Over at Mets Today Joe Janish tries to answer the question of who should be the Mets leadoff hitter now that Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan are gone.

He looks at the players ability to get on base and their ability to maneuver around the base paths, and comes to the conclusion that the Mets might be best to go ths unconventional route and use Jason Bay because of the lack of other options. It is a very difficult question to answer and an even more compelling solution so I wanted to give my own outlook on the situation.

I took a look at the career numbers of every player who hit leadoff during the MLB games from July 1st-3rd, 2011. There was no real rhyme or reason for the dates I picked, but I wound up with the numbers of 41 different players to compare the Mets projected starting eight with.

I was actually shocked with how low the overall OBP the 41 leadoff men had.

.328 is a pretty low number on-base percentage for a leadoff hitter and as the graph shows only one of the Mets projected starters is below that number. The ironic part is that Andres Torres has the most leadoff experience of anyone on the Mets. His career OBP is only .318, but this number was greatly effected by his 2011 season where he batted only .221 with a .312 OBP. In 2009 and 2010 he posted an OBP of .343. I am going to come back to this point later on.

I also wanted to go a little new school at take a look at a sabermetric stat that theoretically is just as important to look at for a leadoff hitter as OBP is.

According to Tom Tango the average hitter should have a .340 wOBA, but the leadoff hitters from the sample averaged just a .319 wOBA. Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole were the only two Mets to fall below that number and both happened to be listed as finalists by Janish for the leadoff spot.

With wOBA as with OBP,  David Wright and Jason Bay are right at the top of the list. Janish’s proposal to use an unconventional leadoff hitter looks extremely plausible with these numbers. Both have been the Mets best and most efficient hitters at getting on base over their career and both have respectable speed. After all, as kids the best hitter always bats first and their power would not be a complete waste because they are only guaranteed to come up with the bases empty once a game.

Alden Gonzalez recently tried to point out all eight teams that made the playoffs last year had unconventional leadoff men, but looking at the list the only Corey Hart and Ian Kinsler (and maybe Derek Jeter) are truly unconventional leadoff hitters in my opinion. With that said, those two actually have a relatively similar offensive skill set to Bay and Wright. I would be lying if I said the idea didn’t intrigue me at all.

It is that only other player I’ve really mentioned in this article that I think makes that intriguing idea obsolete.

Neither Bay or Wright have experience at hitting leadoff. For me that is a big deal. It is not so easy to spontaneously change the approach you have used your whole career and start setting the tone at the beginning of a game by watching more pitches than you are used to instead of jumping on the first good pitch you see. Add in the fact that you have two veteran players who have been shaky (to put it kindly) the last few years and I think this is the type of change that can only do more harm than good.

The only player who really has logged a significant amount of  hitting leadoff in the majors is the guy who the Mets got back for Angel Pagan—Andres Torres.

As I spoke about earlier Torres’s OBP dropped by .030 points last year fueled by a .050 point drop off in his batting average. The cause for the drop off in his average? Well looking at the numbers it seems like his achilles injury could have had a big part to do with it.

For his career his numbers have been equal hitting from either side of the plate. When he injured his left foot (his plant foot) in 2011 his numbers from the right side dropped off dramatically, while from the left side he only had a marginally small drop off in power. The injury looks to have caused him an inability to drive the ball with authority, which is why his line drive rate fell and consequently his BABIP.

Normally I am not a huge believer in BABIP being a tremendously reliable stat to look at, but Torres slightly improved his walk rate in 2011 and didn’t have any significant increase in strikeouts, so other than the injury being a contributing factor to a lack of power I do not see an obvious reason for his poor season.

Without Reyes the Mets have no perfect leadoff man. What they do have is a man who hit leadoff for a team that won the World Series. He is an aging player yes, but he has patience and is easily the fastest man in the Mets starting eight. Janish made a compelling case to go the unconventional route, but he left Torres out of his argument and that is why I don’t think is much of a debate. As long as Torres was able to heal 100 percent over the off-season and can produce in 2012 like he did in 2009 and 2010, then the leadoff position won’t be a major concern for the Mets in 2012 at least.

After the Mets shocking trade of Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers last night (shocking at the time of the trade and team, not the deal itself), they have until September to pick two players off a list of prospects. The contents of this list are still unkown to the public so it is our job to speculate about what kind of return Sandy Alderson pulled in on his first major trade. Because they will be waiting till September, in order to have more time to scout the players, all 2010 draft picks will be in play, although has been reported they won’t get any of the “top top guys” aka Tyler Thornburg, the only one they have in my opinion.

Pipe Dream Players

Tyler Thornburg, RHP – Was classified as a “Tim Lincecum wannabe” coming out of college. I have seen that term used a few times regarding 6’0″ and under pitchers in a condescending way and quiet frankly I do not understand why it is such a bad thing to try and emulate one of the most successful pitchers in baseball. Thornburg represented the Brewers in the Futures Game and hit 95 mph with his fastball. He also features a very good overhand curve. If the Mets somehow snagged him this would be a steal, but I don’t see it happening.

Wily Peralta, RHP – Husky pitcher with a 92-94 mph fastball that touches higher, good slider, and change. He has been great in Double-A this year outside of one month and with the Brewers lack of depth I can’t see them trading his arm.

Possible, But Unlikely

Eric Farris, 2B – A second baseman with plus speed (Stole 70 bases in 2009) who plays good defense. The Mets have their options at second base with Justin Turner, Ruben Tejada, and Daniel Murphy, but their never ending search for a franchise second baseman continues.

Kentrail Davis, OF – The Brewers first round supp. pick in the 2009 draft out of Tennessee. Davis tore up the Midwest League last year, but has struggled ever since his domotion to High-A midway through last year. Davis has plus speed and a short swing, but the power is not ideal for a corner outfielder.  Even with the struggles this year, the Brewers are unlikely to deal him just yet.

Plausible Prospects That Intrigue Me

Kyle Heckathorn, RHP – A big right-handed pitcher who loves picking up the groundballs. Doesn’t have great strikeout numbers, but his stuff isn’t that bad. He throws his sinker in the low 90′s, toughing 94 mph. In the past he has reached higher with his four-seamer. Also throws a changeup and slider that are not nearly on the same level as his sinker.

Khris Davis, OF – Wasn’t a top prospect at draft time, but has mashed. He has showed tremendous power and a good approach at the plate.

Hunter Morris, 1B – Not the best position to target. Still, he has performed well and a move to the outfield isn’t too far out of the question.

Caleb Gindl, OF – Doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, however, he has great pitch recognition and is extremely solid all-around.

Taylor Green, 3B – It feels like has been around forever and is still stuck in Triple-A. He knows how to hit, but I get a Daniel Murphy type feel from him.

“Those” Guys

Eric Arnett, RHP – The 2011 1st round pick is still stuck in rookie ball due to his erratic command. The stuff is still there and the command has shown improvements this year.

Mark Rogers, RHP – Another former 1st round pick whose stock is way down because of command issues. All about harnessing the stuff. Not sure if I would even want to touch him at this point.

Anyone who has not yet read the controversial The New Yorker article surrounding the comments made by New York Mets owner must do so to get a full grasp on what and why Fred Wilpon said what he did about the Mets.

The quotes that have come into question certainly do look bad on the surface and are things that Fred Wilpon should not have said being the owner of a team, but in all honesty are being blown out of proportion by fans and the media and are things we have all been thinking.

• “He [Jose Reyes] thinks he’s going to get Carl Crawford money,” “He’s had everything wrong with him,” “He won’t get it.”
• “He’s[David Wright] pressing,” “A really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar.”
• “We had some schmuck in New York who paid him[Caros Beltran] based on that one series,” “He’s sixty-five to seventy per cent of what he was.”
• “(Ike Davis is a) Good hitter. … Shitty team – good hitter.”
• “We’re snakebitten, baby.”

For starters these quotes are just a couple of paragraphs in a much larger, feel-good story about how Wilpon went from being a baseball fanatic and star athlete, to a door to door calculator salesman because of injury that killed his major league dreams, to a self-taught real estate genius and eventual owner of the Mets. It is really a terrific read that could hit home with a lot of fans who grew up in a similar situation as Wilpon and a story they can relate to.

(Sipkin/News)

Back to the said quotes under scrutiny.

The way these read in the article were as an honest assessment of a frustrated owner who is sick of the underachieving results on the field from one of the highest payrolls in baseball and not someone throwing his players under the bus. The article also gives a sense that all the frustration is genuine and the only reason Fred Wilpon even said these things is because he really does truly care about the team, which a lot of fans try to portray differently (Hello Freddy Coupons).

What I intentionally left out from the quotes above because I have seen so many bloggers leave it out, including Matt Cerrone which shocked me, is that before making those comments about Reyes not getting Crawford money he called Reyes a “racehorse”. Not a huge statement, but certainly one that shows Wilpon appreciates the contributions Reyes has made to the team he just thinks Reyes is asking for far too much money, which he probably is.

When I first read the shmuck comments I took it as he was calling Omar Minaya the shmuck because that is how some people are portraying it, but the article clearly states “he said[shmuck], referring to himself”.

As far as the Wright comments go, it may not be the best idea to call the face of your franchise “not a superstar”, but David has not earned the title yet, as much as I love him. Stars are born in the regular season. Superstars are born in the playoffs.

I have no idea how to take the Ike Davis “sh-tty team” comments. I can’t think of one logical reason to call the product you put on the field sh-tty, unless of course he was getting confused with the name of the stadium.

Was it a good idea to say these things? Probably not. Are these comments bad? Yes. Were they dumb things to say? Yes. Are they nearly as bad as everyone is trying to make them out to be? No.

The comments are a PR nightmare, but they are not even near the same level as fights between George Steinbrenner and Billy Martin in my opinion. No where in this article did it sound like Fred Wilpon was trying to take shots at his players in a nasty way, he was just saying what was on his mind—something any good New Yorker does.

My biggest fears are that these comments will have some bad affect on the trade markets for Reyes and Beltran or that potential free agents are going to shy away from the Mets because they will see this as the Mets have an owner who throws his players under the bus. I don’t agree with that assessment, but the national media has a lot of influence and with the way stories about the Mets get bashed any little thing could harm the teams chances.

Two things are for sure about this. (1)Sometimes even when things you say are true from a business standpoint you have to stick your foot in your mouth and Fred Wilpon just learned that the hard way and (2)I wouldn’t be shocked to see a change in ownership sooner rather than later.

It’s easy to understand why the Fred Wilpon is so frustrated with the difficult times he is going through with the billion dollar lawsuit, but next time Fred just stick your foot in your mouth so we can avoid this situation all together.

On Sunday May 1st, a night that will be remembered by Americans for other reasons, the New York Mets pulled out a 2-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies in a 14 inning affair. The Mets had led the game until the bottom of the 8th inning when the Phillies scored a run to tie it up at one and cause the extra innings.

(Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

While the Phillies scored a run in the inning, what will go unnoticed is how much credit Mets’ manager Terry Collins deserves for how well he managed that 8th inning.  A managers performance cannot always be determined by his players success at executing their job.

The inning started off innocently enough with Collins bringing in his top setup man, Jason Isringhausen, to hold onto the one run lead Chris Young left the game with. He walked the the lead-off hitter, but then got an out on a sacrifice bunt and then induced a routine pop up to strand the runner at second with two outs. Everything was going as planned. However, Izzy would proceed to walk the switch-hitting Jimmy Rollins, causing slugging left-handed hitter Ryan Howard to come up to the plate. Collins would make the first move in the inning by move pulling Izzy in favor of Tim Byrdak. Byrdak failed to do his job and Howard tied the game up on an opposite field single.  In response Collins would make his last move of the innings by pulling Byrdak and bringing in closer Francisco Rodriguez during a tie game. Rodriguez would go on to get the Mets out of the inning.

That move is the one that caused Collins to receive some scrutiny from fans as well as the ESPN announcers. The announcers on ESPN wanted to know why if Collins was going to bring in K-Rod in this inning he didn’t do it why the Mets still had the lead. Fans were also tweeting wondering why would he bring in K-Rod at all during this inning once it was tied because now who was going to close should the Mets take the lead.

The fact of the matter is neither question should have been raised because Collins managed the inning as well as anyone could have managed.

No one will will argue Collins’ decision to bring in Isringhausen in the first place so I won’t even bother to explain that move that was a must make move.

The first question to respond to is, “Why not bring in Francisco Rodriguez while the Mets still had the lead if you were going to bring him in when the game became tied?”

The answer should have been simple, but then again there is a reason cringe every time I realize the Mets are playing on ESPN. It is all about match ups, career numbers, and splits. First let’s just take a quick look at Ryan Howard’s career splits:

vs. RHP: .303/.400/.636 with a 24% strikeout per plate appearance rate

vs. LHP: .234/.315/.450 with a 33% strikeout per plate appearance rate

The numbers speak for themselves, especially the triple slash marks. Howard has made a career of feasting off right-handed pitching and K-Rod is a righty while Byrdak, the man he brought in, is a lefty. The percentages showed that Howard’s chance of not only driving in the run, but even making contact would be dramatically reduced if he was facing a left-handed pitcher.

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The other numbers to look at are Tim Byrdak’s career numbers vs. Ryan Howard before Sunday night. Howard had faced Byrdak 12 times in his career getting just one hit and one walk, while striking out six times. If you wanna see his triple slash line it looked like this .083/.154/.083. Byrdak had simply dominated Howard in his career striking him out 46% of the time. Not to mention over his career Byrdak has held all lefties to a .204 batting average.

The reason a pitcher like Byrdak are on the roster is for situations exactly like this.  The name for pitchers like him in the bullpen is a LOOGY, which stands for Lefty One-Out GuY. He is supposed to come in and get just one left-handed batter out during a game. Terry Collins was trying to do just this and have Byrdak come in to get one out.

Conventional wisdom says to try and get the lefty-lefty match up anyway and this specific situation showed that getting that match up favored your team even more, giving Terry Collins plenty of reasons to bring in Tim Byrdak with the lead intact instead of bringing in his closer.

The next question that needs to be addressed is, “Once the game is tied why bring in K-Rod because who else is going to close the game out should the Mets get the lead?”

Why this stood out as a great move to me is because of how I define the “closers” role.  It is basic knowledge to baseball fans that the closer is the best reliever on the team, which is why most would say to use the closer to finish the game because it is the highest leverage portion of the game.

In this game against the Phillies, however, the 8th inning served this role. Getting the last out of the 8th was going to be the most crucial out of the game because if the Mets did not make it out of the 8th with the game tied it wouldn’t even matter who Collins would pick to try and notch the save because any hit would have plated the go ahead run and made the question irrelevant.

Collins used his closer to close out the most important inning of the game, that way he even had the opportunity to decide who would close out the game with his best reliever already burnt.  That is how a closer should be used. To get the biggest out(s) of the game, which may not always occur as the last three outs.

Not to mention Collins found a way to make sure Rodriguez did not get a game finished and make it more difficult to reach the option in his contract.

Collins did everything right in that 8th inning of a huge game to prevent a sweep against a division rival and more importantly four game losing streak that would have almost completely nullified the six game win streak they were on just before it. I learned a lot from TC the way he handled such a tough decision process and am glad I no longer have to deal with Jerry Manuel who surely would have screwed that one up.

As Keith Hernandez loves to say, “Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”

In the young season the Mets have managed to take a season of hope with so many changes in the off-season and a great 3-1 start into a season of early heartbreak.  The Mets have taken two aspects of a baseball that usually generate a wining formula and turned them into a stlyish way to lose and torment the Shea Citi Faithful.

Over the course of the first 13 games that saw the Mets go 4-9, they have done two things well as a team: (1)Score runs early in the early innings of games and (2)Make late inning comebacks.  One would assume a team who could do these things on a consistent basis would be on their way to a winning season — but not the Mets.

Out of the 13 games the Mets have put the first run on the board in 9 of those games, but would go on to lose 5 of those games.  There are two major reasons for the Mets failures to capitalize on these opportunities to close out leads.

The first reason has noticeably been the pitching staff.  The issues go deeper than just the bullpens inability to not give up runs.  In a mind blowing stat Mets pitchers have given up a run in the half inning following a Mets run a resounding 43% of the time.  That is the easiest way to kill any momentum the team just gained.

The other issue is the team has also failed to tack on to their leads.  Even in a game like the one against Cole Hamels and the Phillies they were able to put 6 runs up quickly, but were only able to add on 1 run for the rest of the game.  The Mets know as well as anyone a 6 run lead in the ballpark is not safe even though things worked out that time.  The offense is going to need to realize the pitching is too shaky to think any lead is safe and need to pour the runs on throughout the whole game.

I never even got to mention their continued troubles with bringing home the man on 3rd with less than two outs, especially in the first inning with the rate Jose Reyes has been going on so far.

Manager Terry Collins said it best.  The Mets had been just one pitch or one hit away from being a 9-2 team rather than the 4-7 one they stood at before being swept in the double header.  He hit the nail on the head recognizing his team could not find a way to come through in that clutch moment.  His players did not respond the way one would hope after being called out by losing yet another close game….

David Wright‘s at-bat with Matt Lidstrom in that next game against the Colorado Rockies could sum up the Mets’ whole season up until this point and continue that theme of missing their one moment.  Falling just one run, one ball, one base, one foot (give or take) short away from getting the win.  The whole feel of the team right now seems negative and the Mets have lacked that breakout moment to break the defeatist atmosphere around them.

The Mets need to take a line out of Al Pacino’s book from the movie Any Given Sunday and try to get out of this funk by keeping it simple.

Either we heal as a team or we are going to crumble. Inch by inch, play by play till we’re finished. We are in hell right now, gentlemen believe me and we can stay here and get the shit kicked out of us or we can fight our way back into the light. We can climb out of hell. One inch, at a time. That’s a team, gentlemen and either we heal now, as a team, or we will die as individuals. That’s baseball* guys. That’s all it is. Now, whattaya gonna do?

Terry Collins needs to find a way to get this message across to the team.  If it takes a team meeting where he plays the movie and forces them to watch it so be it something needs to be done.  I am not going into a complete panic because of a losing record 13 games into the year, it is the fashion they have gotten there.  Someone needs to grab the bull by the horns and win a game for this team to energize their teammates and lighten the mood surrounding them.

The fan base has suffered enough over the last few years to deal with these near failures.  Coming close is not going to cut it in New York.  No one cares about the person who finished in second.