He looks at the players ability to get on base and their ability to maneuver around the base paths, and comes to the conclusion that the Mets might be best to go ths unconventional route and use Jason Bay because of the lack of other options. It is a very difficult question to answer and an even more compelling solution so I wanted to give my own outlook on the situation.

I took a look at the career numbers of every player who hit leadoff during the MLB games from July 1st-3rd, 2011. There was no real rhyme or reason for the dates I picked, but I wound up with the numbers of 41 different players to compare the Mets projected starting eight with.

I was actually shocked with how low the overall OBP the 41 leadoff men had.

.328 is a pretty low number on-base percentage for a leadoff hitter and as the graph shows only one of the Mets projected starters is below that number. The ironic part is that Andres Torres has the most leadoff experience of anyone on the Mets. His career OBP is only .318, but this number was greatly effected by his 2011 season where he batted only .221 with a .312 OBP. In 2009 and 2010 he posted an OBP of .343. I am going to come back to this point later on.

I also wanted to go a little new school at take a look at a sabermetric stat that theoretically is just as important to look at for a leadoff hitter as OBP is.

According to Tom Tango the average hitter should have a .340 wOBA, but the leadoff hitters from the sample averaged just a .319 wOBA. Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole were the only two Mets to fall below that number and both happened to be listed as finalists by Janish for the leadoff spot.

With wOBA as with OBP,  David Wright and Jason Bay are right at the top of the list. Janish’s proposal to use an unconventional leadoff hitter looks extremely plausible with these numbers. Both have been the Mets best and most efficient hitters at getting on base over their career and both have respectable speed. After all, as kids the best hitter always bats first and their power would not be a complete waste because they are only guaranteed to come up with the bases empty once a game.

Alden Gonzalez recently tried to point out all eight teams that made the playoffs last year had unconventional leadoff men, but looking at the list the only Corey Hart and Ian Kinsler (and maybe Derek Jeter) are truly unconventional leadoff hitters in my opinion. With that said, those two actually have a relatively similar offensive skill set to Bay and Wright. I would be lying if I said the idea didn’t intrigue me at all.

It is that only other player I’ve really mentioned in this article that I think makes that intriguing idea obsolete.

Neither Bay or Wright have experience at hitting leadoff. For me that is a big deal. It is not so easy to spontaneously change the approach you have used your whole career and start setting the tone at the beginning of a game by watching more pitches than you are used to instead of jumping on the first good pitch you see. Add in the fact that you have two veteran players who have been shaky (to put it kindly) the last few years and I think this is the type of change that can only do more harm than good.

The only player who really has logged a significant amount of  hitting leadoff in the majors is the guy who the Mets got back for Angel Pagan—Andres Torres.

As I spoke about earlier Torres’s OBP dropped by .030 points last year fueled by a .050 point drop off in his batting average. The cause for the drop off in his average? Well looking at the numbers it seems like his achilles injury could have had a big part to do with it.

For his career his numbers have been equal hitting from either side of the plate. When he injured his left foot (his plant foot) in 2011 his numbers from the right side dropped off dramatically, while from the left side he only had a marginally small drop off in power. The injury looks to have caused him an inability to drive the ball with authority, which is why his line drive rate fell and consequently his BABIP.

Normally I am not a huge believer in BABIP being a tremendously reliable stat to look at, but Torres slightly improved his walk rate in 2011 and didn’t have any significant increase in strikeouts, so other than the injury being a contributing factor to a lack of power I do not see an obvious reason for his poor season.

Without Reyes the Mets have no perfect leadoff man. What they do have is a man who hit leadoff for a team that won the World Series. He is an aging player yes, but he has patience and is easily the fastest man in the Mets starting eight. Janish made a compelling case to go the unconventional route, but he left Torres out of his argument and that is why I don’t think is much of a debate. As long as Torres was able to heal 100 percent over the off-season and can produce in 2012 like he did in 2009 and 2010, then the leadoff position won’t be a major concern for the Mets in 2012 at least.

1. Matt Harvey | RHP | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 1st Round 2010 (8.0 B) – I was very bearish on him at the time of the draft and Harvey has managed to quickly turn me into a believer. His stuff has always been undeniable, but his command is much, much better than I anticipated which changed my tune. He gets the edge over Wheeler because of closeness to breaking in and his workhorse body.

2. Zack Wheeler | RHP | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 1st Round 2009 (SFG) (8.5 C) – The switch back to his high school mechanics is looking like a brilliant one right now with the big improvement he showed in command. Just a tick under Harvey, but the two are interchangeable depending on whom you ask.

3. Jeurys Familia | RHP | AA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (8.0 C) – I have always been one of Familia’s biggest fans. I ranked him 9th last year when most did not put him in the top 10 and I think he has a much better chance at sticking in the rotation than he gets credit for. I actually put a lot of stock into Wally Backman’s praise of him.

4. Brandon Nimmo | OF | Rk | Age – 18| Drafted – 1st Round 2011 (8.0 D) – I was a big proponent of going with Matt Barnes with this pick, but the Mets are top heavy with right-handed pitchers and lack serious upside with hitters, so this pick has grown on me. He is very far away, but the sky is the limit.

5. Jenrry Mejia | RHP | AAA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (7.5 C) – The injury is definitely a serious concern, especially when that has been a fear of most experts. His upside still gets him near the top of this list because based on what he showed at age 20 in the Big Leagues I feel comfortable he can at least be this team’s closer one day. Optimistic? Maybe.

6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis | OF | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2008 (7.0 B) – In my opinion his defensive “liabilities” are overrated. He certainly has what it takes to play an adequate center field and I will get into more detail about that later. The only thing holding him back from being a definite regular right now is the strikeouts.

7. Cesar Puello | OF | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (7.5 C) – As excited as I am about the uptick in homeruns (especially in the FSL), I am equally disappointed with the dramatic drop-off in steals and the complete inability to take a walk considering his speed can be a problem on the basepaths. This year will be a very telling year for Puello.

8. Reese Havens | 2B | AA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (7.0 C) – I love Reese, but it is getting to a point where it is time to for him to put up or shut up. He is already 25-years-old and has yet to play 100 games in a professional season. He very well should be the Mets starting 2nd baseman this year (and probably would be if not for injuries) and the fact that he has not been able to stay healthy to secure that job bothers me.

9. Wilmer Flores | SS | HiA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (8.0 D) – Oh Wilmer. Such a tough one to grade/place. It is never a good sign when a player regresses while repeating a level. He doesn’t strike out a lot, but needs to show he can take a walk. Only real positive I guess is he has driven in over 80 runs the last two years. I consider that somewhat of a skill.

10. Michael Fulmer | RHP | GCL | Age – 18 | Drafted – 1st Supp. 2011 (7.5 C) – His ERA was pretty bloated okay, but I was more impressed with his striking out of two batters per inning in brief time. I maybe a little too optimistic about him.

11. Jordany Valdespin  | 2B | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (7.0 C) – He has his problems like any prospects, however, if that power surge turns out to be for real then Valdespin becomes the Mets top 2nd base option over Havens.

12. Cory Mazzoni | RHP | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2011 (6.5 B) – Mazzoni was lights out in relief and displayed good command and stuff. I want to see how he performs in the rotation before he goes top 10, but things do look good here.

13. Darin Gorski | LHP | HiA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 4th Round 2009 (6.0 B) – When I went back to check, I was extremely surprised that I did not even have him in the top 50 last year because I did like him. Shows you what kind of season he had to go from unranked to the top lefty in the system.

14. Phillip Evans | SS | SSA | Age – 19 | Drafted – 15th Round 2011 (7.5 C) – I liked him enough that I was going to take him with my last pick in my Mets shadow draft, but instead went with Nathan Melendres because I didn’t think he would sign. Lucky for me the Mets took him and convinced him to sign so now I look like a genius!

15. Cory Vaughn | OF | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 4th Round 2010 (7.0 C) – Because he was so good for Brooklyn in 2010, he gets a slight pass on 2011 due to the reports he played through a heel injury. He still did enough things well and has a high enough potential for me to discredit with an injury plagued season.

16. Juan Lagares | OF | HiA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (6.5 C) – I still have absolutely no clue what I want to make of his stellar 2011 performance, but I am leaning more towards fluke than breakout which prevents me from putting him any higher.

17. Akeel Morris | RHP | Rk | Age – 22 | Drafted – 10th Round 2010 (8.0 D) – This is one of those he is “only ranked 17th”, but if you look at the rating I gave his potential it shows how much I think of him. His talent is right there with anyone on this list he just needs to find his control.

18. Collin McHugh | RHP | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 18th Round 2008 (6.0 B) – He is one of those guys that is tough to root against, so I couldn’t be happier that things finally started going his way last year. Doesn’t have the upside of others, but I think he might have a little bit of Dillon Gee in him.

19. Danny Muno | SS | SSA | Age – 22 | Drafted – 8th Round 2011 (6.0 B) – Was just a joy to watch play in Brooklyn. Plays the game the right way and has the look of a ballplayer out there. That is one of the only words to describe him—ballplayer. Fun fact: One of the only players to say, “What’s up” to me after the game in the hallways all season.

20. Domingo Tapia | RHP | SSA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2009 (8.0 D) – It is wild how few guys he is able to strikeout with his fastball, but he seems to have pretty good command for a young guy who can hit triple digits. Love the groundballs. Sky is the limit for him.

21. Chris Schwinden | RHP | MLB | Age – 25 | Drafted – 22nd Round 2008 (5.5 B) – I’ve liked him quiet a bit since the first time I watched him in Brooklyn and reaching the big leagues as a 22nd round pick already makes him a success

22. Matt Den Dekker | OF | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 5th Round 2010 (6.5 C) – Den Dekker showed a considerable more amount of pop than I thought he was capable of. The negative side is Double-A pitchers were able to exploit a hole in his swing that resulted in a worrisome strikeout rate. His defense is still his calling card.

23. Albert Cordero | C | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (7.0 C) – *SLEEPER ALERT* It is kind of strange that I dropped his in the rankings from last year and still placed the “sleeper” tag on him, but I think that is more a product of the rest of the system. He hit for a better average and more power the season went on. He just needs to start walking to become a complete player.

24. Aderlin Rodriguez | 3B | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (7.5 D) – The power was sensational. Unfortunately his defense and plate discipline are equally as unimpressive. This ranking might be a little harsh, but 78 errors in 210 games in horrific.

25. Darrell Cecilliani | OF | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 4th Round 2009 (6.5 C) – Plain and simple he needs to start showing a little more offense if he wants to project as anything more than a 4th outfielder.

26. Juan Urbina | LHP | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2009 (7.5 D) – I am actually slowing beginning to gain faith in Urbina. He is extremely young, projectable, and scouts love him I just want to see at least some respectable results first.

27. Logan Verrett | RHP | DNP | Age – 21 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2011 (6.5 C) – The reports all sound good and point to him being a solid yet unspectacular starter, I just want to see some data first.

28. Armando Rodriguez | RHP | HiA | Age – 24 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (6.0 C) – His stock had dropped after an injury-laden season, but he still had some pretty decent results. He still kept the hits down and strikeouts at a batter per inning pace, but the true test comes in Double-A this year.

29. Josh Edgin | LHP | HiA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 30th Round 2010 (5.5 B) – I love what he has done since being drafted. His upside is only a setup man and that might still be a stretch, but as Pedro Feliciano has shown, a good LOOGY has a ton of value.

30. Jack Leathersich | LHP | SSA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 5th Round 2011 (6.0 C) – Most people have Leathersich above Edgin, but that is because of what it called the shiny new toy syndrome. His upside is higher than Edgin, but the one who is closer to the majors gets the edge for me.

31. Jefry Marte | 3B | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2011 (7.0 D) – His Arizona Fall League performance was outstanding, but that was just 22 games and he underperformed over 131 games with St. Lucie. Like with Aderlin Rodriguez, I might be ranking him a bit too harshly, but I expected a lot more out of him by this point.

32. Zach Lutz | 3B | AAA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 5th Round 2007 (6.5 D) – His power makes him an interesting option and I hope the Mets at least give him a look in Spring Training, he just needs to stay on the field for more than half a season.

33. Josh Satin | 1B/3B | MLB | Age – 27 | Drafted – 6th Round 2008 (5.0 B) – I was driving the Satin bandwagon as hard as anyone and couldn’t be happier he at least got a cup of coffee. I still see him as a useful utility player.

34. Rafael Montero | RHP | SSA | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2011 (7.0 D) – *SLEEPER ALERT* I really like this kid. He came out of nowhere and really impressed on a scouting and statistical basis.

35. Bradley Marquez | SS/CF | DNP | Age – 19 | Drafted – 16th Round 2011 (7.5 D) – I can’t wait to see how he performs. Could turn into one of the Mets top prospects and can also completely flop on his face.

36. Greg Peavey | RHP | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 6th Round 2010 (6.5 C) – A personal favorite of mine, but he definitely disappointed in his first season. He was outstanding for Savannah, but his components really fell of during his first real test in St. Lucie.

37. Tyler Pill | RHP | SSA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 4th Round 2011 (6.0 C) – I think he compares very well to Greg Peavey in makeup and looked pretty good in brief action. Need to see at higher levels.

38. Gilbert Gomez | OF | HiA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (7.0 D) – He definitely has the tools to back up his 22 game performance in St. Lucie, BUT it was just 22 games and the rest of his track record makes it seem like a fluke.

39. Chase Huchingson | LHP | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – Undrafted 2010 (6.5 C) – I like his potential a little better than most and hope he gets a full season to start this year.

40. Taylor Whitenton | RHP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 39th Round 2009 (6.0 C) – He was terrific in 2011, HOWEVER, he was repeating the league and was on the older sign of players in the league. 2012 is an important year for him.

41. Erik Goeddel | RHP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 24th Round 2010 (7.0 D) – Things are going very similar with him to how they were with another Golden Bears’ Mets prospect *cough*Brant Rustich*cough*. He is very successful when healthy, but injuries have been a recurring theme for him going back to college.

42. Travis Taijeron | OF | SSA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 18th Round 2011 (6.5 D) – A super cool name and high power potential. Plate discipline will be his make or break point.

43. Juan Carlos Gamboa | SS | LoA | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2010 (5.5 C) – The diminutive shortstop has put up pretty damn good stats over the last two years and showed quiet a considerable amount of pop. His defense seems a little weak and he has a big load in his swing so I want to see how those two things affect his stats over a full season.

44. Camden Maron | C | LoA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 34th Round 2009 (5.5 C) – Is he “only” the next Josh Thole or does he take the next step forward and show us a little extra?

45. Angel Cuan | LHP | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (5.5 C) – He had excellent stats and his command is superb, but I have some fears he can go down the Yusmeiro Petit route.

46. Luis Mateo | RHP | DSL | Age – 21 | Drafted – IFA 2010 (7.0 D) – I really, really, really want to put Mateo higher, but I just can’t put a DSL player too much higher than this. His numbers were sensational even for being old for the league (a 1.15 FIP is ridiculous).

47. Joe Tuschak | OF | GCL | Age – 19 | Drafted – 6th Round 2011 (6.5 D) – His stats weren’t phenomenal, but he has the tools and cold weather players sometimes take a little bit longer to develop.

48. Robert Carson | LHP | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 14th Round 2007 (5.5 C) – His control has not gotten any better and as he has gone up the levels he has been hit harder. Losing all faith in him.

49. Brad Holt | RHP | AA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 1st Round 2008 (5.0 C) – He is here almost solely on pedigree and with the tiniest sliver of hope he is able to turn things around.

50. Robbie Shields | 2B | HiA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2009 (5.0 C) – I am just a fan of his so I decided to give him the last spot. Statistically speaking he really wasn’t that bad. However, he is getting older and will need to make advances fast.

Earlier today the Mets first decided to go overslot to sign 15th round selection Phillips Evans for $650,000. Evans is a shortstop from California high school who was thought to surely be attending San Diego State because of such a low round draft pick. According to Baseball America this was “the highest bonus ever paid by New York outside of the first two rounds”. Evans defense is in question, but has wowed people with his bat very recently.

Shortly after the Mets signed another shortstop, 16th round pick Brad Marquez, to a $325,000 bonus. Because Marquez is a two sport athlete the bonus will be spread out over three years. Marquez will also be allowed to continue to play football for Texas A&M with the Mets paying for his education. Marquez is a very exciting player with great speed.

…These are the types of signing that turns the Mets draft class from pretty good to very good. It is no guarantee either of these players will pan out and make it to the bigs, but these are two perfect examples of high reward risks. I thought there was a shot at Marquez, however, I felt the Mets had no shot at Evans. He is clearly the big splash of the later rounds. Now we wait for Brandon Nimmo to sign…

Scott asked:

I’m in a dynasty league minor league draft. I was hoping to get Matt Harvey but he went the pick before me. Can you rank or give advice on the available players? Who should I take? I have read all your site’s info on them, but I’m looking for a player who has serious impact/superstar potential. Leading towards Barnes since not the risk of Guerrerri but not sure.

- Taylor Jungmann
- Matt Barnes
- Taylor Guerrieri
- George Springer
- Deck McGuire
- Jed Bradley
- Makie Mahtook
- Robbie Erlin

Also, how close are the available players to Harvey? Is it worth packing my pick and a few others for Harvey (the guy knows I wanted him). Or even worth trading a first rd next year (i’m rebuilding so it will be a top 6 pick). My current farm holds: Matt Moore, Bubba Starling, Paul Goldschmidt, Wilmer Flores, Simon Castro, Trey McNutt, Jaff Decker, Josh Sale, Brett Jackson, Josh Reddick (on roster now).

First for the rankings of the players.

1. Robbie Erlin
2. George Springer
3. Matt Barnes
4. Taylor Guerrieri
5. Jed Bradley
6. Mikie Mahtook
7. Deck McGuire
8. Taylor Jungmann

Erlin’s upside may be a tick lower than Springer’s, Barnes’s, or Guerrierri’s, but he is more proven than them, already in Double-A, and performing well at 20-years-old. If you really wanted the superstar potential Springer would have been the best option because of his power and speed that should make him a good fantasy player or Guerrierri who has the highest upside of all the pitchers.

Erlin is very close to Matt Harvey in terms of current value, so I would have taken him instead of making a package to get Harvey unless it was just giving up a prospect like Simon Castro. When the list gets to Jed Bradley is where I see a big drop off. The first four are close enough to Harvey for me to keep that pick, but the other ones I would have stayed away from drafting.

I must say you have done a nice job with your farm system. With that farm and a top pick next year you shouldn’t be rebuilding too much longer. Matt Moore is the top pitching prospect and No. 2 in all of baseball in my opinion (I’ll take him over Trout). I am a huge Goldschmidt believer and Starling looks like a future stud. I would try to move one of the outfielders (Decker, Sale, Jackson, Reddick) for a starter unless you are already stacked at the big league level.

Pipe Dream Players

Tyler Thornburg, RHP – Was classified as a “Tim Lincecum wannabe” coming out of college. I have seen that term used a few times regarding 6’0″ and under pitchers in a condescending way and quiet frankly I do not understand why it is such a bad thing to try and emulate one of the most successful pitchers in baseball. Thornburg represented the Brewers in the Futures Game and hit 95 mph with his fastball. He also features a very good overhand curve. If the Mets somehow snagged him this would be a steal, but I don’t see it happening.

Wily Peralta, RHP – Husky pitcher with a 92-94 mph fastball that touches higher, good slider, and change. He has been great in Double-A this year outside of one month and with the Brewers lack of depth I can’t see them trading his arm.

Possible, But Unlikely

Eric Farris, 2B – A second baseman with plus speed (Stole 70 bases in 2009) who plays good defense. The Mets have their options at second base with Justin Turner, Ruben Tejada, and Daniel Murphy, but their never ending search for a franchise second baseman continues.

Kentrail Davis, OF – The Brewers first round supp. pick in the 2009 draft out of Tennessee. Davis tore up the Midwest League last year, but has struggled ever since his domotion to High-A midway through last year. Davis has plus speed and a short swing, but the power is not ideal for a corner outfielder.  Even with the struggles this year, the Brewers are unlikely to deal him just yet.

Plausible Prospects That Intrigue Me

Kyle Heckathorn, RHP – A big right-handed pitcher who loves picking up the groundballs. Doesn’t have great strikeout numbers, but his stuff isn’t that bad. He throws his sinker in the low 90′s, toughing 94 mph. In the past he has reached higher with his four-seamer. Also throws a changeup and slider that are not nearly on the same level as his sinker.

Khris Davis, OF – Wasn’t a top prospect at draft time, but has mashed. He has showed tremendous power and a good approach at the plate.

Hunter Morris, 1B – Not the best position to target. Still, he has performed well and a move to the outfield isn’t too far out of the question.

Caleb Gindl, OF – Doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, however, he has great pitch recognition and is extremely solid all-around.

Taylor Green, 3B – It feels like has been around forever and is still stuck in Triple-A. He knows how to hit, but I get a Daniel Murphy type feel from him.

“Those” Guys

Eric Arnett, RHP – The 2011 1st round pick is still stuck in rookie ball due to his erratic command. The stuff is still there and the command has shown improvements this year.

Mark Rogers, RHP – Another former 1st round pick whose stock is way down because of command issues. All about harnessing the stuff. Not sure if I would even want to touch him at this point.

The Mets liked Valdespin enough to bring him stateside in 2008 and put him on the GCL Mets, where he first really made a name for himself. Valdespin barely walked at all, but displayed a great ability to put the ball in play, hit for a higher average, and exhibited some power. His .289/.319/.440 line was a big improvement and he even saw some time at shortstop for the first time.

2009 was Valdespin’s first taste of full-season ball and it turned out to be a doozy of a season. Valdespin opened the year on the bench behind Josh Satin at second and Wilmer Flores at short, but he still got decent playing time and posted great numbers (finished the year .322/.366/.480 in Savannah). At times, however, he seemed to go disappearing and then got demoted with the reasoning being disciplinary action handed down by Tony Bernazard and the Mets front office. They never went into details of exactly why Valdespin was punished, but it sent up red flags about his make up. Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally came away less than impressed with Valdespin during his time with the Gants. On the field it was still another positive year for Valdespin, but the tension he created with the front office made it look like he would always be on the outside looking in.

Despite all of the disciplinary problems and broken bridges, Valdespin opened 2010 with St. Lucie and once again hit. His .289 average was good and while a .148 ISO is right around the league average, coming from a middle infield in the FSL it was a plus and showed once again why people were intrigued by Jordany’s bat. He found a way to lower his extremely low walk rate, but on the positive side struckout less than he had in ’09. He opened the year playing shortstop, but moved back to second to accomodate Flores after his promotion from Savannah. He was awful at short anyway with a .889 fielding percentage and poor range factor so the move to second looked like it was necessary. He got a callup to Binghamton towards the end of the year where he struggled to get going. His baserunning skills were the most disappointing stat of the year. For someone who was supposed to have above-average speed he was successful just 17 times in 29 attempts (59%), which doesn’t cut it from a top of the order threat. While was fast, it was apparent his skills were still raw despite being 22-years-old already. He went to the Arizona Fall League at the end of the year and posted an exceptional .355/.388/.461. He got his walk rate back to about his career average of 5% (still not good) and hit the cover off the all. The Mets saw enough to add him to the 40-man roster to keep him safe from the Rule V Draft.

2011 has been a complete revelation for Valdespin. He appeared in 10 games in spring training and really stood out with the bat hitting .333/.375/.733. He played second base and has a showed that pop with a double, triple, and homerun in 15 at-bats. The opening to his season in Binghamton wasn’t quiet as pleasant. He struggled out of the gate in April and while he got right back to his career numbers in May, he resorted back to his old ways in the bad sense too. He was pulled from the game and benched on June 2nd by Wally Backman for a lack of effort, but this very well could have been the turning point of his season and even career. In his first at-bat back from the benching on June 7th he hit a pinch hit homerun. It was right after this that Valdespin took off and has posted a .353/.386/.564 line since then over 34 games, with 8 of his 10 homeruns on the season coming at this time. It was shortly before this that the Mets moved Valdespin back to shortstop full-time. Baseball America believes this might have been what turned his season around. While his offensive numbers have been on another planet since the move, he has been a big liability in the field. He has committed 20 errors in 249 chances (.920%), although on the positive side his range factor isn’t that bad. And while he has had a bad recent stretch getting caught stealing four times in the last eight games, he has improved with his base stealing skills and has been successful 73% of the time.

Valdespin’s turnaround has been a shot in the arm for the Mets farm system and for the time being it looks like he has refined his raw tools to become a real ball player and not just an athlete. His walk rate is still worrisome, but he is striking out just 16.9% of the time. While they are slightly worse, they are not they far off from the BB% and K% of Jose Reyes who I think we can agree is one of the best top of the order threats in baseball. If Valdespin keeps producing like he has over this recent stretch there is every reason to believe he can be a viable replacement for Reyes, if he overcomes his maturity issues, God forbid Reyes sign elsewhere this off-season. Valdespin is no guarantee by any means and he still has a lot of work to do to become an MLB regular, but he has that kind of upside with the downside being a utility middle infielder who can come off the bench and provide a spark on the basepaths or at the plate.

It was already known that Cory Mazzoni signed for $437,500 and Danny Muno signed for just $10,000, Michael Fulmer‘s number is not out there yet, but the next highest price tag was 10th rounder Matt Budgell who signed for an overslot deal of $225,000. Following Budgell is 7th round pick Cole Frenzel who signed for $200,000 as a draft eligible sophomore. Jack Leathersich signed for a slot deal of $110,000 out of the 5th round.

That brings the confirmed bonuses up to $982,500 and when you account for Fulmer and the other signed players they are probably right around the $2,000,000 mark, which doesn’t count Joe Tuschak who announced he was going to sign. The Mets spent $4.7 million last year so Brandon Nimmo‘s bonus will put them right at that bonus and if they sign some of their overslot high school picks they will blow that number out of the water.

In his only season at Fresno Pacific Schwinden performed like the team’s ace and went 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA (28 runs/25 earned runs) in 13 starts. He threw three complete games and had a total of 90.2 innings in which he allowed just 63 hits and 22 walks, while setting a school record at the time with 96 strikeouts. The Mets took notice and he was drafted for a second time of his career in 2008 when he went in the 22nd round. Being a small school senior sign, he got an extremely small bonus that was barely enough to cover the cost of a wedding ring.

Schwinden was sent to Short-Season A Brooklyn Cyclones for the remainder of the 2008 season and started in the pen, but pitched his way into the rotation and wound up becoming one of the best pitchers on the staff. Among starters his 2.01 ERA was the second lowest just below Brad Holt and his 10.9 K/9 was again second best just behind Holt. He displayed outstanding command and led the team with a 1.7 BB/9 and a 5.83 K/BB.

He opened 2009 in Savannah and was in and out of the rotation until June when he earned a full-time role as a starter. He had a pretty solid season in the Sally, displaying outstanding command once again, but he did not wow anybody. He made 17 starts and posted a 3.28 ERA over 115.1 innings, although he got hit pretty hard. Batters posted a .297 batting average off him with 126 hits and his 88 strikeouts were very mediocre. He got a cup of coffee in St. Lucie at the end of the season and had one good start and one bad start.

Schwinden remained in St. Lucie briefly to open up 2010 before being promoted to Binghamton. While five of his seven appearances in St. Lucie were out of the bullpen he was pitching three to five innings  in relief and wound up going 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA. His time in Binghamton was not as pleasant to him. Over 17 appearances (14 starts) he got hit harder than ever before to the tune of a 4-7 record with a 5.56 ERA. His control held up and his K/9 even increased, but he averaged under five innings per start and hitters were even better against him with a .306 batting average against. His BABIP was extremely high at .365 and his FIP was much lower than his ERA at 3.64, yet he remained nothing more than an organizational filler.

He was set to repeat Binghamton in 2011 and made two appearances out of the bullpen, but when Dillon Gee was promoted to fill in for Chris Young Schwinden got a chance to make a spot start for Buffalo. Schwinden was magnificent in that game and struckout nine in five innings, while allowing just a run. Ever since then Schwinden stayed up in Buffalo, remained in the rotation, and has thrived.  In late May Schwinden had a 10-day layoff in between starts because the Mets needed him as insurance for R.A. Dickey, and the layoff appeared to affect him for a few starts, but he now looks to be back in form. He is having one of his best seasons at the moment with a 2.87 ERA in 15 starts spanning 87.2 innings and has pretty nice peripherals with a 30:75 BB:K. The walks are up and his BABIP is much lower than his career average, but his FIP is a solid 3.54.

There is every chance that this season is an apparition and his numbers will regress when his stats balance out, but I am not so sure that some of this success isn’t for real. Schwinden has been pitching away from contact more this year than I remember from his days in Buffalo and while his walk rates are up he is still commanding his pitches well.

He works mainly off a 88-91 mph fastball, topping out at 93 mph, that he is able to paint almost always on the black on either side of the plate. The fastball is a little straight for my liking, although he does get some nice arm side run when he elevates it in the zone to get some swings and misses. I have read a bunch of reports that state his changeup is his best secondary offering, but in my opinion the hammer curve is that pitch and his favorite to throw. It comes in mid-to-high 70′s and while at times the pitch can get a bit loopy when he leaves it high in the zone, when it is at its best he keeps it down in the zone and gets a late, hard 12-6 break. His changeup doesn’t get enough separation from his fastball and he leaves it up in the zone far too much to be a plus pitch, but it is still a serviceable third offering. While his slider doesn’t have a lot of break, it has tight movement at 85-87 mph and at times almost functions as a cutter. Although he doesn’t throw the pitch very often, he usually commands it well and keeps it down in the zone. He likes to throw it mostly to the left side of the plate and could benefit from starting it at right-handed hitter’s knees or trying to backdoor lefties.

While Schwinden isn’t the most overpowering pitcher on the planet, I do not like when people refer to him as not having enough “stuff” to get Major League hitters out. He is much like Gee, in that the overall command of his fastball and good off-speed pitch should be enough to keep hitters honest at the next level. In Gee’s case the pitch is a changeup, but for Schwinden it will be good old Uncle Charlie and being a guy who gets a lot of flyballs he could benefit greatly from pitching in Citi Field. He is still just a C prospect, but I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to have a Gee type of impact at some point this season or next.

1st Inning – As a Cal alum, how proud were you to see the team advance to the College World Series after nearly being forced to fold?

As a cal alum I was very proud of the team and their accomplishments this season. I’m still very close with the head coach there so I’m so happy that we were finally able to get over the hump and get to the college world series. Hopefully this recent run can help spark the program for some more consistent future success.

2nd Inning – You were drafted as a second baseman, but the Mets have used you all around the diamond. If you had to pick one position to play which would it be?

Although drafted as a second baseman I have played all over the diamond my whole career. I spent a year in college playing third, all of high school playing short stop, and 2 summer ball seasons in the cape playing first base. if I had to choose it would be which ever position gives me the best opportunity to make the big leagues.

3rd Inning – You recently hit for the cycle. Was that the first one you’ve hit and how good did it feel to slide into third base to complete it?

It was the first cycle of my entire career at any level so it was definitely a great feeling. Sliding into third was a thrill I might not ever feel again so it’s something I’ll remember for he rest of my life.

4th Inning – Briefly describe what it has been like to play under Wally Backman, who is known for having a colorful personality to say the least.

Wally has been great to play for. Before he season I had heard only great things about him as a manager so I had high hopes and he has exceeded them all. He brings so much energy everyday so it’s easy to play hard for him. He is dedicated to helping each of us get to the big leagues and has worked tirelessly with me at each of my positions. And although he is firey with umpires on the field, behind the scenes he always picks his players up even when they are struggling or cost the team a game.

5th Inning – Who has been the most difficult pitcher you have faced this year and which pitcher on the B-Mets would you least like to face?

Most difficult pitcher to face in the Eastern League is Brad Peacock and pitcher I would least like to face on the B-Mets is probably Rhiner Cruz. Rightly throwing sidearm at 98 not my ideal pitcher to face

6th Inning – If a scout was to watch you play over the course of a week what do you think his report would look like, or how would you hope it looked?

I would hope the scout says he plays the game hard first and foremost. Offensively I would hope they’d say I work counts and don’t swing at bad pitches. When I get my pitch I usually barrel it up. Hopefully they say I have good gap power with occasional home run power. Defensively I would hope they say I’m solid. Catch everything I get to and play as hard as I can.

7th Inning – Since your promotion to Binghamton last year, over what projects to be a full season (151 games), you have hit .310/.401/.492 with 46 doubles, 3 triples, 16 homeruns, driven in 88, and scored 90 runs. Those are some pretty remarkable numbers. You have clearly earned a promotion to Buffalo. Have the Mets made any indications to you when one will happen?

Thank you. They have not given me any indication. Just have to play hard everyday.

7th Inning Stretch – This is the off topic question. If you couldhave four tickets to any music concert, you have to take one family member, one teammate, one male celebrity, and one female celebrity, what concert do you go to and who do you take?

If I were to go to a concert, I would go to Kanye West. Male celebrity would be Justin Timberlake, female would be Blake Lively, teammate would be Eric Campbell, family member would be my brother Dylan.

I want to send a big thank you out to Josh and mention that he was one of three B-Mets just named to the Eastern League All-Star Game. Last year in the Florida State League All-Star Game he won the MVP with a game tying homerun and the game winning hit in extra innings.

Darin Gorski was a very successful college pitcher at Kutztown University, the same program that produced 2011 breakout pitcher Ryan Vogelsong. Gorski was a presence in the top Division II program since his freshman year when he went 4-0 with 2.63 ERA. He went on to finish his college career 20-6 with a 2.33 ERA in 200.2 innings while allowing just 163 hits, striking out 218 men, and walking just 66 batters. He was considered a pitchability lefty who threw 86-88 mph, touching 89-90 mph, despite having a big frame at 6’4″ 215 lbs. His slider was considered an average to slightly above-average pitch, he had a good feel for his change up, and could locate all his pitches well. The Mets liked him enough to nab him in the 7th round of the 2009 First-Year Player Draft and signed him to a bonus worth $118,000.

After signing in 2009 Gorski was assigned to the Short-Season A Brooklyn and didn’t pitch too well considering the environment he was in. He appeared in 13 games, making 11 starts, and posted a 3-4 record with a 4.91 ERA over 62.1 innings. The command was pretty good as advertised, but he did not strikeout batters as well as he had in college. He went into 2010 as a virtual non-prospect among prospecting circles.

In his first full season in 2010 Gorski was less than impressive. He got into 25 games with the Savannah Sand Gnats, starting 18, and went 6-8 with a 4.58 ERA. The peripherals improved as he was striking out more batters (7.22 K/9 to 8.61 K/9) and he improved his control by a small margin. Hitters hit him pretty hard and he allowed 125 hits in 114 innings, which was good for a .280 batting average against. His groundball percentage went from being pretty good in 2009 at 45% to a mediocre 38% with Savannah. As the season went on the results got worse and it was a bit concerning that he didn’t have the ability to make the necessary adjustments. He remained unnoticed by most for good reason.

Fast forward to 2011 and it has been a completely different story. Gorski started the year in the St. Lucie bullpen, but after excelling during his first five appearances he was promoted to the rotation. The 10 starts he has made since then (one was a five inning “relief” appearance because Bobby Parnell pitched the first inning in a rehab game) have been spectacular and Gorski has gone 5-0 with a sparkling 1.09 ERA. The strikeouts have taken a huge increase over that time with 68 strikeouts in just 57.2 innings and the command has even improved significantly. His overall stat line looks like this: 5-0, 1.57 ERA, 68.2 IP, 54 H, 15 R, 12 ER, 15 BB, 82 SO, 43 GB%. Gorski has been able to make improvements in just about every statistical category thanks to some work with St. Lucie pitching coach Phil Regan.

There have been varying reports on Gorski, but they all say he is throwing harder than when he was drafted. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says that Gorski made some mechanical changes and is up to 90-93 mph and calling it a plus pitch. Keith Law, however, said on Twitter that he spoke to a scout who said 87-91 mph. Gorski is known for having deception on his fastball so no matter which one is right both velocities would play up making it a good pitch for a lefty. Goldstein’s report seems to match up better with the results Gorski is putting up, but Law’s report seems more realistic. His slider is becoming the plus pitch that many expected and the change up is playing as it always had. Another big key for Gorski is that the mechanical changes he made has enable him to keep the ball down in the zone more often and resulting in less damage.

Right now I have Gorski as a C+ prospect and the Mets 17th best prospect, but if he gets his promotion to Binghamton and keeps this performance up he will become a B- by the end of the year.