Mets Top Prospects: Prospects #21-30

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page. I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.


21. Zach Dotson| SP | HS | Age – 19 | Drafted – 13th Round 2009 (C)

Big projecteble lefty prep lefty taken in this year’s draft and one of the few over slot picks by the Mets.  Already has a good enough fastball just needs to refine his change-up.  Very althetic and is my sleeper pick for 2010.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4/5 starter

NO STATS


22. Dillon Gee  | SP | AAA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 21st Round 2007 (C)

Gee is no fireballer, but he knows how to pitch and get things done with superb command. I thought he had a shot to pitch on the Mets last year and then he got injured and that all went down the drawn.  If he has a successful campaign early in AAA he has a shot to come up later during the year.

Perfect World Projection – #4 starter

More Likely Outcome – #5 starter/Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Buffalo Bisons1-34.109/948421641%4.07
TOTAL1-34.109/948421641%4.07

23. Brant Rustich | SP | HiA | Age – 25 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2007 (C)

Huge guy standing 6’6 230 lbs with the stuff to go along with it. His big size and big stuff have provided good results when healthy.  The problem is he is always hurt.  This is going to be a crucial year in his development as a prospect. My advice is move him back to the pen full time.

Perfect World Projection – Top Set-Up man/Closer

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets1-12.4519/348461754%2.44
TOTAL1-12.4519/348461754%2.44


24. Zach Lutz | 3B | HiA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 5th Round 2007 (C)

Just a professional hitter.  He knows what he is doing with a compact swing, but can’t play much defense. Think of him as a Daniel Murphy type of player (although I think he has a better shot to stick at 3rd than Murph).

Perfect World Projection – Solid Regular

More Likely Outcome – Role player/great pinch hitter

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLGBABIPISO
St. Lucie Mets35646191162.284.381.441.330.157
Binghamton Mets290102.207.324.241.273.034
TOTAL38546201164.278.378.426.325.148

25. Aderlin Rodriguez | 3B | GCL | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2008 (C)

The Mets big international free agent signing of 2008.  He has filled out a bit more than other Latin signees at 210 lbs and already has shown good power.  He has been an absolute pitcher in the field, but was also recovering from a broken wrist so we will see if that had anything to do with it next year.

Perfect World Projection – All-Star 3rd baseman

More Likely Outcome – MLB player

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
GCL Mets6253110.290.389.387.370.097
TOTAL6253110.290.389.387.370.097


26. Jordany Valdespin | 2B | LoA | Age – 22 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C)

All tools right now,  Valdespin has a world of talent but got into some of the field trouble that caused the Mets to suspend him several times and have him seem to “disappear”.  He has good speed and has shown a decent amount of pop.

Perfect World Projection – MLB 2nd baseman

More Likely Outcome – MLB role player

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
DSL Mets150005.333.421.600.357.267
GCL Mets230000.174.208.174.200.000
Brooklyn Cyclones6810315.279.329.397.353.118
Savannah Sand Gnats153309317.320.366.477.390.157
TOTAL2594012427.297.350.436.360.139

27. Tobi Stoner | SP | MLB | Age – 25 | Drafted – 16th round 2006 (C)

Start who gets away with fringe stuff at best.  What he is able to do well is incorporate a 4 pitch arsenal that he can throw for strikes.  If he can refine his curve or slider a little more he has a shot to stick as a starter.

Perfect World Projection – #5 starter innings eater

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Binghamton Mets2-22.687/747281340%4.24
Buffalo Bisons7-73.9616/1697.2643442%4.15
New York Mets0-04.004/095337%5.84
TOTAL9-93.5927/23153.2975040%4.25


28. Robbie Shields | SS | SSA | Age – 22 | Drafted– 2nd round 2009 (C)

Was highly regarded after his sophomore season, but fell down some draft boards after a subpar junior season.  Was terrible in Brooklyn, but he still has good tools and I thought he looked better in Brooklyn then his stats will lead you to believe.  He would rank higher if not for Tommy John surgery which could make the predicted move off of short come sooner rather than later.

Perfect World Projection – MLB starting shortstop

More Likely Outcome – Bench player

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Brooklyn Cyclones14614419.178.269.267.221.089
TOTAL14614419.178.269.267.221.089


29. Eduardo Aldama | SP | Rk | Age – 20 | Drafted – IFA 2006 (C)

Young Latin player with a live arm was fairly successful in Kingsport.  He strikes out a lot of batters and maintains a nice GB% giving him a great combo of K’s and GBs..  Serious sleeper for 2010.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – Middle relief

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Kingsport Mets5-13.7912/1261.2572355%3.46
Savannah Sand Gnats0-121.001/133255%7.53
TOTAL5-24.6213/1364.2602555%3.56


30. Carlos Guzman | RF | AA | Age – 23 | Drafted – UFA 2006 (C)

Very underrated prospect.  He is a New York boy who went undrafted, but has done nothing but hit since he signed with the Mets.  A big kid with great power numbers for the FSL.  Hopefully he doesn’t go the Brahiam Moldonado route and take five steps back this season.

Perfect World Projection – MLB outfielder

More Likely Outcome – 4th outfielder/AAAA player

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
St. Lucie Mets47259281564.290.346.453.337.163
Binghamton Mets232013.130.200.261.133.131
TOTAL49561281667.283.343.444.329.162

Dontrelle Willis to be Released?

Ed Ryan at Mets Fever speculates that former Florida Marlin superstar Dontrelle Willis could be released by the Tigers after this spring.  Ryan believes that if the Tigers do indeed end up releasing Willis for salary reasons even though he is finally finding some success in spring training (1-0 0.90) then the Mets will swoop in and sign  him to a minor league deal as a reclamation project.

The old saying goes “you can never have too much pitching”, but I still don’t see a D-Train in New York even if it is on a minor league deal.  The Mets have an abundance of starters right now just like Dontrelle.  There is Jon Niese and Fernando Nieve competing for the #5 spot on the Mets rotation. New comer Hisanori Takahashi turning heads and then there is Nelson Figueroa and Tobi Stoner.  And I would probably take all 5 if not definitely at least 4 of them over D-Train.

The only way the Mets need to bring in a starting pitcher is if he is an established #3 or better.  Plus despite the gaudy ERA D-Train’s command has been a bit erratic with 5 walks and 2 hit batsmen in just 10 innings.  Sorry we already have enough erratic lefties with past success on this team(I’m looking at you Oliver Perez). Let’s take a pass on this one.

Jose Reyes Thyroids Somewhat Serious Concern

In reading about the interview with a thyroid specialist on WFAN it eased some of the concerns I had about Jose Reyes and his thyroid issue as it should bring some peace of mind to you. Obviously anytime you are dealing with the heart their are some major potential problems, but it just doesn’t sound like this will cause too many complications for Reyes. The specialist said that she warns her patients to cut out strenuous activity until their levels cut back, which takes anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks and that the average is 3-4 weeks. As a top athlete in peak physical condition you would think Reyes would be able to make that recovery in less than the two month high it takes to recover.

The positives are that the Mets found out about this early in spring training giving Reyes time to recover before the season begins. Right now this injury is causing a “battle” for the shortstop position between Alex Cora and 20-year-old prospect Ruben Tejada. But there really shouldn’t be. Tejada still has to mature physically before coming up to the show and this isn’t a serious enough injury to waste precious service time on. The recovery process for Reyes isn’t asking for Tommy John surgery, it’s simply requires rest. Cora is more than capable of picking up the slack for a couple of weeks to a month at most.

Mets Have Worst Scouting Director in MLB?

Andy Seiler did a ranking of all the scouting directors in Major League Baseball for his blog MLB Bonus Baby.  You are never going to guess who came in at #30 for last place…

30. New York Mets, Rudy Terrasas: I have to go with the director that was almost on the chopping block at the end of season in 2009. Terrasas is in a difficult predicament, having few resources and picking hit-or-miss players, making his job even more difficult. The few resources he’s given are sometimes wasted on players that have no future as Major League players. For that reason, he gets the last spot on the list.

Yes, the Mets have had bad drafts lately, but they are definitely not the worst scouting team in baseball.  Since Rudy Terrasas took over the Mets have produced major leaguers in Kevin Mulvey, Joe Smith, Daniel Murphy, Tobi Stoner, and Eddie Kunz.  Not to mention the 2008 draft that saw Ike Davis, Reese Havens, Brad Holt, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Kyle Allen.

The Cardinals on the other hand since Jeff Lunhow have taken over have flopped 1st round picks Adam Ottavino, Tyler Herron, Mark Mccormick, and arguably Pete Kozma.  The only draft picks that pop out to me are Chris Perez, Colby Rasmus, Mitch Boggs, and Tyler Greene.  That is also with an extra year of drafting and much much more money to spend.  Their last two drafts have looked a little better, but that is just because of top talents who fell to them (Shelby Miller and Brett Wallace).  Somehow though they have found their found their way to #24 on the list.

The Mets are just always taking crap for their drafting, but if you look at their roster they have the homegrown talents of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan, Bobby Parnell, Mike Jacobs, Fernando Martinez and Jason Bay went through the system even though he wasn’t drafted or signed by the Mets.  Its the whole perception that the Mets farm sucks that makes people give them dead last rankings like this.  I don’t see how a team that currently has a farm in the #13-18 range can have the worst scouting director in the league.  If anyone can fill me in on how this makes sense it would be greatly appreciated.

Update: Look at this list. Anyone still care to say the Cardinals have a better scouting director.

Song of the Day: Drake – Over

Mets Top 50 Prospects: Prospects 11-20

For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change.You can find a full listing of the Top 50 Prospects of 2010 Archive Page.  I will be releasing the rest of the list soon.


11. Jeurys Familia | SP | LoA | Age – 19 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)

Good pitchers build standing 6’3 185 lbs with room to add some more muscle.  He throws a fastball at 90-93 mph touching 94 with good movement.  He uses a slurve type breaking ball at 78-80 mph that he needs to tighten up if he wants it to be a true out pitch in the bigs.  His worst pitch by far is his  81-83 mph change up with little movement.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats10-62.6924/23134.01094653%3.45
TOTAL10-62.6924/23134.01094653%3.45


12. Steven Matz | SP | HS | Age – 18 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2009 (C+)

The Mets top pick from the 2009 draft has some serious upside.  The big 6’2 lefty is a New York native who probably would have went higher in the draft had he lived in California or Florida. He has three pitch arsenal that features a 88-90 mph fastball that has topped out at 93.  Also throws a change up, curveball, and newly added slider.

Perfect World Projection – #2 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

NO STATS


13. Ruben Tejada | SS | AA | Age – 20 | Drafted – 2006 IFA (C+)

Young, udnersized slick fielding shortstop from Panama only a generous 5’11 165 lbs.  He swings for contact, but isn’t quiet the slap hitter of Luis Castilllo, but knows what to do with the glove.  Could move to 2nd, but will have competition no matter where he goes with Jose Reyes in NY and Reese Havens in the minors.

Perfect World Projection – Average shortstop with the bat, but has great defense

More Likely Outcome – Great defensive shortstop with no bat

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Binghamton Mets4885924546.289.343.381.321.092
TOTAL4885924546.289.343.381.321.092


14. Juan Urbina | SP | HS | Age – 16 | Drafted – IFA 2009 (C+)

The son of former major league pitcher Ugeth Urbina.  Hopefully one day he will get the same nickname as his father “Butcher”, but for cutting up Philly hitters not actual people(or at least chasing them with knives).  I always like a young pitcher whose best pitch is a change up and is able to pump out a fastball at 90 mph already.

Perfect World Projection – #2 starter (?)

More Likely Outcome – #4 starter

NO STATS


15. Cesar Puello | OF | Rk | Age – 18 | Drafted – 2007 IFA (C+)

Big, strong kid who signed along with Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte with the Mets in 2007.  He is the only one still in rookie ball, but this is mostly do to the injury bug.  Has above average speed to go along with an above average arm he does everything pretty well.  Major sleeper in 2010 could break out big if he can stay healthy.

Perfect World Projection – All-Star caliber outfielder

More Likely Outcome – Everyday MLB outfielder

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Binghamton Mets198246117.298.372.429.380.131
TOTAL198246117.298.372.429.38.131


16. Eric Niesen | SP | AA | Age – 24 | Drafted – 3rd Round 2007 (C+)

Smaller lefty with a filthy fastball.  It has good velocity coming in in the low 90′s and touching the mid 90′s, but it is so effective due to its late life and movement.  Has ridiculous late tailing actual that breaks in on the hands of lefties.  His slider also has potential of being a plus pitch with with good, tight downward tilt.

Perfect World Projection – #4 starter

More Likely Outcome – LOOGY

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets3-43.2811/1157.2491646%3.53
Binghamton Mets4-74.6616/1683.0854139%3.64
TOTAL7-114.1127/27140.21345742%3.58


17. Jefry Marte | 3B | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – IFA 2007 (C+)

This ranking might be a bit harsh, but so was Marte’s 2009.  He hit an abysmal .233 and his BABIP wasn’t even that low at .291, he simply just did not hit.  Right now this is playing out as one of the cases the Mets rush a prospect to the point of failure.  Still has age and upside, but he is going to have to show some more offense in 2010 to make up for his terrible defense.

Perfect World Projection – Slugging 3rd baseman

More Likely Outcome – Everyday 3rd baseman

TEAMABR2BHRRBI.AVG.OBP.SLG.BABIP.ISO
Savannah Sand Gnats4855821641.233.278.338.396.105
TOTAL4855821641.233.278.338.396.105


18. Eric Beaulac | SP | LoA | Age – 23 | Drafted – 9th Round 2008 (C)

My personal favorite and an extremely underrated prospect.  New York native and Mets fan doesn’t have the most or more consistent stuff, but gets the job done.  His fastball as been clocked as low as 86 mph and as high as 94 mph, but mostly stays in the 88-90 mph range.  His best pitch is a slider which has a good downward bite at 81 mph and is a true strikeout pitch.  The lack of a change up lead most to believe he is best suited for a bullpen role as does Beaulac himself.

Best Case Outcome – #4 starter

More Likely Outcome – Relief pitcher

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats7-72.9526/19116.01334148%3.45
TOTAL7-72.9526/19116.01334148%3.13


19. Robert Carson | SP | LoA | Age – 18 | Drafted – 14th Round 2007 (C)

I actually think I might be ranking him a bit low here at 19.  Sure has the stuff and stats to be up there Allen and Familia, but just isn’t quiet as polished.  Fastball sits 88-90 touching 92 and hitters can’t seem to square it up.  Also uses a 84-86 mph slider and 78-80 mph change up.  Even if he has pubicly stated he doesn’t look for the strikeout he needs to strikeout more batters.  Love the ground balls.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Likely Outcome – #4/5 starter

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
Savannah Sand Gnats8-103.2125/25131.2904557%3.65
TOTAL8-103.2125/25131.2904557%3.65


20. Scott Moviel | SP | HiA | Age – 21 | Drafted – 2nd Round 2007 (C)

Looks like a tree trunk on the mound being listed anywhere from 6’9 to 6’11 and 245 lbs.  Actually had a pretty solid year considering he was trying to recover from knee surgery.  Needs to work on his mechanics and command as the stuff is already there.

Perfect World Projection – #3 starter

More Liketly Outcome – #5 starter/Set up Man

TEAMW-LERAG/GSIPSOBBGB%FIP
St. Lucie Mets4-53.9213/1364.1462447%3.81
TOTAL4-53.9213/1364.1462447%3.81