Archive for Nicholas Pugliese
Law Confident Familia Won’t Start
Posted by: | CommentsYes more Law news for the day.
I just came across this article from Law from a few days ago where he listed his players who just missed the top 100. Mets pitching prospect Jeurys Familia made the list and Law had this to say regarding the flame thrower:
Jeurys Familia, RHP: If I thought there was any chance he could start, he would have made the list, but he’s headed for the bullpen with a plus fastball and not enough command or secondary stuff to remain in the rotation. The real gap in expected values between him and some of the likely relievers on my top 100, such as Dellin Betances or Addison Reed, isn’t as big as the ranking gap might make it seem, given how volatile reliever performances can be.
Those are some pretty strong words from Law.
The fact that Familia has been successful as a starter through Double-A means he has some chance to stick in the rotation. Law isn’t the first person to express the opinion that Familia is a reliever long term, but he is one of the first I’ve seen that feels he has zero shot at the rotation.
As long as the Mets keep running Familia out there as a starter, his managers keep saying he can start, and his off-speed pitches continue to improve, like they did last year, then I am going to continue to believe he has a shot at being a starter. It is probably 40/60 at this point, but those odds are not all that bad and he is an adjustment or two away from being a dominant starter so to knock him off solely on that belief is weak in my opinion.
Law Call Tapia Mets Top Sleeper Prospect
Posted by: | CommentsKeith Law released a list of the top sleeper prospect in each organization (subscriber required), stating these are players who he thinks can take the step forward and become top 100 prospects by 2013, and in most cases top 50 prospects. For the Mets he went with the flamethrower from the Dominican Republic. He had this to say regarding Domingo Tapia:
Right-hander Domingo Tapia is 6-foot-5 and hits triple digits as a starter with some sink on the pitch. He pairs it with a solid to above-average changeup that produced a reverse split in his 50 innings in Kingsport last year. He’ll need a more consistent breaking ball to project as a top-end starter, but the velocity and changeup are a good start.
Law had Tapia ranked 7th on his top 10 Mets prospect list so this pick shouldn’t come as much of a surprise since he must 
really like Tapia. I had Tapia 20th on my personal top 50, Petey Pete had him at 21st, John Sickels had him at 17th, Toby Hyde has him at least in the top 20 so we all appeared to be in the same ballpark, but Law has taken the extra leap of faith.
Do I think it is crazy to have Tapia ranked that high? No, not at all. It is hard not to fall in love with a player with a mid-90′s fastball, that touches triple digits, and with sink. It just boggles my mind how he only struck out 5.8 per nine innings in the lower levels of the minors. Those are supposed to be the levels where you are supposed to be able to succeed with a slightly above-average fastball and Tapia has a true plus-fastball, which leads me to believe his breaking stuff must be really, really bad.
Mets fans actually got a little bonus in the article because Law mentioned how he did not want to repeat sleepers from last year, but wanted to give an extra vote of confidence in Akeel Morris.
Top 50 In Depth: No. 49 – Brad Holt
Posted by: | CommentsBirthdate: 10/13/1986 (25-years-old)
Height/Weight: 6’4” / 194 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right / Right
Drafted: 1st Round (33rd overall) in 2008
College: University of North Carolina, Wilmington
Position: RP
Top Level in 2011: AA – Binghamton Mets
2011 Rank: 22
2011 Season:
2011 was a very lackadaisical season from the former top 100 prospect. He opened the year in the Binghamton rotation and made 13 starts with very poor results. He posted a 5.03 ERA and more alarmingly had a 42:39 BB:SO ratio, seeming to have a carry over from last year. The Mets moved him into the bullpen and things almsot immediately looked better.
He made eight appearances out of the pen in July and looked like the old Brad Holt, posting a 2:13 BB:SO ratio in 12 innings while giving up just seven hits. The ERA was still just 4.50, but his FIP for the month was a much improved 2.62. August came around and he resorted back to being the same guy he has been over the last two years with seven walks in 15.2 innings.
Summary:
You have to give him some credit for bouncing back somewhat from the atrocious 2010 (3-14, 8.34). However, he is already 25-years-old and has lost a tick on his fastball, but MAYBE there is a chance he makes it as a middle reliever. Not the number two or three starter we once envisioned, but it is better than being a minor league burnout.
Here is my question about Holt:
The left one is Holt back in 2008 (when he was good) and the right one is him last year (when he sucked).
Now I understand the conventional wisdom is to have a relief pitcher throw out of the stretch all the time, but he looks so uncomfortable out of the stretch. Check out this video of him throwing a warm up pitch for more evidence. He seems to lose his fluidity when using the low leg kick. Again here is another video to back my point up. I saw some decent breaking balls and a nice changeup while he was using the high leg kick and when they show him pitching with the low leg kick what happened? He pegged it right into the dirt. If I am the Mets I have him using his full wind up out of the pen and see if it helps him regain any of his control.
Final Grade: 5.0D-4.5C
Mets Affiliate Forced Out of Binghamton, Move to New Britain?
Posted by: | CommentsAdam Rubin of ESPN NY is reporting the Binghamton, the Mets Double-A affiliate, is being purchased by a new owner and being moved to Ottawa in 2013. It is expected they will not re-partner with the Mets and instead they will likely become the affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays, makes total sense.
As a result Rubin is hearing that the Minnesota Twins could move to New Hampshire, where the Blue Jays currently play, and then the Mets would take over the affiliate in New Britain, Connecticut where the Twins play.
The Mets had been affiliated with Binghamton since 1992, but minor league affiliates change all the time and this is not really a big deal and I d no’t think it could work out any better if what Rubin is hearing happens.
For me at least, Binghamton is a VERY far way to go to watch baseball games and if they make the move to Connecticut I will be able to go watch many more games live. I am keeping my fingers crossed right now that nothing crazy happens and these moves take place.
This is like Christmas in February.
Scott Moviel and Dock Doyle Suspended
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Since being drafted in the 2nd round of 2007, Scott Moviel has gone 22-32 with a 4.60 ERA while walking 3.1 per nine inning and striking out 6.3 per nine innings.
Despite reaching St. Lucie in 2008 he has been stuck there for the last four years. There were high hopes for the 6’11″ behemoth, but he has been a large disappointment (pun intended).
★★★★
When Dock Doyle was drafted in the 5th round in 2008 he had some moderate expectations and it looked like he could move through the system fairly quickly, but things have gone in the complete opposite direction.
He has played in just 175 games posting a .271/.355/.344 with just three homeruns and 65 RBIs, while not making it past St. Lucie.
Neither one of these guys was going to become anything bearing a miracle and these suspensions could be the final nail in the coffin in their career.
Top 50 In Depth: No. 50 – Robbie Shields
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Birthdate: 12/07/1987 (24-years-old)
Height/Weight: 6’1” / 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: Right / Right
Drafted: 3rd Round (103rd overall) in 2009
College: Florida Southern College
Position: 2B
Top Level in 2011: HiA – St. Lucie Mets
2011 Rank: 30
2011 Season:
Shields spent the majority of his 2011 season at Savannah, but saw some time later in the year for St. Lucie. Unfortunately, injuries got the best of him again, as issues with his back allowed him to play in just 80 games combined between the two levels.
When he was on the field he produced. He showed pretty good pop for a middle infielder (33 extra base hits) and as he continues to build up strength following the TJS that number should only imrpove. He was old for LoA so his plate discipline there does not mean much there, but it held up with the promotion to St. Lucie and even slightly improved, granted it was a very small sample size.
His triple slash line was better than the league average in the Sally (.274/.354/.425 to .260/.332/.392) and he was at the league average in the FSL (.258/.328/.379 to .261/.330/.385) so it would be nice to see the kind of numbers he could put up over a full, healthy season.
He lost some positional value with the switch to second, but he put up good numbers defensively after the switch and should be more than adequate at the position so I do not see that as a big deal.
Summary:
There was a time when Shields was considered just behind Grant Green for the top shortstop in college baseball. That time seems like an eternity ago. A sub-par junior season, Tommy John surgery, and a position change now leave him as a fringe prospect at best.
The fact that the organization took their time pushing Josh Satin through the system makes me think they might try and do the same with Shields, although I do not agree with the decision. He should open 2012 as St. Lucie’s starting second baseman and if he proves healthy and puts up good number through the first month of the season I would not hesitate to promote him to Binghamton.
Final Grade: 5.0C – 4.0C (The first grade shows their perfect world ceiling and the second grade is more realistic expectations)
MLB.com REALLY Likes Rafael Montero
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I was checking out MLB.com’s Mets top 20 prospect watch and was absolutely shocked to see Rafael Montero in the top 20, let alone all the way up at number 10.
This is an extremely aggressive ranking and sort of takes the wind out of the “sleeper alert’ I placed on Montero.
It is really tough for me to envision how Montero is a better prospect than Kirk Nieuwenhuis under any circumstances at this point in their career.
There is plenty to love with Montero, but the Mets are going to need to be ultra aggressive with him because he is already 21-years-old and has just one year of professional baseball under his belt. It was a terrific rise last year and still feel it is comparable to Jenrry Mejia‘s so MLB.com could just be hoping lightning strikes twice in the Mets organization.
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