Name: Nicholas

Email:

Web Site: http://www.minimetspipeline.com

AIM: NickPugs97

Bio: Nicholas Pugliese is a student at UMass-Amherst and honorary Washington Nationals fan until Fred Wilpon sells the team. He writes for Mets Merized Online as well as The Stirring Straw (a Yankees blog).

Posts by Nicholas Pugliese:

Top 50 In Depth: No. 50 – Robbie Shields

February 9th, 2012



Birthdate: 12/07/1987 (24-years-old)
Height/Weight:  6’1” / 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws:  Right / Right
Drafted:  3rd Round (103rd overall) in 2009
College: Florida Southern College
Position: 2B
Top Level in 2011: HiA – St. Lucie Mets


2011 Rank: 30

2011 Season:

Shields spent the majority of his 2011 season at Savannah, but saw some time later in the year for St. Lucie. Unfortunately, injuries got the best of him again, as issues with his back allowed him to play in just 80 games combined between the two levels.

When he was on the field he produced. He showed pretty good pop for a middle infielder (33 extra base hits) and as he continues to build up strength following the TJS that number should only imrpove. He was old for LoA so his plate discipline there does not mean much there, but it held up with the promotion to St. Lucie and even slightly improved, granted it was a very small sample size.

His triple slash line was better than the league average in the Sally (.274/.354/.425 to .260/.332/.392) and he was at the league average in the FSL (.258/.328/.379 to .261/.330/.385) so it would be nice to see the kind of numbers he could put up over a full, healthy season.

He lost some positional value with the switch to second, but he put up good numbers defensively after the switch and should be more than adequate at the position so I do not see that as a big deal.

Summary:

There was a time when Shields was considered just behind Grant Green for the top shortstop in college baseball. That time seems like an eternity ago. A sub-par junior season, Tommy John surgery, and a position change now leave him as a fringe prospect at best.

The fact that the organization took their time pushing Josh Satin through the system makes me think they might try and do the same with Shields, although I do not agree with the decision. He should open 2012 as St. Lucie’s starting second baseman and if he proves healthy and puts up good number through the first month of the season I would not hesitate to promote him to Binghamton.

Final Grade: 5.0C – 4.0C (The first grade shows their perfect world ceiling and the second grade is more realistic expectations)

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MLB.com REALLY Likes Rafael Montero

February 8th, 2012



I was checking out MLB.com’s Mets top 20 prospect watch and was absolutely shocked to see Rafael Montero in the top 20, let alone all the way up at number 10.

This is an extremely aggressive ranking and sort of takes the wind out of the “sleeper alert’ I placed on Montero.

It is really tough for me to envision how Montero is a better prospect than Kirk Nieuwenhuis under any circumstances at this point in their career.

There is plenty to love with Montero, but the Mets are going to need to be ultra aggressive with him because he is already 21-years-old and has just one year of professional baseball under his belt. It was a terrific rise last year and still feel it is comparable to Jenrry Mejia‘s so MLB.com could just be hoping lightning strikes twice in the Mets organization.

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Grading the Omar Regime: The 2004-2005 Off-Season

February 7th, 2012

To see the full effects of the changes made in the off-season by Omar we must first take a quick look at the 2004 New York Mets. In 2004 the Mets GM was Jim Duquette, the manager was Art Howe, and the team finished 4th in the NL East with a 71-91 record.

Opening Day Lineup: Kaz Matsui (SS), Ricky Gutierrez (2B), Cliff Floyd (LF), Mike Piazza (C), Mike Cameron (CF), Jason Phillips (1B), Karim Garcia (RF), Ty Wigginton (3B), and had Tom Glavine on the mound.

Season Finale Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Kaz Matsui (2B), David Wright (3B), Piazza (1B), Cameron (CF), Eric Valent (LF), Victor Diaz (RF), and Todd Zeile (C).

List of Pitchers to Make a Start on the Team: Tom Glavine (33), Steve Trachsel (33), Al Leiter (30), Jae Seo (21), Matt Ginter (14), Kris Benson (11), Tyler Yates (7), Aaron Heilman (5), Victor Zambrano (3), James Baldwin (2), Scott Erickson (2), Dan Wheeler (1).

List of Pitchers to Make a Relief Appearance (min. 5): Mike Stanton (83), Braden Looper (71), Ricky Bottalico (60), John Franco (52), Orber Moreno (33), David Weather (32), Dan Wheeler (31), Pedro Feliciano (22), Heath Bell (17), Mike DeJean (17), Bartolome Fortunato (15), Tyler Yates (14), Jose Parra (13), Vic Darensbourg (5).

Offensive Leaders (min. 150 at-bats): AVG – D. Wright (.293); SLG – D. Wright (.525), OBP – M. Piazza (.362), HR – M. Cameron (30), RBI – M. Cameron (76), SB – M. Cameron (22), R – M. Cameron (76).

Pitching Leaders (min 50 IP): IP – T. Glavine (212.1), ERA – B. Looper (2.70), W – S. Trachsel (12), L – T. Glavine (14), SV –  B. Looper (29), SO – S. Trachsel & A. Leiter (117), CG/SHO – K. Benson & T. Glavine (1)

Wow. If there is one word to sum up this team it would be sorry—despite the fact they had a payroll of $96.7 million. The team was cluttered with aging veterans and marginal role players, while the starting rotation was being anchored by a 39-year-old on his last leg and a 33-year-old No. 5 starter who was known more for his ability to make a game last forever above all else.

If I was to point out any bright spots I would say the bullpen looks like it wasn’t awful and by the end of the year things looked pretty exciting with the emergence of two young kids named Reyes and Wright, who you may have heard of.

Other than those two, it looks like is Omar did not have much to work with when taking over this team. Duquette had shipped away the team’s top prospect for a bad pitcher(the Mets were just six games back of the division lead at the time), the outfield was a mess outside of Cameron, there were questions about where Piazza could play defensively, and the starting rotation needed help in the worst way possible.

I will be grading all of the moves individually on their long term value and then grading Omar on how well he did to help the Mets for the 2005 season alone. Now onto the off-season…

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Off-Season Moves:

• The Mets changed the whole coaching staff (except Rick Peterson) and hired Willie Randolph, Manny Acta, Jerry Manuel, Sandy Alomar, Guy Conti, Rick Down, and Tom Nieto.
• Minaya declined the $10 million dollar option on Al Leiter.
• Signed Juan Padilla (league minimum).
• Re-signed Kris Benson to a three-year, $22.5 million contract.
• Traded Mike Stanton to the New York Yankees for Felix Heredia.
• Signed Mike DeJean to a one-year, $1.15 million contract.
• Signed Ramon Castro to a minor league contract.
• Signed a 33-year-old Pedro Martinez to a four-year, $53 million contract.
• Signed Chris Woodward to a two-year, $1.525 million contract.
• Traded Vance Wilson to the Detroit Tigers for Anderson Hernandez.
• Signed Marlon Anderson.
• Signed Miguel Cairo to a one-year, $900,000 contract.
• Singed Dae-Sung Koo to a one-year, $425,000 contract.
• Signed a 27-year-old Carlos Beltran to a seven-year and $119 million contract.
• Signed Roberto Hernandez to a one-year, $600,000 contract.
• Traded Ian Baldergroen to the Boston Red Sox for Doug Mientkiwicz and cash.
• Traded Jason Phillips to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Kaz Ishii.

Trades

The Good:

• Ian Baldergroen for Doug Mientkiwicz: After losing out on the Carlos Delgado sweepstakes the Mets were left with a hole at first base and Mientkiwicz was a respectable option because of his defensive wizadry. Although he wasn’t great with the Mets, and ultimately got replaced by a rookie Mike Jacobs, Mientkiwicz was a cheap stop gap for the Mets and Baldergroen never made it past HiA so it would be hard to consider this a loss.

The Bad:

• Mike Stanton for Felix Heredia: Stanton wasn’t very effective for the Yankees, but following his release and signing with the Nationals he was a very effective reliever, while Heredia made three appearances and then went on the disabled list for the rest of the year.

The Meh:

• Vance Wilson for Anderon Hernandez: Neither player made very many appearances for their new team and neither were very effective in those appearances.
• Jason Phillips for Kaz Ishii: Phillips posted a -0.9 WAR and Ishii posted a -0.2 WAR. So I guess technically the Mets got the lesser of two evils.

Grade: C+

Omar didn’t make any crippling trades, but also only made the Mets insignificantly better. Essentially a push.

Minor Free Agents

The Good:

• (Declining) Al Leiter: Leiter jumped over to the Marlins on a one-year $8 million dollar deal and turned into a complete bust. He was DFA in the middle of the year and picked up by the Yankees. Leiter wound up finishing the year 7-12 with a 6.13 ERA.
• Juan Padilla: Had an outstanding year in 2005 while playing for the league minimum, unfortunately he needed Tommy John surgery and never rebounded.
• Ramon Castro: Omar took a shot on the former top prospect who had some off the field issues, wasn’t expected to even make the team, and then he went on to become the Mets long time backup catcher.
• Marlon Anderson: Did a terrific job to hit over .300 as a pinch hitter. Anytime you can get that kind of production off the bench you take it.
• Miguel Cairo: If you go solely by the numbers his season was subpar. However, Cairo does so many things well for a ballclub that cannot be judged on a scoresheet.
• Dae-Sung Koo: Although he walked too many, he was a respectable lefty reliever and will forever be immortalized for the only hit and run scored in his career.
• Roberto Hernandez: No one expected anything from Hernandez and he went on to have one of the best years of his career at 40-years-old. Biggest shock/bargain of the season.

The Bad:

• Mike DeJean: The Mets tossed a million dollars his way and released him by June because of ineffectiveness.

The Meh:

• Kris Benson: His career with Mets only lasted through 2005, but the Mets were the recipients of Benson’s most effective seasons. If the Mets held onto beyond 2005, there is a great chance I would have in “the bad” section which made me unsure where to place this signing.
• Chris Woodward: His 2005 was very good, his 2006 not so good. Could say he earned every penny by being an average super utility man.

Grade: A-

2005 was a terrific year for Omar in finding role players. As the saying goes, you are only as strong as your weakest link so the ability to find contributing guys off the bench and in the bullpen cannot be overstated.

Blockbuster Moves

Pedro Martinez: This one is so hard for me too grade objectively. Pedro is my favorite player of all-time and from the minute he agreed to a deal he could do no wrong in my eyes.

Martinez delivered in 2005 and was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He carried that success over into 2006 and it wasn’t until that flukey incident against the Marlins when he was asked to go change his shirt because “his sleeves were too shiny” that he slipped in the dugout and injured his hip, which contributed to a series of injuries and Martinez making just 45 starts over the next two and a half years.

Statistically speaking Martinez only earned $33.3 million of the $53 million based on sabermetrics. He had shoulder injuries before signing the contract and the Mets best competition for his services was a three-year $40.5 million offer from the Red Sox so they did overpay a little for him. For those reasons I cannot give Omar anything above a B for this signing.

As much as fans like to refute this idea, the signing of Pedro did have an affect on the culture of the Mets. When Beltran signed with the Mets there were reports that Pedro coming to the Mets (along with $117 million) influenced Beltran to go to the Mets and it increased the Mets’ presence with international free agent in the Dominican Republic. Anyone who was a Mets fan at this time cannot deny the excitement Martinez brought back to the franchise after a few down years the 2000 Subway Series. Mike Steffanos noted following the 2005 season, “Martinez proved to be worth every penny, putting fannies in the seats and creating a buzz every time he took the hill.” That cannot be stated enough.

He was a bit of a disappointment and his health could have had an effected on the outcome on a few heartbreaking memories from this era, but I just can’t bring myself to call the signing of Pedro a complete bust.

Over the four-year contract Martinez went 32–23 in 79 starts, with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.

Grade: C+

Carlos Beltran: Things got off to a rocky start with Beltran in a Mets uniform. The reports said that he “allegedly” offered himself to the Yankees for a discount and settled for the Mets, which obviously did not sit well with fans. He then added on to the disdain with a mediocre season after being awarded all that money and it left a sour taste the mouth of the fans.

Beltran responded with one of the all-time great Mets seasons in 2006 that helped carry them all the way to the NLCS. Unfortunately Beltran will be remembered by all Mets fans for that flinch and freeze on an Adam Wainright curveball to end the season. It was a legacy defining moment, but outside of that moment Beltran’s Mets career was a success.

By the numbers he was worth $127.4 million so the Mets got their money’s worth out of him, despite Beltran battling with chronic injuries for the better part of two years. Ed Leyro did a marvelous job proving that Beltran was one of the best players in the history 0f the Mets franchise. Definitely worth the read to understand how great of a signing this was.

Beltran batted .280/.369/.500 with 149 homeruns, 550 RBIs, and 100 stolen bases over the seven years with the Mets, while earning five All-Star appearances, three Gold Gloves, and two Silver Sluggers.

Grade: A-

Summary/Overall

The Mets improved by 12 games in 2005 to finish with a record over .500 at 83-79. They finished 3rd in the NL East and were just six games back of the Wild Card. It was a dramatic turn around from 21 games back of the wild card in 2004.

Opening Day Lineup: Jose Reyes (SS), Kaz Matsui (2B), Carlos Beltran (CF), Mike Piazza (C), Cliff Floyd (LF), Doug Mientkiewicz (1B), David Wright (3B), Eric Valent (RF), and had Pedro Martinez on the mound.

List of Pitchers to Make a Start on the Team: Tom Glavine (33), Pedro Martinez (31), Kris Benson (28), Victor Zambrano (27), Kaz Ishii (16), Jae Seo (14), Aaron Heilman (7), Steve Trachsel (6).

List of Pitchers to Make a Relief Appearance (min. 5): Roberto Hernandez (67), Braden Looper (60), Aaron Heilman (46), Heath Bell (42), Dae-Sung Koo (33), Mike DeJean (28), Juan Padilla (24), Manny Aybar (22), Danny Graves (20), Royce Ring (15), Shingo Takatsu (9), Tim Hamulack (6), Mike Matthews (6).

Offensive Leaders (min. 150 at-bats): AVG - D. Wright (.306); SLG - D. Wright (.523), OBP - D. Wright (.388), HR - C. Floyd (34), RBI - M. Cameron (102), SB - M. Cameron (60), R - D. Wright & J. Reyes (99).

Pitching Leaders (min 50 IP): IP - P. Martinez (217.0), ERA - R. Hernandez (2.58), W -P. Martinez (15), L - T. Glavine (13), SV -  B. Looper (28), SO - P. Martinez (208), CG - P. Martinez (4), SHO – P. Martinez, T. Glavine, & A. Heilman (1).

While Willie Randolph wore out his welcome fast, I don’t think he was necessarily a terrible manager and if there was one mistake I think Omar made with the coaching staff it was keeping Rick Peterson around. I am sorry, but I think he did more harm than good when he was trying to “fix” young pitchers.

Thinking back to my time as a fan during 2005, I was extremely excited by the future of the team. Omar did a terrific job during his first off-season to bring in marquee names to compliment the young, upcoming players already on the roster who were ready breakout. It was perfect timing to try and start something bigger.

The starting pitching was a major issue in 2004 and he went out and brought in a first ballot Hall of Fame pitcher who served as a Cy Young candidate in 2005.

Seeing the moves he made I think he deserves more credit for the Mets’ success in 2005 than I originally thought he would.

Grade: B+

It was a great off-season for the Mets franchise.

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Am I Too Low On Wilfredo Tovar?

February 7th, 2012

I recently put together my top 50 prospects for 2012 and left 20-year-old SS/2B prospect Wilfredo Tovar off the list. He was a strong consideration for the back end of the list, but I was too scared by his low average and lack of power to include him.

Toby Hyde at Mets Minor League Blog is putting together his top 41 prospects and ranked Tovar No. 29 overall stating:

Tovar moves up a few spots from last year because 1. He’s the best defensive shortstop in the system and 2. He improved offensively, and in particular, became much more patient at the plate and 3. He only turned 20 last August.

Then in a video talking about the Mets Frankie Piliere of Scout.com when asked who he liked in the Mets system he stated that, while he is not the biggest name, Tovar is one of his favorites and a name to watch.

I respect Hyde and Piliere’s opinions a lot so their stances have me considering changing my own stance on Tovar.

I might be discounting his defense too much because his defense is likely going to help him find a way onto a big league roster at some point and that kind of ability cannot be overlooked.

His numbers slightly regressed in 2011 at Savannah and even though he is just 19-years-old there really isn’t much reason to assume he will improve offensively. He already has an advanced approach at the plate and he will always be punchless. This is a really tough situation for me because I don’t have faith in his bat coming around, which could turn him into a Wilson Valdez-esque player.

Still is that not more valuable than a 24-year-old in HiA who is learning a new position and is not all that likely to reach the majors?

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Mets Leadoff Hitter, Is It Really A Debate?

February 6th, 2012

Over at Mets Today Joe Janish tries to answer the question of who should be the Mets leadoff hitter now that Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan are gone.

He looks at the players ability to get on base and their ability to maneuver around the base paths, and comes to the conclusion that the Mets might be best to go ths unconventional route and use Jason Bay because of the lack of other options. It is a very difficult question to answer and an even more compelling solution so I wanted to give my own outlook on the situation.

I took a look at the career numbers of every player who hit leadoff during the MLB games from July 1st-3rd, 2011. There was no real rhyme or reason for the dates I picked, but I wound up with the numbers of 41 different players to compare the Mets projected starting eight with.

I was actually shocked with how low the overall OBP the 41 leadoff men had.

.328 is a pretty low number on-base percentage for a leadoff hitter and as the graph shows only one of the Mets projected starters is below that number. The ironic part is that Andres Torres has the most leadoff experience of anyone on the Mets. His career OBP is only .318, but this number was greatly effected by his 2011 season where he batted only .221 with a .312 OBP. In 2009 and 2010 he posted an OBP of .343. I am going to come back to this point later on.

I also wanted to go a little new school at take a look at a sabermetric stat that theoretically is just as important to look at for a leadoff hitter as OBP is.


According to Tom Tango the average hitter should have a .340 wOBA, but the leadoff hitters from the sample averaged just a .319 wOBA. Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole were the only two Mets to fall below that number and both happened to be listed as finalists by Janish for the leadoff spot.

With wOBA as with OBP,  David Wright and Jason Bay are right at the top of the list. Janish’s proposal to use an unconventional leadoff hitter looks extremely plausible with these numbers. Both have been the Mets best and most efficient hitters at getting on base over their career and both have respectable speed. After all, as kids the best hitter always bats first and their power would not be a complete waste because they are only guaranteed to come up with the bases empty once a game.

Alden Gonzalez recently tried to point out all eight teams that made the playoffs last year had unconventional leadoff men, but looking at the list the only Corey Hart and Ian Kinsler (and maybe Derek Jeter) are truly unconventional leadoff hitters in my opinion. With that said, those two actually have a relatively similar offensive skill set to Bay and Wright. I would be lying if I said the idea didn’t intrigue me at all.

It is that only other player I’ve really mentioned in this article that I think makes that intriguing idea obsolete.

Neither Bay or Wright have experience at hitting leadoff. For me that is a big deal. It is not so easy to spontaneously change the approach you have used your whole career and start setting the tone at the beginning of a game by watching more pitches than you are used to instead of jumping on the first good pitch you see. Add in the fact that you have two veteran players who have been shaky (to put it kindly) the last few years and I think this is the type of change that can only do more harm than good.

The only player who really has logged a significant amount of  hitting leadoff in the majors is the guy who the Mets got back for Angel Pagan—Andres Torres.

As I spoke about earlier Torres’s OBP dropped by .030 points last year fueled by a .050 point drop off in his batting average. The cause for the drop off in his average? Well looking at the numbers it seems like his achilles injury could have had a big part to do with it.

For his career his numbers have been equal hitting from either side of the plate. When he injured his left foot (his plant foot) in 2011 his numbers from the right side dropped off dramatically, while from the left side he only had a marginally small drop off in power. The injury looks to have caused him an inability to drive the ball with authority, which is why his line drive rate fell and consequently his BABIP.

Normally I am not a huge believer in BABIP being a tremendously reliable stat to look at, but Torres slightly improved his walk rate in 2011 and didn’t have any significant increase in strikeouts, so other than the injury being a contributing factor to a lack of power I do not see an obvious reason for his poor season.

Without Reyes the Mets have no perfect leadoff man. What they do have is a man who hit leadoff for a team that won the World Series. He is an aging player yes, but he has patience and is easily the fastest man in the Mets starting eight. Janish made a compelling case to go the unconventional route, but he left Torres out of his argument and that is why I don’t think is much of a debate. As long as Torres was able to heal 100 percent over the off-season and can produce in 2012 like he did in 2009 and 2010, then the leadoff position won’t be a major concern for the Mets in 2012 at least.

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OT: Super Bowl Discussion

February 5th, 2012



It is close to being that time folks. After the most improbable of runs our New York ‘football’ Giants have found their way into the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots (Boo!). It is their first Super Bowl birth since victory and “the catch” against, who else besides, the Patriots.

Now anyone reading this most likely knew all of that, but as a Giants fan it is great to think and remember that play and Super Bowl as much as possible.

The story of how I became a Giants fan is quiet interesting.

It all goes back to when I was in second grade. My grammar school was hosting a football jersey dress down day and owning only Mets and Rangers jerseys, I had to decide which football team’s jersey I wanted to get. So I went up to my father and asked, “Dad who do you like better the Giants or the Jets?” He paused and said, “Ummmm, If I had to pick, the Giants!”…

Okay, it might not be an interesting story but it is my story nonetheless. In retrospect his decision wasn’t very definitive and there really wasn’t much enthusiasm in his tone when he answered, but it just goes to show the impact and importance of a father on a son.

Now in college, I am as die hard of a Giants fan there is and it is all because of that thirty second moment in grammar school that I will never forget. Things have worked out quiet well in my favor too if you ask me. The Jets have won nothing since then and the Giants are about to play in their third Super Bowl, with one win.

Going to school in Massachusetts I have a hard time understanding how the Patriots are considered the favorite. There seems to be an extreme lack of confidence from the Pats’ fan base, that is usually one of the most overconfident fan bases in the entire league. The only glimmer of hope they seem to have lies with “The Hoodie”.

If the fan base’s confidence is shot, the Golden Boy’s confidence appears to be shot, and the nation as a whole seems to be picking against the Pats for the first time since their first Super Bowl victory—I just don’t see how the Patriots team can feel that great going into things. Everything starts with the quarterback, the leader of the team, and this is the most feeble Brady has EVER looked.

I think it is time I stop my incoherent rant about the Giants and the Pats and get down to my predication.

If you couldn’t tell I am taking the Giants over the Patriots 27-17. Reason being for the first time I have more confidence in Eli Manning than I do in Tom Brady and I love the swagger the Giants D-line is carrying right now. It is not the smartest idea to fuel the beast that is Tom Brady, like they are with their comments, but I have a feeling they will be able to back up their talk and force him to start “flinching” and make some mistakes. I have the Giants going up by 10 with an early fourth quarter touchdown to Hakeem Nicks and then holding the Patriots off by running down the clock.

I can’t wait for this game it should become another instant classic.

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Grading the Omar Regime: The 2005 Draft

February 4th, 2012

The majority of my memories of the Mets time under Omar Minaya are positive ones. It was the first time since I began to follow baseball with a burning passion that the Mets were a truly competitive team and it was a time that saw my favorite player of all-time, Pedro Martinez, don my  favorite team’s jersey. A lot of positive memories.

With the state of the Mets today, however, I decided I wanted to take a detailed look into Omar’s tenure with the Mets and see how much credit/blame he deserves. Granted there are many, many other people that are involved in the decision making process, but at the end of the day decisions need the general manager’s stamp of approval. I have always viewed Omar as someone from the “Isiah Thomas School of Managing”—terrific at evaluating talent, but poor at putting together a collective team so it is time to put my perception to the test.

What better way to start of this series than with his first draft as the GM of the team.

*For these graphs I only counted players who signed with the team they were drafted with in 2005. So with the Mets for example, Pedro Beato was not counted and the same with Vance Worley and the Phillies.*

Our first graph shows how many players each team has had reach the big leagues through 2011.



The Mets five players to reach the majors is slightly above the league average and tied for 10th best in the league, putting them in the top third. The players who made it are Mike Pelfrey (1.9), Drew Butera (5.149), Jon Niese (7.209), Bobby Parnell (9.269), and Josh Thole (13.389). Luis Martinez (11.329) and Pedro Beato (17.509) both also have time on major league rosters, but chose not to sign with the Mets in 2005.

Five out of 48 players, or 10.4 percent, sounds like it wasn’t a very successful year but those numbers are actually very good when put into perspective. In 2004 the Mets had 50 picks and only three have made it to the majors, four of the 50 picks in 2003 have made it, two of 48 from 2002, five of 52 picks from 2001 have major league service time and the Mets were working with four picks in the top 76, and four of 51 from 2001 draft made it even though the Mets had four picks in the top 100.

Going solely by the number of contributing draft picks, Omar’s first draft was a big improvement from the previous ones run by Steve Phillips and Jim Duquette.

Our second graphs shows the total WAR accumulated by the players through the 2011 season.



The Mets ranked 17th putting them just in the lower half of the league which isn’t great, but  it is respectable. As the next graph will show the stats really weren’t skewed that much by one great players, with the Rockies (Troy Tulowitzki), Royals (Alex Gordon), and Blue Jays (Ricky Romero) as the only teams with a total higher WAR than the Mets and have two players or less make it to the majors.

Graph three is simply taking the average WAR each player who made the big leagues as contributed.

 Here is where the numbers are thrown off because of those three teams mentioned above. With those three teams included the average WAR per player in 2.97 (pictured above), without them the average WAR per player drops considerably to 1.85. At 1.26 the Mets average WAR per player is just shy of the average when the Rockies, Royals, and Blue Jays are not included and ranks 16th overall.

Again on the surface these aren’t outstanding results, but when putting things in perspective it is quiet amazing the Mets rank this high in both categories.

With the blockbuster signings of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran (a topic for another series) the Mets forfeited their second and third round picks, with their first round pick being protected, and made their second pick at 119th overall. That is a lot of top talent going off the board in between picks. An argument can be made this actually worked in the Mets favor. One could say it allowed the Mets to draft Mike Pelfrey, who slipped because of his demands,  since they were able to put a large chunk of their budget into signing him knowing they didn’t have to pay other high round guys. And while that is a fair argument to make I can’t buy into it as being beneficial knowing with the amount of uncertainty in the MLB draft the more chances you have to strike lightning the better.

This final graph is a very basic one that shows where the true value of the Mets draft lies.



The graph simply shows the amount of players that contributed last year only on the team that drafted them. Now I used the term “contribution” loosely because my criteria was they had to suit up for at least one game. The Mets finished tied for second and all four players were key to the team in 2011, not just roster fillers. Niese and Pelfrey made up 40 percent of the rotation, Thole was the starting catcher, and Parnell made some important contributions out of the bullpen. This is considerably better than Twins who also had four player, but that consisted of a reliever with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter with an ERA in the 5′s, a starter who was only able to pitch in 12 games with an ERA in the 6′s, and a bench player who batted just .203 over 60 games.

This final fact about their draft really puts things over the top for Omar. In 2010 when Jonathan Mayo did a 2005 re-draft, he put Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese in the first round. Now I do not know how every player not included on this list has progressed since Mayo put it out, but if the list was done today I would definitely take Josh Thole over Will Venable, who was awarded the last spot in the first round.

To sum things up and put a letter grade on the 2005 draft, I think Omar deserves an A-. The draft didn’t produce any real stars for the Mets, but Pelfrey was a successful first round pick even if he frustrates fans and Niese is still improving and could turn out to be the Mets best pick of the draft. Getting Parnell was a terrific scouting job for Omar and co. to see the potential in his arm despite being a shortstop for most of his career and developing him accordingly. Easily one of the Mets best drafts in recent history. Score this one a win for Omar.

*Stats from Baseball-Reference*

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