As Keith Hernandez loves to say, “Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”

In the young season the Mets have managed to take a season of hope with so many changes in the off-season and a great 3-1 start into a season of early heartbreak.  The Mets have taken two aspects of a baseball that usually generate a wining formula and turned them into a stlyish way to lose and torment the Shea Citi Faithful.

Over the course of the first 13 games that saw the Mets go 4-9, they have done two things well as a team: (1)Score runs early in the early innings of games and (2)Make late inning comebacks.  One would assume a team who could do these things on a consistent basis would be on their way to a winning season — but not the Mets.

Out of the 13 games the Mets have put the first run on the board in 9 of those games, but would go on to lose 5 of those games.  There are two major reasons for the Mets failures to capitalize on these opportunities to close out leads.

The first reason has noticeably been the pitching staff.  The issues go deeper than just the bullpens inability to not give up runs.  In a mind blowing stat Mets pitchers have given up a run in the half inning following a Mets run a resounding 43% of the time.  That is the easiest way to kill any momentum the team just gained.

The other issue is the team has also failed to tack on to their leads.  Even in a game like the one against Cole Hamels and the Phillies they were able to put 6 runs up quickly, but were only able to add on 1 run for the rest of the game.  The Mets know as well as anyone a 6 run lead in the ballpark is not safe even though things worked out that time.  The offense is going to need to realize the pitching is too shaky to think any lead is safe and need to pour the runs on throughout the whole game.

I never even got to mention their continued troubles with bringing home the man on 3rd with less than two outs, especially in the first inning with the rate Jose Reyes has been going on so far.

Manager Terry Collins said it best.  The Mets had been just one pitch or one hit away from being a 9-2 team rather than the 4-7 one they stood at before being swept in the double header.  He hit the nail on the head recognizing his team could not find a way to come through in that clutch moment.  His players did not respond the way one would hope after being called out by losing yet another close game….

David Wright‘s at-bat with Matt Lidstrom in that next game against the Colorado Rockies could sum up the Mets’ whole season up until this point and continue that theme of missing their one moment.  Falling just one run, one ball, one base, one foot (give or take) short away from getting the win.  The whole feel of the team right now seems negative and the Mets have lacked that breakout moment to break the defeatist atmosphere around them.

The Mets need to take a line out of Al Pacino’s book from the movie Any Given Sunday and try to get out of this funk by keeping it simple.

Either we heal as a team or we are going to crumble. Inch by inch, play by play till we’re finished. We are in hell right now, gentlemen believe me and we can stay here and get the shit kicked out of us or we can fight our way back into the light. We can climb out of hell. One inch, at a time. That’s a team, gentlemen and either we heal now, as a team, or we will die as individuals. That’s baseball* guys. That’s all it is. Now, whattaya gonna do?

Terry Collins needs to find a way to get this message across to the team.  If it takes a team meeting where he plays the movie and forces them to watch it so be it something needs to be done.  I am not going into a complete panic because of a losing record 13 games into the year, it is the fashion they have gotten there.  Someone needs to grab the bull by the horns and win a game for this team to energize their teammates and lighten the mood surrounding them.

The fan base has suffered enough over the last few years to deal with these near failures.  Coming close is not going to cut it in New York.  No one cares about the person who finished in second.

In the early going to the 2011 season Terry Collins has had trouble managing the Mets bullpen because of the ineffectiveness of just about every pitcher in it.  The problems started from the get go with a blown save in the second game of the year by closer Francisco Rodriguez and seems to have had a trickle down affect on everyone else.  By just taking a look at the statistics one will see the full picture on their bad performance.  What’s not even shown here is the league leading 3 blown saves already.

Some would argue this was bound to happen with a bullpen that was pieced together off the scrap heap (Pedro Beato, Taylor Buchholz, and Blaine Boyer) and with just two real known quantities (K-Rod and D.J. Carrasco).  By using statistics, however, some said the Mets’ bullpen was going to be one of the strengths of the ball club and was severely underrated going into the season.  Seeing the problem, the Mets have already taken steps to fix it by designating Blaine Boyer for assignment and calling up Jason Isringhausen.  One step in the right direction.  Here are a few more things they need to do.

1. Take Bobby Parnell out of the 8th inning role

After following his career throughout the minors for three or four years I have developed a great liking for Parnell, but he is simply not ready for this role.  He had some success last year in 41 games with the Mets and has great stuff leading me to believe he will one day be able to lock down the 8th inning, just not this year.  He has too many problems with his command and composure for the high pressure situation of bridging the gap to K-Rod.

2.  Give the 8th inning role to Izzy

After over twelve years apart Jason Isringhausen finally made a return to the first bullpen he ever called home in a major league ballpark.  His reunion with the Mets went as perfect as one could have scripted with Izzy coming in a tough situation and stranding the runners on base.  Izzy has been around the block more than a few times with playoff experience and over 290 career saves so it is no question that pressure is not an issue for the veteran.  At this stage of his career he should be more than willing to become that vital, experienced setup man who not only performs on the field, but brings leadership to teach the younger pitchers like Parnell and Beato off the field, similar to a Trevor Hoffman in his last year.  I have no doubt in my mind Izzy would thrive in this situation.

3.  Use Tim Byrdak stricly against lefties

With only one lefty in the pen this year it will be more crucial than ever to use Byrdak sparingly.  Byrdak can not be managed in the same fashion as Pedro Feliciano was under Jerry Manuel and Willie Randolph.  At the very most Byrdak should be used to face three batters in an inning if it is to get a second lefty in a lefty-lefty match up (L-R-L in the lineup).  So far Byrdak has been managed pretty well having only faced more than three batters twice in his six appearances and hasn’t thrown more than 18 pitches.  At 37 years of age it is going to be important to keep his arm as fresh as possible for the later parts of the season.  An easy way to do this I would say to use him to get out just one batter and no more every three or four appearances.

4. Give Pedro Beato more responsibility

After never throwing a pitch above AA, Pedro Beato showed good enough stuff and pitched well enough in spring training to earn a spot in the bullpen and not just win one by default being a Rule V draft pick.  So far Terry Collins has used him just in situations when the game was out of reach, making him pitch meaningless innings.  He has performed as well as anyone in the pen thus far and looked fantastic in his Citi Field debut the other day really catching my attention.  His struggles in the minors that caused him to become a Rule V pick were a result of being a starting pitcher and ever since his move to the pen last year he has been virtually lights out.  I’m not excited enough to hand him the 8th or 7th inning just yet, but I think he is good enough to handle higher pressure situations in the middle innings when a crucial strikeout or ground ball is needed.

5. The starters must go deeper

The best way to help a bullpen out is to keep them fresh by having your starters pitch deep into games.  Through the first ten games only two Mets pitchers have pitched seven innings which was Jon Niese‘s performance in the second game of the year and Chris Young‘s last start on Sunday.  And as seen with that start nothing will even been a given when going seven strong.  Getting starts of just five innings from a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey is just unacceptable when at this stage of his development and with his size he should be a workhorse in the rotation eating innings left and right.  And a knuckleballer like R.A. Dickey should be pitching into the 7th with regularity and throwing closer to 110-120 pitches and not 97 and 106.

There are good arms in the pen with potential who haven’t pitched all that poorly outside of the control issues.  The problems with the control can partially be attributed to early of the season rust and nothing more, but the fact of the matter is the results are going to need to be better or more changes will need to be made.

I was a little bummed to go onto Metsblog today and see Rich Coutinho stole my thunder by saying he thinks the Mets are an 85 win team.  Right now I have them penciled in for 85 wins minimum with a chance for a little more and a possible wild card push.

Last year the Mets had a season where they under performed and still managed to have a season where they won 79 games and based off pythagorean W-L should have 81 wins.  There are plenty of reasons I see the Mets improving that number by at least 6 wins for 2011.

It all starts with the improved pitching staff put together by Sandy Alderson.  Just take a quick look at some of the names that saw significant time in the rotation last year. In case you forgot the opening day rotation consisted of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, Oliver Perez, and John Maine.  The first three are solid, but the last two might as well not be in the major leagues.

Last year Oliver Perez received 7 starts.  In those stats the Mets went 1-6. Not surprising by any means.  An even crazier stat regarding Ollie P is that in the 17 games he appeared in the Mets went 1-16.  If there was ever a player that was an addition by subtraction Perez is it.  Your team doesn’t just happen to have that poor of a record in games you pitched in by accident.

Then there was the 9 games started by John Maine we had to suffer through.  Maine was able to reach the sixth inning just three times in those games, putting great tax on the bullpen during his games who had to eat a lot of innings.  I like Maine, but an ERA in the 6′s just does not cut it from a major league starter.

While this guy did a spectacular job out of the pen for the Mets, Hisanori Takahashi had twelve starts for the Mets and wasn’t very good.  His ERA out of the pen was 2.04 then he made the switch and posted a 5.01 in the rotation.  Like Maine he failed to go deep into games averaging 5.1 innings per start.  This had a double negative effect on the Mets, as now they needed to eat innings with the pen and possibly their best reliever was not available.

Yes losing out on 29 starts from Santana is going to be a killer, but there is still hope he will be back at some point this year.  The Mets now get a full year out of R.A. Dickey, Niese is no longer a rookie who knows what to expect, and Chris Young and Chris Capuano in the last two spots is solid enough back-end of the rotation for any team.  There will be concerns if Niese, Young, and Capuano can hold up for the whole season, but for now we’ll assume they will be healthy until they give us a reason to believe they won’t.  Even though the top dog is out the rotation as a whole is more solid with five capable pitchers.

To go along with the rotation Alderson has put together a bullpen that should not be guffawed at.  As this article at Fangraphs points out the Mets bullpen has become a strength of the team.  If the spring Frankie Rodriguez and Blaine Boyer had are any indication of how they will pitch in 2011, the pen could be even better than what is already expected of them.  If Manny Acosta clears waivers having him, Jason Isringhausen, Pat Misch, and a couple of good relief prospects in AAA provides the Mets with better pitchers to be called up than Fernando Nieves and Raul Valdeses of the world if need be.

I almost laughed when looking at some of the names on the opening day lineup and roster from last year. Rod Barajas, Luis Castillo, Jeff Francoeur, GARY MATTHEWS JR., Fernando Tatis, Frank Catalanotto, and Henry Blanco.  Just looking at these names it makes me sad my favorite team trotted those players on the field and shows just how bad of a GM Omar Minaya was.

Being the biggest Brad Emaus fan boy around, throwing him in at second base and Carlos Beltran in at right field gives the Mets a much more complete offensive lineup that will actually pose a threat for opposing pitchers.  When dealing with a healthy lineup just take a look at the top names. Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Beltran, Jason Bay, and Ike Davis.  That is a very formidable top six players and even above-average for a National League team.  As of right now I am not too concerned with Bay’s injury which plays a big factor in my prediction.

There is a whole new feel for this team with all the changes.  Outside of the Madoff situation, which is a problem with the owners, everything has been smooth sailing since the reigns have been handed off to Alderson.  He has been playing all his cards right with player personnel, the relationship with the fans, and team personnel.

When the Mets fired Willie Randolph they replaced him with someone who had been part of the collapse, part of Randolph’s coaching staff, and had a similar style to Randolph.  Nothing seemed to change except for the name of the man filling out the scorecard.  Terry Collins provides a completely different attitude.  Not every team can deal with a personality as fiery as his, but if the team gets off to a good start they can rally behind Collins and his style.

The final reason the Mets will shock everyone is that there is absolutely no pressure on this team.  The Las Vegas lines have the Mets as a 74 win team, Sports Illustrated has them finishing dead last in the NL East, and anyone I have spoken to seems to think they will go no where.  Anyone who has played in a sport can tell you when the expectations are lower everything becomes so much easier.  There is no where for them to go, but up from here.  The era of the Mets collapses are over.

For the upcoming 2011 season the Mets have decided to carry seven relievers in the bullpen.  With only a few days left until opening day the Mets have six of the spots secured by Francisco Rodriguez, Taylor Buchholz, Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, D.J. Carrasco, and Pedro Beato. The competition for the final spot has seemingly become a two-headed race between the former All-Star closer Jason Isringhausen and the journey man reliever Blaine Boyer.  Before getting set to write this I was dead set on the Mets bringing Izzy, but now I am not so sure.  Both pitchers didn’t make it any easier by throwing a scoreless inning in today’s game against the Cardinals.

One major factor Izzy has over Boyer is the experience.  Izzy has pitched in the playoffs on five different occasions even making one World Series appearance in 2004.  In post season play Izzy has logged 26.2 inning and gone 1-1 with 11 saves in 12 opportunities in 23 games with a flashy 2.36 ERA.  Experience is one thing you can not teach to someone and Izzy has already felt and succeeded in those moments when it feels like the weight of the world is one your shoulders, while Boyer has yet to experience post season play.

Even with all his credentials most people, as I know I did, did not think too much of the move when the Mets invited Izzy to spring training. Just another older injury-riddled player trying to get lucky and latch on to a team.  Izzy has shut up all the doubters pitching to a tune of a 1.29 ERA despite struggling with his command walking 3 and striking out just 3.  Mostly do to giving up just 2 hits.  The negative side of his spring, Izzy has already had to be shut down briefly with a sore elbow. Not a good for someone who has already undergone three Tommy John surgeries.

Photo by Michael G. Baron

His counterpart, the 29-year-old Blaine Boyer was brought into camp on a minor league contract with an invite to spring training after a mediocre season with the Diamondbacks who had claimed him off waivers the year before.  Despite the low strikeout totals Boyer is equipped with a nice fastball that averages 94-mph that enables him to get a lot of ground balls averaging 56% GB for his career and 66% last year.  If you are looking for a reliever to come in and try and get that ground ball double play that the Mets have been missing since Chad Bradford then Boyer is your guy.  Boyer has shown a lot this spring giving up just 1 run in 10 innings for a 0.90 ERA while walking 3 and striking out 7.  While he has shown good command so far in spring over the last two seasons he has a 49:58 K:BB.  Not a good number for someone coming out of the pen who could come in with runners on base and need to get a big out.

Isringhausen has already stated he will not accept a minor league assignment so the Mets will lose him if he does not make the team.  On the other hand Boyer has an opt out clause in his contract for Thursday.  This essentially means if he does not make the team he has the opportunity to opt out instead of going to the minor leagues.  The odds are the Mets are going to lose the pitcher who does not make the team.

While both pitchers have pitched admirably if I was Sandy Alderson I would be taking the guy who has been around the block a few times with me on opening day.  Marcel projections have Boyer pegged to pitched slightly better in 2011, but it is the intangibles that Izzy brings that give him the edge.  It is a bit of a risk to take Izzy because his elbow could give out any day now, but its a risk that has a good enough of a reward for me to take.  After the way Boyer has pitched I would not be disappointed if the Mets decide to give him the last spot, however, he is also a talent that I think could be replaced with a AAA call up or a pitcher who is DFA.  This is a great position for the Mets to be in having too many arms for the pen after trying to piece pens together for the last couple of years.  And come on who wouldn’t love to see Izzy succeed in a Mets uni after all these years?

If there was ever a moral reason to watch sports, and not just purely for entertainment value, it is to teach you that anything can happen and there is a reason why we don’t just select the winner.  Watching the NCAA tournament every year reminds me of this when you see teams like George Mason, Butler, and now VSU this year beat opponents the “experts” say they never had a chance against.

Listening to Mike Francesa while driving in the car (I’ll still never know why I do this to myself) people are saying you are insane if you think the Mets will have any success this year and are writing them off before the season begins. Are they the best team in baseball, league, or even division? No. At least not on paper, but how often does the best team actually win?

The Mets have their holes I won’t even try to deny that.  With their ace Johan Santana out for most of the season and a chance to be the whole year if there are any setbacks their rotation is a huge question mark.  The most proven guy in the rotation is Mike Pelfrey and he is even still erratic. You just never know what you are going to get.  A sophomore pitcher is the team’s number 2 starter, a knuckleballer the number 3, and two guys in the second year of rehab after major surgery round out the rotation.  It sounds like the rotation of a last place team, but another solid season from Big Pelf, an improvement off a nice rookie campaign, more magic from R.A. Dickey, and one of the reclamation projects panning out makes this a very nice rotation.  I don’t think it would be that much of a stretch to say this rotation winds up exceeding expectations with the personalities of each pitcher.  It is a rotation filled with gamers who have done nothing, but prove doubters wrong for their whole career (outside of Pelfrey) so what’s to stop them now.  My prediction is the rotation actually keeps the offense in most games this season and gives them an opportunity to win every game.

All-Star third baseman David Wright. All-Star shortstop Jose Reyes. All-Star outfielder Jason Bay. All-Star outfielder Carlos Beltran.  Sure these guys have all had their fair share of problems recently, but it just goes to show what type of talent is in this lineup.  Bay who was awful last year was coming off back-to-back 30 homer seasons and is having a great spring, Reyes quietly had a very solid season last year and is in a walk year, when Beltran is healthy he hits that part is never in question, and Wright finally seems to be getting his power stroke back. Not to mention Angel Pagan who should have been an All-Star last year and has some new confidence predicting he will steal more bags than Reyes, a former league leader in steals. Throw in Ike Davis who was nothing short of solid in his rookie season and you can see an offense that can put up runs.  A lot of faith is being placed in the health of players (Bay, Beltran, even Reyes) and young players (Davis, Josh Thole, Brad Emaus/2nd baseman), but I just don’t see how you can completely write off a lineup that has as much potential as this one.

As with every team, this is not even close to a perfect team but it is far from the last place team people are calling them.  With the new philosophies of Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins who’s to say they will not inject a new energy in this team that has seemed to be the only thing lacking in previous years causing their infamous collapses?

What I am trying to say is no one knows how this team is going to perform because it is very different from the Mets teams of years past. Call me a very optimistic Mets’ fan but I see a team that if things go right have every chance to contend.  Just imagine a team 4 games or less back to only have their ace come back mid-season and inject new vigor to the team.

Let’s just play the games and decide the outcome on the field before writing a team off before the season even starts.

Reading Oliver Perez‘s quotes after his awful performance in spring training today, in which he went 2 innings giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks (although he did strikeout 3), had be cracking up.  I don’t see how he can be taking his job serious when he says things like this.

“I think the second inning, they took more pitches, and I think most of the pitches were around the home plate,” said Perez. “But when it was a real good pitch with two strikes, they took it. And that’s why I walked those three guys. … They took really goods [at-bats], and sometimes you have to tip your hat.”

“Because in the past week, we’ve been working hard, and I think everybody is kind of tired a little bit, because it was very sunny,” he said.

Really? You are blaming it on the sun and being a little tired.  This was a 2 inning stint not a 6+ inning start.  I’m sure it was the sun’s fault you got smacked around and not the blazing 84 mph fastball you were sporting.  Even Jamie Moyer was laughing at Ollie’s velo today. It was also a good idea to tip your hat to the amazing talents of Alex Gonzalez, David Ross, and Joe Mather who were walked back-to-back-to-back in the 4th inning for taking pitches.  Going out on a hunch and saying they didn’t swing the bats because you have worse control than the pitchers in the Little league World Series. He better not be on the roster opening day or I will scream.