both teams, but worked out for neither.

Filed Under: Did We Make a Good Deal?
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